
Texas floods reveal limitations of disaster forecasting under climate crisis
As of early Sunday, hundreds of rescuers are searching for at least 12 people still missing as rains taper off outside of San Antonio and Austin. Hundreds of people have already been pulled from floodwaters that have killed nearly 70 people so far, many of them children at a summer camp along the banks of the Guadalupe River.
July is peak flash flood season in the US, and central Texas is known as 'flash flood alley' because the necessary ingredients of tropical moisture and slow-moving storms come together often over hilly terrain there. National Weather Service (NWS) forecasters caution that more floods could come this weekend and into next week.
The scale of this latest climate disaster became apparent on Saturday as drone footage taken on Saturday morning showed entire neighborhoods inundated and rushing waters streaming through small town streets. Tales of survival and heartbreak were plentiful.
An initial analysis of the downpours and the decisions by forecasters that led up to them by the Guardian shows that rainfall of this magnitude was exceedingly rare and difficult to predict, even for this flood-prone region.
Friday's totals of more than 10in (25cm) of rain in three hours could be expected just once in a 'typical' 500-year period for Kerrville, Texas – three months' worth of rain in just a few hours. Radar data show that more than 4in per hour fell during the peak of Friday's rains. That rainfall intensity was in excess of a similar flash flood in 1987 that also ended in tragedy for campers along the Guadalupe.
Saturday's rainfall totals actually exceeded Friday's rainfall for a region slightly north of Friday's peak rains. Nearly 14in of rain fell in five hours just west of Austin, Texas – rains that would be expected just once in nearly 1,000 years given a stable climate.
Despite funding cuts and widespread staffing shortages implemented by the Trump administration, NWS forecasters in both the local San Angelo office and at the NWS national specialty center responsible for excessive rainfall provided a series of watches and warnings in the days and hours leading up to Friday's flooding disaster.
The forecast office in San Angelo has two current vacancies – typical for the pre-Trump era and fewer than the current average staff shortage across the NWS – and has not been experiencing any lapses in weather balloon data collection that have plagued some other offices.
In fact, weather balloon data gathered on Thursday from Del Rio showed record amounts of moisture present in the upper atmosphere above central Texas and added to the confidence that severe flash flooding was possible. The Del Rio office then began issuing a series of flood watches starting on Thursday afternoon that cautioned the region to prepare for 'excessive runoff' from '5 to 7 inches of rain'.
The NWS's Weather Prediction Center, based in College Park, Maryland, also issued a series of mesoscale precipitation discussions on Thursday – highly detailed advance notices to other weather forecasters that a particularly rare event might be underway. In one of the discussions, forecasters noted that moisture content in central Texas was 'above the 99th climatological percentile' – far in excess of normal and a clue that historic flooding was possible.
In a final escalation, the NWS office in San Angelo issued a flash flood emergency about an hour before the water started rapidly rising beyond flood stage at the closest US Geological Survey river monitoring gauge. A flash flood emergency is the highest level of flood warning available to the NWS, and sufficient to set off the Wireless Emergency Alert system, which would have triggered cellphone alarms in the region.
The National Weather Service issued dozens of additional flash flood warnings throughout the day on Friday and Saturday after the second wave of extremely heavy rains compounded the flooding's scope across central Texas during the early morning hours.
Even though watches and warnings were issued on time throughout the disaster – contrasting what local officials have said in press conferences – rainfall totals specified in the first flash flood watch were about half of what ultimately fell.
Current weather forecasting technology is capable of knowing that near-record rainfall may occur somewhere in a given region about a day in advance, but knowing exactly how much and in which part of a specific river's drainage basin over hilly terrain makes flood forecasting much more difficult – analogous to prediction exactly which neighborhood a tornado might strike a day ahead of time. Donald Trump's staffing cuts have particularly hit the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Environmental Modeling Center, which aims to improve the skill of these types of difficult forecasts.
Though it's unclear to what extent staffing shortages across the NWS complicated the advance notice that local officials had of an impending flooding disaster, it's clear that this was a complex, compound tragedy of a type that climate warming is making more frequent.
Rainfall intensity in central Texas has been trending upward for decades, and this week's rains were enhanced by the remnants of Tropical Storm Barry, which made landfall in northern Mexico last week. Barry's circulation pulled record amounts of atmospheric moisture up to central Texas from the near-record warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico.
The mix of Barry's circulation and climate warming helped create conditions of record-high atmospheric moisture content over central Texas – in line with the trend towards increasing atmospheric moisture content globally as the world warms and the air can hold more water vapor.
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Daily Mail
6 hours ago
- Daily Mail
Critical mistake made by county officials during Texas floods that could have saved countless lives
Officials in the Texas county where more than 100 people have died from the July 4 flash flood did not use technology that would have sent Amber Alert-like messages to everyone in the vicinity of the Guadalupe River, according to a bombshell new report. Kerr County officials did not use the more powerful notification tool they had even after a National Weather Service meteorologist warned them about the potential for catastrophic risk, per The Washington Post. The meteorologist, identified as Jason Runyen, posted his warnings in a Slack channel that local officials and reporters were in. He was unfortunately proven right. In the early morning hours of July 4 the river rose at least 30 feet in Hunt, Texas, near where Camp Mystic was. More than two dozen children and staff from the all-girl Christian summer camp were killed. Across the county, about 160 people thought to be washed away by the flood remain missing. Experts say Kerr County officials could have used the Integrated Public Alert & Warning System, or IPAWS, to save more people who were in bed sleeping at the time the waters were rising. IPAWS are similar to Amber Alerts in that they force phones to vibrate and emit a loud, jarring tone as long as they're on and have a signal. Abdul-Akeem Sadiq, a professor at the University of Central Florida who researches emergency management, told the Post that local authorities not sending IPAWS messages to targeted areas was a critical mistake. The National Weather Service did send alerts to Kerr County through IPAWS, but Sadiq argued that if they had also come from local officials, residents would have trusted them more and perhaps listened. 'If the alert had gone out, there might be one or two people who might have still been able to receive that message, who now, through word of mouth, alert people around them,' Sadiq said. He spoke about the phenomenon of people in frequently-flooded areas like this area of Texas ignoring alerts because they come so often. And usually, they amount to not that much. The National Weather Service issued 22 alerts through IPAWS on July 4, and each message used increasingly dire language. County officials, though, also have the added knowledge of the area that federal weather forecasters might not. If they had sent IPAWS alerts earlier, they could have described risks to certain neighborhoods or provided more specific guidance on how to stay safe, experts said. Instead, county officials used a more limited warning system called CodeRED. When activated, it send voice messages to landlines listed in the White Pages and text messages to cellphones of people who have signed up, the Post reported. Some locals didn't get CodeRED messages until 10:55am, according to screenshots obtained by the Post. That was over five hours after the river reached its highest recorded level. It's unclear why Kerr County leaders opted not to use IPAWS in the early stages of the July 4 natural disaster, especially when they've used it in the past to warn about much less dangerous threats. William B. 'Dub' Thomas, Kerr County's emergency management coordinator, used IPAWS last July to warn that the Guadalupe River could rise four feet, the Post reported. The alert told residents to avoid low-level river crossings and move their belongings away from the river. That flash flood came and went with no major injuries. Kerr County officials did eventually use IPAWS; it was activated on July 6, two days after the worst of the flooding. That alert was sent out because they were worried about another round of rising water levels. Daily Mail approached Thomas for comment on the disaster response. A communications team representing state and local officials said in a statement to the Post that county leaders are focused primarily on rescue and reunification and are 'committed to a transparent and full review of processes and protocols.' This revelation that IPAWS went unused comes as Kerr County officials are facing harsher scrutiny as time goes on. During a Tuesday press conference, one reporter asked Kerr County Sheriff Larry Leitha if anyone at emergency management office had been awake to push a button to send an emergency alert. Leitha snapped back, 'Sir, it's not that easy to just push a button. And we've told you several times.'


Daily Mail
13 hours ago
- Daily Mail
Melania makes rare public statement with tribute to Camp Mystic girls
Melania Trump made a rare public statement on Friday as she paid tribute to the children who died in the terrible Texas floods. 'My deepest sympathy to all of the parents who lost beautiful young souls,' she said after touring the devastation with President Donald Trump. 'We are grieving with you.' The first couple toured damaged areas along the Guadalupe River in Kerrville, one of the towns devastated by the storms that have killed at least 120. They also were briefed by officials and took the opportunity to thank first responders. And they later privately met with family members of the victims. 'We pray with them, we hug, we hold hands,' the first lady said of that time. Melania Trump showed off a bracelet that she was given in honor of the victims from Camp Mystic, where at least 27 girls and counselors died in the flash floods. 'I met beautiful young ladies. They gave me this special bracelet from the camp in honor of all of the little girls that lost their lives. So we are here to honor them and also to give the support,' she said, holding up her arm with a silver charm bracelet on it. The first lady rarely speaks in public but made a heartfelt statement of support to the grieving and vowed to return to the area. 'I will be back. I promise to them. And I just pray for them and giving them my strength and love,' she said. More than 100 people are still missing a week after Texas Hill Country was hit by heavy rain and flash floods that destroyed homes and left families picking up the pieces. Emergency workers and volunteers are still searching through the debris and there are hopes some trapped residents could be found alive. But the death toll could still rise in the coming days. She and the president stayed close during the tour and shared a tender moment before they left for Texas. Outside the White House, Trump put his arm around the First Lady who was casually dressed in jeans, sneakers and a light jacket. Trump wore a blue suit and white shirt but no ties From Texas they will head to Bedminster, New Jersey, and the Trump National Golf Club there. On Sunday, they'll quietly mark the one-year anniversary of the assassination attempt on Trump in Butler, Pa. The Trump family will be together in the morning and, that afternoon, Melania Trump will accompany the president to MetLife Stadium in New Jersey to watch the Club World Cup Final match. But, first they'll mark a somber Friday in Texas. Their visit comes a week after heavy rainfall caused the Guadalupe River in Kerr County to rise 26 feet in less than an hour, killing at least 121, including dozens of children at the nearby Christian summer camp, Camp Mystic. Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem and Texas Gov. Greg Abbott joined the Trumps on the trip. Texas Senators Ted Cruz and John Cornyn traveled with the Trumps on Air Force One. Meanwhile, the death toll continues to rise, with more than 160 people still missing. Trump approved a major disaster declaration for Texas earlier this week. The president, unlike in other disasters, has not cast blame on anyone for the tragedy, calling it a horrible accident. 'I would just say this is a hundred-year catastrophe, and it's just so horrible to watch,' the president said on Sunday. It was a marked difference from his comments on California and the devastating wildfires in that state. Trump was loud and vocal in his criticism of Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom. Some of the hardest-hit areas of central Texas are places of strong Republican support that voted for Trump in the 2024 election. The White House also has pushed back at criticism that FEMA and the National Weather Service was understaffed, making early warning efforts more difficult. 'Blaming President Trump for these floods is a depraved lie, and it serves no purpose during this time of national mourning,' White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said at her briefing on Monday. And, in a Cabinet meeting this week, Trump praised Noem for her department's handling of the response. The Department of Homeland Security oversees the Federal Emergency Management Agency. 'You had people there as fast as anybody's ever seen,' the president told Noem. Texas Gov. Greg Abbott, a Republican and close ally of the president, said Trump was saddened by the event, particularly over the loss of the children. 'He could not stop talking about how sad he was for all the little girls who have lost their lives,' said Abbott, who has spoken with Trump repeatedly. 'He recounted his own understanding of what happened with what was really a tsunami wave, a wall of water, that swept too many of them away.'


Daily Mail
13 hours ago
- Daily Mail
Melania Trump makes rare public statement with tribute to Camp Mystic girls caught up in catastrophic Texas floods
Melania Trump made a rare public statement on Friday as she paid tribute to the children who died in the terrible Texas floods. 'My deepest sympathy to all of the parents who lost beautiful young souls,' she said after touring the devastation with President Donald Trump. 'We are grieving with you.' The first couple toured damaged areas along the Guadalupe River in Kerrville, one of the towns devastated by the storms that have killed at least 120. They also were briefed by officials and took the opportunity to thank first responders. And they later privately met with family members of the victims. 'We pray with them, we hug, we hold hands,' the first lady said of that time. Melania Trump showed off a bracelet that she was given in honor of the victims from Camp Mystic, where at least 27 girls and counselors died in the flash floods. 'I met beautiful young ladies. They gave me this special bracelet from the camp in honor of all of the little girls that lost their lives. So we are here to honor them and also to give the support,' she said, holding up her arm with a silver charm bracelet on it. The first lady rarely speaks in public but made a heartfelt statement of support to the grieving and vowed to return to the area. 'I will be back. I promise to them. And I just pray for them and giving them my strength and love,' she said. More than 100 people are still missing a week after Texas Hill Country was hit by heavy rain and flash floods that destroyed homes and left families picking up the pieces. Emergency workers and volunteers are still searching through the debris and there are hopes some trapped residents could be found alive. But the death toll could still rise in the coming days. She and the president stayed close during the tour and shared a tender moment before they left for Texas. Outside the White House, Trump put his arm around the First Lady who was casually dressed in jeans, sneakers and a light jacket. Trump wore a blue suit and white shirt but no ties From Texas they will head to Bedminster, New Jersey, and the Trump National Golf Club there. On Sunday, they'll quietly mark the one-year anniversary of the assassination attempt on Trump in Butler, Pa. The Trump family will be together in the morning and, that afternoon, Melania Trump will accompany the president to MetLife Stadium in New Jersey to watch the Club World Cup Final match. But, first they'll mark a somber Friday in Texas. Their visit comes a week after heavy rainfall caused the Guadalupe River in Kerr County to rise 26 feet in less than an hour, killing at least 121, including dozens of children at the nearby Christian summer camp, Camp Mystic. Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem and Texas Gov. Greg Abbott joined the Trumps on the trip. Texas Senators Ted Cruz and John Cornyn traveled with the Trumps on Air Force One. Meanwhile, the death toll continues to rise, with more than 160 people still missing. Trump approved a major disaster declaration for Texas earlier this week. The president, unlike in other disasters, has not cast blame on anyone for the tragedy, calling it a horrible accident. 'I would just say this is a hundred-year catastrophe, and it's just so horrible to watch,' the president said on Sunday. It was a marked difference from his comments on California and the devastating wildfires in that state. Trump was loud and vocal in his criticism of Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom. Some of the hardest-hit areas of central Texas are places of strong Republican support that voted for Trump in the 2024 election. The White House also has pushed back at criticism that FEMA and the National Weather Service was understaffed, making early warning efforts more difficult. 'Blaming President Trump for these floods is a depraved lie, and it serves no purpose during this time of national mourning,' White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said at her briefing on Monday. And, in a Cabinet meeting this week, Trump praised Noem for her department's handling of the response. The Department of Homeland Security oversees the Federal Emergency Management Agency. 'You had people there as fast as anybody's ever seen,' the president told Noem. Texas Gov. Greg Abbott, a Republican and close ally of the president, said Trump was saddened by the event, particularly over the loss of the children. 'He could not stop talking about how sad he was for all the little girls who have lost their lives,' said Abbott, who has spoken with Trump repeatedly. 'He recounted his own understanding of what happened with what was really a tsunami wave, a wall of water, that swept too many of them away.' 'And he cares a lot about those young ladies. And he wants to step up and make sure that any need that we have here in Texas is going to be met very quickly,' Abbott added.