Ex-NATO commander sees 2 in 3 chance Trump strikes Iran
Former NATO Supreme Allied Commander James Stavridis on Thursday said he sees a two in three chance that President Trump strikes Iran.
'I think it's a close call for the president,' Stavridis told CNN's Pamela Brown on 'The Situation Room,' in an interview highlighted by Mediaite. 'At this point, Pamela, I would say there's a two in three chance he will go ahead and strike.'
'I think there's a one in three chance he'll give it a bit more time and see how diplomacy plays out. You can make a case on either side of that decision,' he added.
President Trump and his administration have mulled the possibility of stepping into the ongoing conflict between Iran and Israel, which kicked off a week ago. The president has hinted multiple times in the last week at possible U.S. participation.
The president is expected to come to a conclusion on whether to go ahead with direct action against Iran within two weeks, the president said Thursday in a message given by a spokesperson.
'Based on the fact that there's a substantial chance of negotiation that may or may not take place with Iran in the near future, I will make my decision whether or not to go in the next two weeks,' Trump said in a statement, which White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt read aloud.
Thursday polling from The Washington Post found that nearly half of Americans, 45 percent, said they would not back U.S. intervention in Iran.
The two Middle Eastern have traded tit-for-tar strikes for several days, which also prompted nuclear negotiations between the U.S. and Iran. to collapse.
The administration began talks with Iran in April, holding five rounds of negotiations throughout the spring.
This conflict also broke out amid already heightened tensions in the region over Israel's ongoing war in Gaza, which started in late 2023.
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The Hill
44 minutes ago
- The Hill
Trump pushes off decision on Iran action
The Big Story President Trump is expected to make a decision about whether to take direct action against Iran in the next two weeks. © Associated Press The message was delivered Thursday through White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt, who told reporters at a briefing that she had a message directly from Trump in response to speculation about whether he would get directly involved in the conflict between Iran and Israel. 'Based on the fact that there's a substantial chance of negotiation that may or may not take place with Iran in the near future, I will make my decision whether or not to go in the next two weeks,' Trump said in a statement read aloud by Leavitt. Leavitt said correspondence between the U.S. and Iran 'has continued' as the two sides engage in negotiations, though she would not provide specifics about whether they were direct or through intermediaries. Iran must agree to no enrichment of uranium, and Tehran must not be able to achieve a nuclear weapon as part of any diplomatic agreement, Leavitt said. Trump was noncommittal Wednesday morning about a potential strike against Iran's nuclear facilities: He dodged a question about whether he's moving closer to ordering a strike against Iranian nuclear facilities. 'I may do it, I may not do it. I mean, nobody knows what I'm going to do,' Trump told reporters. 'I can tell you this, that Iran's got a lot of trouble. And they want to negotiate. And I say, 'Why didn't you negotiate with me before all this death and destruction?'' The president has met each day since Tuesday with his national security team in the Situation Room. Trump has, throughout his political career, repeatedly fallen back on a two-week timeline to decide on policy decisions, including in recent weeks when he said he would know in roughly two weeks whether Russian President Vladimir Putin was interested in negotiating an end to the war in Ukraine. Asked if he would stick to his two-week timeline in the case of Iran, Leavitt did not directly answer but described the situation in the Middle East and the war in Ukraine as 'two very different, complicated global conflicts.' Read the full report at Welcome to The Hill's Defense & National Security newsletter, I'm Ellen Mitchell — your guide to the latest developments at the Pentagon, on Capitol Hill and beyond. Did someone forward you this newsletter? Subscribe here. Essential Reads How policy will affect defense and national security now and inthe future: Live updates: White House leaves room for more Iran talks; US airlines scale back Mideast flights President Trump will make a decision on getting directly involved in Iran within two weeks, leaving the door open for negotiations press secretary Karoline Leavitt said Thursday at a briefing. Earlier in the day, Trump pushed back on reports he had given a green light to an Iran attack plan. 'The Wall Street Journal has No Idea what my thoughts are concerning Iran!' Trump posted on Truth Social, referencing a late Wednesday … Ex-NATO commander sees 2 in 3 chance Trump strikes Iran Former NATO Supreme Allied Commander James Stavridis said Thursday he sees a 2 in 3 chance President Trump strikes Iran. 'I think it's a close call for the president,' Stavridis told CNN's Pamela Brown on 'The Situation Room,' in an interview highlighted by Mediaite. 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Wall Street Journal
an hour ago
- Wall Street Journal
Oil Prices Mixed Amid Middle East Escalation Worries
0019 GMT — Oil prices are mixed in early Asian trade. Energy markets remain on edge amid the likelihood of U.S. joining the Israel-Iran conflict, ANZ Research analysts write in a note. White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt read a statement from Trump, saying he would make a decision on potential strikes on Iran within two weeks. Front-month WTI crude oil futures are 1.1% higher at $76.00/bbl; front-month Brent crude oil futures are 2.1% lower at $77.22/bbl.(
Boston Globe
an hour ago
- Boston Globe
In crisis with Iran, US military officials focus on Strait of Hormuz
In several days of attacks, Israel has targeted Iranian military sites and state-sponsored entities, as well as high-ranking generals. It has taken out many of Iran's ballistic missiles, though Iran still has hundreds of them, US defense officials said. Advertisement But Israel has steered clear of Iranian naval assets. So while Iran's ability to respond has been severely damaged, it has a robust navy and maintains operatives across the region, where the United States has more than 40,000 troops. Iran also has an array of mines that its navy could lay in the Strait of Hormuz. The narrow 90-mile waterway connecting the Persian Gulf to the open ocean is a key shipping route. A quarter of the world's oil and 20 percent of the world's liquefied natural gas passes through it, so mining the choke point would cause gas prices to soar. It could also isolate US minesweepers in the Persian Gulf on one side of the strait. Two defense officials indicated that the Navy was looking to disperse its ships in the gulf so that they would be less vulnerable. A Navy official declined to comment, citing operational security. The officials spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak publicly. Advertisement Iran has vowed that if attacked by US forces, it would respond forcefully, potentially setting off a cycle of escalation. 'Think about what happened in January 2020 after Trump killed Soleimani and times that by 100,' said Brian Katulis, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute. Qassem Soleimani, a powerful Iranian general, was killed in a US drone strike in Baghdad during Trump's first administration. Iran then launched the largest-ever ballistic missile barrage at US bases in Iraq, leaving some 110 troops with traumatic brain injuries and unintentionally hitting a Ukrainian passenger jet, killing all 176 people aboard. 'Iran is strategically weaker but operationally still lethal across the region,' Katulis said, 'and Americans still have troops across that part of the world.' Iran has mined the Strait of Hormuz before, including in 1988 during its war with Iraq, when Iran planted 150 mines in the strait. One of the mines struck a US guided missile frigate, the USS Samuel B. Roberts, nearly sinking it. General Joseph Votel, a former leader of US Central Command, and Vice Admiral Kevin M. Donegan, a former commander of US naval forces in the Middle East, each said Wednesday that Iran was capable of mining the strait, which they said could bring international pressure on Israel to end its bombing campaign. But such an action would probably invite a massive US military response and further damage Iran's already crippled economy, Donegan added. Advertisement 'Mining also hurts Iran; they would lose income from oil they sell to China,' he said. 'Now, though, Iranian leadership is much more concerned with regime survival, which will drive their decisions.' Military officials and analysts said missile and drone attacks remained the biggest retaliatory threat to US bases and facilities in the region. 'These would be shorter-range variants, not what they were launching against Israel,' Donegan said. 'That Iranian capability remains intact.' Donegan also expressed concerns about the possibility that the Quds Force, a shadowy arm of Iran's military, could attack US troops. 'Our Arab partners have done well over the years to root most of that out of their countries; however, that Quds Force and militia threat still remains in Iraq and to some extent in Syria and Jordan,' he said. Iranian officials are seeking to remind Trump that, weakened or not, they still can find ways to hurt US troops and interests in the region, said Vali Nasr, an Iran expert and a professor at Johns Hopkins University. Striking Iran, he said, 'gets into such big unknowns.' He added, 'There are a lot of things that could go wrong.' Much is at stake for Iran if it decides to retaliate. 'Many of Iran's options are the strategic equivalent of a suicide bombing,' said Karim Sadjadpour, an Iran policy expert at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. 'They can do enormous damage to others if they mine the Strait of Hormuz, destroy regional oil facilities, and rain a missile barrage against Israel, but they may not survive the blowback.' But Iran can make it hugely expensive and dangerous for the US Navy to have to conduct what would most likely be a weekslong mine-clearing operation in the Strait of Hormuz, according to one former naval officer who was stationed on a minesweeper in the Persian Gulf. He and other Navy officers said that clearing the strait could also put American sailors directly in harm's way. Advertisement Iran is believed to maintain a variety of naval mines. They include small limpet mines containing just a few pounds of explosives that swimmers place directly on a ship's hull and typically detonate after a set amount of time. Iran also has larger moored mines that float just under the water's surface, releasing 100 pounds of explosive force or more when they come in contact with an unsuspecting ship. This article originally appeared in
