Experts warn Turkey remains unprepared for next major quake

Yahoo

06-02-2025

Two years after the devastating earthquakes in south-eastern Turkey, scientists are warning that the country remains unprepared for anticipated future quakes, putting hundreds of thousands at risk.
The warning comes as the country still strives to heal the scars from the February 2023 twin-quake disaster that killed more than 53,000 and left over 100,000 wounded in Turkey.
Turkey sits on the notorious Northern Anatolian fault line, which lies close to the the country's largest metropolis and financial hub Istanbul. A 7.4-magnitude earthquake in 1999, east of Istanbul, killed more than 17,000 people.
Scientists estimate that an earthquake of around magnitude-7 is overdue in Istanbul, with a population of 16 million people.
In Istanbul alone, around 100,000 buildings are at high risk of collapsing where "hundreds of thousands" could die, earthquake researcher Naci Görür told dpa.
The financial impact of such a disaster could reach billions of dollars, according to experts.
Neither the authorities nor the locals are seriously aware of the danger, said Görür, adding measures to make cities in Turkey earthquake-resistant are not sufficient.
Many buildings vulnerable to collapse in a major quake have yet to be rebuilt or reinforced warns Sükrü Ersoy, geology professor at Istanbul's Yildiz Technical University.
"And given the high population density, damage is difficult to avoid even with appropriate planning," Ersoy said.
Turkish Urban Development Minister Murat Kurum said Istanbul would not be able to withstand an earthquake. A total of 1.5 million homes and commercial units are considered to be at high risk.
The Istanbul-based Kandilli earthquake observatory puts the probability of an earthquake with a magnitude of over 7 by 2030 at %60.
The epicentre of the expected earthquake is about 15 kilometres from the city in the Sea of Marmara, where a tectonic plate boundary runs.
Around 400,000 people still live in temporary container cities in Turkey's south-east two years since the devastating twin-quake, the country's disaster authority AFAD told dpa.
Nearly 40,000 buildings collapsed in the 2023 quakes, according to AFAD data. More than another 200,000 buildings were severely damaged across 11 cities and provinces.
Experts back then contended the buildings had major construction defects while the government had come under fire over lack of audits.
The government promised all of the displaced would be relocated to newly built homes by the end of 2025. Many homes were rebuilt and many more are under condition.
Local unions, however, see rebuilding efforts as taking much longer.
Building of all the required new units would take another four years, according to the Turkish Chamber of Construction Engineers (IMO).
Besides, locals in the quake region still face health, environmental and logistical issues, including power cuts and sanitary conditions amid ongoing rubble removal efforts, IMO chairwoman Sinem Kolgu told reporters in Istanbul on Thursday.
"New disasters are at our doorstep as long as professional unions are ignored and those in charge are not held accountable for not taking precautions for so many years," warned Kolgu.