Fantasy Baseball Bullpen Brief: Advanced stats continue to tell interesting stories for key closers

Yahoo

16-05-2025

Fantasy baseball analyst Dalton Del Don scans for save sources and provides updates on evolving bullpen situations.
Shelby Miller has recorded Arizona's last two saves, while Kevin Ginkel has made just one appearance since getting blown up for five runs last week. Miller (27% rostered) has been solid, posting an 18.4 K-BB% and a 3.19 SIERA, and he's the current favorite for saves in the Diamondbacks' pen.
Meanwhile, Justin Martinez (55%) is expected to throw to live hitters this week and is ahead of A.J. Puk (24%) in their recoveries. A healthy Martinez will presumably take over closing duties, but he's a question mark. Only the Dodgers have provided more save opportunities than Arizona (23) this season.
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Raisel Iglesias' 5.71 ERA is accompanied by a 2.93 SIERA. His 20.8 K-BB% is right in line with last season, when he finished with a 1.95 ERA. Iglesias' 30.0 HR/FB% is the fifth-highest among 185 qualified relievers. His average exit velocity is in the bottom 20% of the league one season after being in the top 3%. Iglesias' velocity is a bit down (94.8 mph), and it's possible he's suddenly become much more hittable at 35 years old, but the likelier bet is regression to the mean.
Iglesias is seemingly on a shorter leash after three straight shaky appearances (Pierce Johnson got a save Tuesday with Iglesias unavailable), but he locked down Thursday's save and appears to have his manager's confidence.
Ryan Pressly has pitched just 1.1 innings over the last nine days since getting clobbered for eight earned runs without recording an out. He hasn't tallied a save since April 13, although at least Pressly was used in a high-leverage situation last appearance. Lefty Drew Pomeranz recorded the Cubs' last save, but Porter Hodge (15%) was likely unavailable having pitched on back-to-back days. Hodge owns a 5.40 ERA and a 1.53 WHIP, but he appears to be the favorite for saves in Chicago. It remains highly likely the Cubs trade for their eventual closer.
Jesús Tinoco has somewhat quietly completely overtaken Miami's closer's role over the last month. Calvin Faucher's last save came April 22, and Tinoco was likely unavailable having recorded saves the previous two days. Tinoco has tallied every Marlins save opportunity since then, including two wins and a save (and a loss) over the last 10 days. Miami won't provide a ton of opportunities, but Tinoco is closing and available in 96% of Yahoo leagues.
Luke Weaver (61%) looks like the current favorite for saves in New York and should be rostered in all fantasy leagues. However, Devin Williams has made three straight scoreless appearances (and six of his last seven). Williams (84%) needs to be stashed with the Yankees likely turning back to him at some point, but he can be benched for now.
José Alvarado continues to pitch well, but he's recorded just one save since April 19. Meanwhile, Jordan Romano has picked up the Phillies' last two saves. Romano has allowed zero runs with a 0.50 WHIP and an 8:0 K:BB ratio over his last six innings (he also has three saves over the six appearances). It makes sense Romano got off to a slow start while coming off elbow surgery, but he's looked far better recently.
Jordan Romano, K'ing the Side. pic.twitter.com/FUzvNO35ds
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) May 14, 2025
Romano was dropped in many fantasy leagues after losing the closer's role, but his 8.22 ERA comes with a 3.44 SIERA. The Phillies will still mix-and-match with lefties Alvarado and Matt Strahm, but Romano suddenly looks like the favorite for saves in Philadelphia's pen again. He's available in nearly 60% of Yahoo leagues and has the upside to be a top 10 fantasy closer moving forward.
Just when it looked like David Bednar (44%) was locked back in as the Pirates' closer, new manager Rob Kelly has reentered Dennis Santana into the mix. Pittsburgh has totaled just one save so far during May. A timeshare on a Pirates team that's 15-29 is a tough situation for fantasy.
Jeff Hoffman has quickly watched his ERA balloon from 1.10 to 6.05 during his last five appearances (three innings). Hoffman's 6.05 ERA is accompanied by a 1.64 SIERA and a 33.3 K-BB% that ranks fourth among 185 qualified relievers. However, Yimi García (10%) recorded his third save of the season during Toronto's last chance, which was one day after Hoffman's latest blowup.
Hoffman's leash is undoubtedly shorter having allowed 11 earned runs over his last three innings, but he's likely to remain the Blue Jays' closer barring further setbacks. His peripherals are elite, so hopefully this latest stretch is just an ugly blip. But García would provide insurance. The Blue Jays are tied for the second-most save opportunities (23) this year.