Likelihood of Finding Texas Flood Survivors Fades as Death Toll Passes 100

New York Times

07-07-2025

Rescuers and volunteers continued to hack through fallen trees and piles of debris in search of flood survivors on Monday. But the chances of finding anyone alive, four days after surging waters began tearing through Central Texas, grew increasingly remote.
Those who survive being swept away in a violent flood are typically found rapidly, even if it is miles from where they went into the water, said Chris Boyer, the executive director of the National Association for Search and Rescue. And they often have serious injuries.
'You've got to get to those folks quick,' Mr. Boyer said. But, he added, 'with floods, you don't typically find a lot of people alive.'
Even as they continued to project hope, officials in Texas on Monday began suggesting that their efforts were transitioning from rescuing the missing to recovering their bodies.
'This will be a rough week,' said Mayor Joe Herring Jr. of Kerrville, the seat of Kerr County, where at least 84 people died. 'We need your prayers.'
The death toll climbed on Monday across several counties of Hill Country, west of Austin, and reached at least 104 for the state. That number includes 27 campers and counselors at Camp Mystic, an all-girls Christian summer camp, from which 10 campers and a 19-year-old counselor remained missing.
The question of when to shift from rescue to recovery is always a difficult one, and there is no hard and fast rule for when to do so, according to Mr. Boyer, who was formerly in charge of a search-and-rescue team at the Contra Costa County Sheriff's Office, outside San Francisco.
'It's a very personal decision by that community and the community leaders about when to start discussing recovery,' Mr. Boyer said. 'You don't want to start using the word 'recovery' too soon. But you also don't want to give false hope.'
Given the magnitude of the flash flood, he added, it is increasingly unlikely that the missing will be found alive. Some of the bodies may not be recovered at all, or only after many months. 'The community has to work through that,' he said.