World leaders to meet for NATO Summit as tensions between allies upend military bloc's cohesion
NATO is pledging to ramp up defence spending, in line with demands by US President Donald Trump. The military alliance will meet in The Hague this week at a time of intense conflict in Europe and the Middle East. CNA's Genevieve Woo finds out how tension between Washington and its European allies could impact the relevance, or even the survival, of NATO.
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Straits Times
an hour ago
- Straits Times
EXPLAINER-What is NATO's new 5% defence spending target?
A view shows the venue of the upcoming NATO summit, in The Hague, Netherlands June 23, 2025. REUTERS/Christian Hartmann BRUSSELS - NATO leaders are expected to endorse a big new defence spending target at an alliance summit in The Hague on Wednesday, as demanded by U.S. President Donald Trump. Here are some key questions and answers about the new target. WHAT ARE NATO LEADERS EXPECTED TO APPROVE? They are expected to agree that NATO members should spend 5% of their economic output - or Gross Domestic Product (GDP) - on core defence and broader defence and security-related investments. That's a hefty increase on the current goal of 2%, which was approved at an alliance summit in Wales in 2014. But the new target will be measured differently. NATO members will be expected to spend 3.5% of their GDP on core defence such as troops and weapons – the items currently covered by the old 2% target. They will also be expected to spend a further 1.5% of GDP on broader defence and security-related investments – such as adapting roads, bridges and ports for use by military vehicles, and on cyber-security and protecting energy pipelines. HOW BIG A LEAP WILL THIS BE FOR NATO COUNTRIES? Very big for a lot of them. Twenty-two of NATO's 32 member countries spent 2% of GDP or more on defence last year. As a whole, alliance members spent 2.61% of NATO GDP on defence last year, according to a NATO estimate. But that number masks big differences in spending among members. Poland, for example, spent more than 4% of its GDP on defence, making it the biggest spender. At the other end of the spectrum, Spain spent less than 1.3%. WHEN ARE NATO COUNTRIES EXPECTED TO HIT THE TARGET? They will be expected to meet the target by 2035. The targets could also be adjusted when they are reviewed in 2029. HOW MUCH MORE CASH ARE WE ACTUALLY TALKING ABOUT? It's hard to say exactly how much extra cash NATO members would have to spend, not least because it will depend on the size of their economies for years to come. Also, NATO does not currently measure spending on the new broader category of defence and security-related investments – so there is no baseline measurement to go by. But NATO countries spent over $1.3 trillion on core defence in 2024, up from about a trillion a decade earlier in constant 2021 prices. If NATO states had all spent 3.5% of GDP on defence last year, that would have amounted to some $1.75 trillion. So, hitting the new targets could eventually mean spending hundreds of billions of dollars more per year, compared with current spending. WHY ARE NATO COUNTRIES INCREASING SPENDING NOW? Russia's continued war in Ukraine, concerns about a possible future threat from Russia, and U.S. pressure have led many European capitals to boost investment in defence and plan to increase it even further over the coming years. 'Russia could be ready to use military force against NATO within five years,' NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte said earlier this month. Europe is also preparing for the possibility that the U.S. under President Donald Trump will decide to withdraw some of its troops and capabilities from Europe. 'America can't be everywhere all the time, nor should we be,' U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said earlier this month. WHAT WILL THE NEW MONEY BE SPENT ON? NATO this month agreed on new capability targets for its members – the types of troops, military units, weapons and equipment that NATO says they should possess to defend themselves and the alliance. Those targets are classified but Rutte said after they were approved that the alliance needed to invest more in areas including "air defence, fighter jets, tanks, drones, personnel, logistics and so much more". IS EVERYONE ON BOARD? Not quite. Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez says his country can meet its military capability targets by spending just 2.1% of GDP. His government approved the draft summit statement with the new spending target but made clear it does not intend to spend that much. NATO officials say Sanchez does not have an opt-out - Spain's spending will be tracked and if it's not investing enough to meet the military targets, it will need to improve. Some countries that have signed up to the targets may also not meet them, diplomats and analysts expect. But publicly, they have insisted they are committed. WHERE WILL THE MONEY COME FROM? Every NATO country will decide on its own where to find the cash to invest more in defence and how to allocate it. The European Union has moved to try to make it easier for capitals to spend on defence. The EU is allowing members to raise defence spending by 1.5% of GDP each year for four years without any disciplinary steps that would normally kick in once a national deficit is above 3% of GDP. EU ministers last month also approved the creation of a 150-billion-euro arms fund using joint EU borrowing to give loans to European countries for joint defence projects. Some European countries are pushing for EU joint borrowing to fund grants – rather than loans – for defence spending. But they have met resistance from fiscally conservative countries including Germany and The Netherlands. HOW DOES THE NATO TARGET COMPARE TO OTHER COUNTRIES' DEFENCE SPENDING? NATO allies dedicate a much smaller share of their economic output to defence than Russia but, taken together, they spend significantly more cash than Moscow. Russia's military spending rose by 38% in 2024, reaching an estimated $149 billion and 7.1% of GDP, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. China, the world's second-largest military spender, dedicated an estimated 1.7% of GDP to military expenditure last year, according to SIPRI. HOW DOES DEFENCE SPENDING COMPARE TO GOVERNMENT SPENDING IN OTHER AREAS? In NATO countries, defence tends to make up a small portion of national budgets. Military spending accounted for 3.2% of government spending in Italy, 3.6% in France and 8.5% in Poland in 2023, according to SIPRI data. In Russia that year, military expenditure made up nearly 19% of government spending. REUTERS Join ST's Telegram channel and get the latest breaking news delivered to you.
Straits Times
an hour ago
- Straits Times
Russia's spy agency says Serbia sold ammunition to Ukraine via Bulgaria, Czech Republic
BELGRADE - Russia accused Serbia on Monday of selling artillery ammunition to Ukraine through intermediaries in Eastern Europe, making the second such allegation in a month against its traditional Balkan ally. In a statement posted on its website, the Russian foreign intelligence agency, the SVR, said two Serbian companies sold rockets for multiple rocket launchers and mortar shells, or components for them, through two firms in the Czech Republic and Bulgaria. Both Bulgaria and the Czech Republic belong to NATO and the European Union, and supply weapons and ammunition to Ukraine. "The manufacturers in Serbia are well aware of the real consumers of their products and ... that their rockets and shells will kill Russian soldiers and residents of Russian settlements," the SVR said. There was no immediate comment from Serbian officials. But populist President Aleksandar Vucic, speaking before the SVR statement was published, said following a meeting with top army generals in Belgrade on Monday that the country had halted all arms sales. "We have halted literally everything, and we are now sending (ammunition) to our own army," Vucic told reporters. Serbia maintains a balancing act between its historical ties with Russia and the West. Belgrade has condemned the Russian invasion of Ukraine, but has so far refused to join Western sanctions against Moscow. Serbia also recognizes Ukraine's territorial integrity, including territories held by Russia. Serbia wants to join the EU, but Russia remains its biggest gas supplier, and the country's sole oil refinery is majority-owned by Gazprom and Gazprom Neft. In May, Vucic said Belgrade and Moscow will investigate how Serbia-made ammunition reached Ukraine, after SVR made similar accusations which soured relations between the two countries. Speaking in Moscow on Monday, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov, said he expects Belgrade will "take measures" to rein in such arms sales. "The topic certainly requires special attention, given the sensitivity of this issue for us and for Serbia," Peskov told Russia's Life TV. REUTERS Join ST's Telegram channel and get the latest breaking news delivered to you.
Straits Times
2 hours ago
- Straits Times
Rutte aims to steer NATO summit around Trump turbulence
THE HAGUE - Dutch politician Mark Rutte, appointed to navigate NATO's tricky relationship with Donald Trump, looks set to nail his first summit as secretary general after securing a draft agreement on boosting European defense spending as the U.S. president wants. Rutte has a name for negotiating political and financial minefields, and seemed unfazed last Friday when Spain at the last minute appeared to call into question its commitment to the spending goal of 5% of GDP that members are expected to accept in The Hague. But even as tension over military budgets eased, new uncertainties arose as the U.S. bombing of Iranian nuclear sites loomed over Rutte's carefully stage-managed summit plans. The 58-year-old is not only a tireless communicator and an analytical problem solver but also a prodigious builder of friendships, said Ron Fresen, who covered his record 13 years as Dutch prime minister for the public broadcaster NOS. If the potentially awkward summit in Rutte's hometown of The Hague is a success, "it will largely be down to his political dexterity", said Fresen, author of the book "The Rutte Mystery". Rutte announced his interest in the top NATO job in a local Den Haag FM radio interview with Fresen in 2023. "He later told me he had made a mistake and hadn't intended to announce his candidacy," Fresen said, "to which I replied: 'You don't make mistakes like that'." RUTTE'S COALITION-BUILDING SKILLS BROUGHT TO NATO Rutte's first months at NATO have mostly been spent dealing with Trump rather than external adversaries, to the frustration of some members, said Sten Rynning, director of the Danish Institute of Advanced Study and author of "NATO: From Cold War to Ukraine, A History of the World's Most Powerful Alliance". The challenges have included Trump's threat to take Greenland from NATO ally Denmark, his suggestion that Canada become a U.S. state, his reduction in support for Ukraine and his scolding of its president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, in the Oval Office. Rutte has orchestrated the summit schedule to avoid further friction between Trump and European leaders over how to deal with Russia over its full-scale invasion of Ukraine since 2022. "Most, let's say all, allies - except the United States - see Russia as a real threat and the driver of NATO defence. But not Trump. He sees it as an opportunity, and that gap has grown tremendously wide," Rynning said. Instead of dealing with Russia, China and Iran, he said the summit had been set up to be a success "in the sense that they can announce that the alliance is united, that it is in agreement on defence spending". Rutte is close to Zelenskiy and has unreservedly supported Ukraine. But he is walking a tightrope when it comes to NATO's role. Zelenskiy was not invited to the main event, avoiding a possible run-in with Trump, but only to a pre-summit dinner. Yet disagreement over Russia, set aside for now, could ultimately become Rutte's greatest challenge, Rynning added. For Rutte "this is not the time to cause it to fragment the alliance", he said, but in the long term "it is going to be his leadership challenge". RIDING BICYCLE TO WORK AS PRIME MINISTER For now, Rutte has merely sought to reassure Trump that Europe is ready to take on more responsibility for its own defence. "This summit is about the Euro-Atlantic area, making sure that we can defend ourselves against the Russians -- the really fast-reconstituting Russians," he told reporters on Monday. "That we are able to defend ourselves against China, which is also rapidly building up its capabilities, including 1,000 nuclear warheads by 2030. So we really need to spend more, produce more, keep Ukraine strong." During four terms as prime minister, Rutte steered the Netherlands through the pandemic, forged coalition governments that bridged differences over asylum policy, mediated during the European debt crisis and took a tough stance against Putin after Russian-backed separatists killed nearly 200 Dutch nationals by shooting down an airliner over eastern Ukraine. The former Unilever manager often arrived at government offices by bike, with an apple in hand, or in his unwashed Saab, living in a modest apartment in The Hague where he kept up weekly high school teaching while heading the cabinet. Unmarried and with no children, he keeps both his private life and his emotions out of the media spotlight. Generally well-humoured, he did once lose his cool with Fresen, who had sent a camera crew to cover a possible news event that turned out to be Rutte having a drink with friends. "He called me in a rage and told me that if the footage was aired, he'd never talk to me again," Fresen said. But a few minutes later, Rutte called back to apologise. REUTERS Join ST's Telegram channel and get the latest breaking news delivered to you.
