Germany vs Spain Euro 2025 semi-final odds, prediction: World champions expected to go through

New York Times

23-07-2025

This should be a straightforward result. Spain, the all-conquering world champions, are on the verge of reaching their second straight major final. They've won nine games in a row. At this tournament alone, they've scored a total of 16 goals and conceded just three.
They're up against a Germany side that have already been thrashed 4-1 during this tournament and one that scraped through to the semi-finals on penalties. And yet, there is hope for the Germans — enough to make them think they can cause another shock. At this stage of a European Championship, anything can happen.
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Germany — the eight-time winners of this tournament and the two-time world champions — have not won a major trophy for almost 10 years and are going through a tricky spell as they aim to work their way back to the summit of women's football.
Against France, they looked down and out. Germany were down to 10 players in the 13th minute after Kathrin Hendrich's moment of madness and down 1-0 against a talented French team that looked like dark horses to win the competition.
But the Germans fought tooth and nail to get back level with a numerical disadvantage and did so in the first half through Chelsea's Sjoeke Nüsken. After grinding through extra time with fewer players, they held their nerve to convert six of their seven penalty attempts in the shootout.
Goalkeeper Ann-Katrin Berger was the hero on the night, making a string of fantastic stops before thwarting Alice Sombath to take Germany through to the last four. Germany faced 10 shots against France and Berger made nine saves. She even scored a penalty herself.
Spain, who had a relatively comfortable evening by comparison as they cruised past Switzerland 2-0, might suddenly think that their task against the Germans could be a challenging one after all. The host nation still made Spain work for their victory as they were forced to wait until the 66th minute for the opening goal through substitute Athenea del Castillo, before Claudia Pina made sure of their passage to the semis with the second goal five minutes later. Spain also missed two penalties through Alexia Putellas — one at the start of the game and the other after they had a two-goal cushion.
So things aren't looking completely rosy for the 2023 World Cup winners, even though they've won all four of their games at Euro 2025 by at least two goals. There is still some fragility in the foundation — perhaps only small ones — but enough for Germany to possibly exploit if they can put together a smart game plan.
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It's no surprise that Spain are the favourites to make it through to another final. Betfair are backing them at 1/4, while Germany are understandably outsiders at 10/3, but they still have every chance of upsetting their rivals.
At this stage of the tournament, both teams can sense glory. Spain have a real chance of laying down a marker and announcing themselves as the dominant force by winning back-to-back major tournaments. But as France discovered, Germany can be a menace even when their backs are up against the wall. Winning is in their DNA. They're the most successful team in European history and they will put up one hell of a fight.
Odds (for regular time) via Betfair
Time: Wednesday, 8 p.m. BST (3 p.m. ET)
Venue: Stadion Letzigrund, Zurich
Spain 2, Germany 1
Spain will have to produce a much better display than the one they offered against Switzerland. Not everything went their way in the quarter-finals against the underdog hosts, even though they eventually got the win they needed. Germany is a big step up and Spain won't be able to make the same mistakes they did in the last round. Any missed opportunities against a team like Germany will be punished, so they'll have to step things up. I think it will be a battle that could end up going either way, but I'm not going against the tournament favourites Spain.
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(Photo of Aitana Bonmati: Eddie Keogh / Getty Images)