How Trump's Crackdown on International Students Could Escalate Trade Tensions With China

Time​ Magazine

30-05-2025

'Economists don't like tariffs not only because of the tariff itself but because of the uncertainty it creates,' Fangzhou Jiang, a Chinese student at Harvard Kennedy School and co-founder of higher education consulting firm Crimson Education, tells TIME. 'It's the same situation.'
The uncertainty Jiang is dealing with is his education: while his student visa has so far not been affected, the changing situation around Harvard's enrollment authorization and now new restrictions on Chinese students have made it difficult to navigate decisions around things like housing for the next academic year.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Wednesday the U.S. would start 'aggressively' revoking Chinese student visas and 'enhance scrutiny' of applications from mainland China and Hong Kong. Rubio gave sparse details on what exactly the criteria would be but said it would include 'those with connections to the Chinese Communist Party or studying in critical fields.'
China on Thursday condemned the decision, calling it 'discriminatory.'
'The U.S. decision … seriously hurts the lawful rights and interests of international students from China, and disrupts people-to-people exchanges between the two countries. China firmly opposes it and has protested to the U.S. over the decision,' said Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson Mao Ning. 'This politically motivated and discriminatory move exposes the U.S. hypocrisy over freedom and openness. It will further damage the image and reputation of the U.S. itself.'
The U.S. move comes at a time when the Trump Administration has imposed restrictions on the sales of chip design software and some jet engine parts to China, and soon after it warned that the sale of Huawei semiconductors 'anywhere in the world' would violate U.S. export controls—prompting China to threaten legal action. It's also come amid the Administration's war on U.S. colleges, which has included slashing federal funding for a number of universities and an attempt to bar Harvard University from enrolling international students over the school's alleged noncompliance with a list of demands.
The decision was celebrated by some. Ashley Moody, a Republican Senator from Florida, posted on X, 'the U.S. is no longer in the business of importing espionage.' Moody introduced a bill in March to ban all Chinese students from the U.S.
Others, however, condemned the move. 'The wholesale revocation of student visas based on national origin—and without an investigation—is xenophobic and wrong,' the Democratic-led Congressional Asian Pacific American Caucus posted on X. 'Turning these students away—many of whom simply wish to learn in a free and democratic society—is not just shortsighted but a betrayal of our values.'
Trump has restricted Chinese students before
This policy 'doesn't come from nowhere,' says David Weeks, co-founder and chief operating officer of Sunrise International, a consulting firm that advises overseas universities on recruiting Chinese students. 'You have adverse policies tracing back all the way to' President Donald Trump's first term, Weeks says.
In 2020, Trump's first-term Administration implemented Proclamation 10043, a restrictive visa policy on Chinese graduate students and researchers with ties to China's 'military-civil' universities. Around 1,000 Chinese scholars had their visas revoked under the policy, which persisted under the Biden Administration.
The new restrictions may appear more expansive, but it's 'a lot of chest thumping,' Weeks says, adding that without further details, it doesn't appear to be substantively different from what's been in place for the last five years. 'It's almost domestic political posturing. There's folks in the State Department that may want to seem tough on China, but this idea of limiting visas for students pursuing critical fields is nothing new.'
The ambiguity around the new policy and other recent decisions has thrown some Chinese students into a precarious position.
The main change is that the criteria has been expanded from alleged military ties to ties to the CCP—but in effect, Weeks says, this will be logistically difficult to implement. A huge number of Chinese citizens have ties to the CCP: the party boasts a membership of around 100 million members, and even if someone isn't a member, it's likely they can be linked through someone they know who is. But people join for reasons beyond direct political involvement. 'To be a civil servant or work in a state enterprise, it's almost obligatory to be in the party,' one member told AFP. 'It's like a diploma. It opens doors.'
On top of that, 'essentially every department of every Chinese university has a dual system of governance, where you've got the dean and you have the Communist Party Secretary,' Weeks says. Students may have also joined the Communist Youth League at some point, but it's almost akin to joining the Boy Scouts, he adds.
'The party is omnipresent in many Chinese universities,' Weeks says, but that doesn't mean that students are actively politically involved. 'The effort to try to disentangle and identify who has a party affiliation is practically extremely difficult.'
If it's about national security, Jiang says, then it 'might not be the most effective move' to go after anyone with apparent affiliations with the CCP because 'you would have targeted a whole bunch of people that have nothing to do with politics or with national security matters.'
'There's a possibility that students could be vindictively targeted, especially if they're at a university like Harvard that's picked a fight with the Administration,' Weeks says. 'There's certainly a risk that we could have a McCarthyist sort of sweep.'
American higher education risks losing critical international student base
Chinese students account for nearly a quarter—or more than 277,000—of all international students in the U.S., the second highest nationality behind Indian students, according to a 2024 Open Doors report. Many of these students are 'financially pretty self-sustaining,' Weeks says, which can be a significant contribution to university revenue. Chinese students also tend to have strong backgrounds in STEM and are typically highly academically motivated, he adds. They can be 'a critical lifeline for some programs.'
'There's just no market that is as big and as wealthy and as academically prepared as China,' Weeks says.
Right now, among Chinese students and their families, there's concern, Weeks says, but not yet panic.
U.S. universities have long held a 'tremendous amount of soft power,' he adds. 'In China, there's still a perception that certain other countries are easy, because they don't have as selective of admissions processes as the U.S. does, the degrees are shorter and thus less rigorous.' Many U.S. universities, even non-elite ones, have a kind of brand recognition among Chinese employers, while job opportunities in large American cities are 'unparalleled.'
Chinese families have also watched Trump's other policies go on rollercoasters, including imposing heavy tariffs on China and the rest of the world before backing out. 'I think Chinese families are seeing that there's sometimes a lot of noise and bluster, then the final outcome is not ideal,' says Weeks, 'but it's certainly not apocalyptic either.'
Still, if punitive policies towards Chinese international students persist, students may turn to alternative destinations, experts say.
'Chinese parents view this environment as one of toxic uncertainty,' Weeks says. 'Chinese parents really gravitate towards the rule of law in a lot of these anglophone countries, so when they see that the rule of law in some places is under threat, that's deeply concerning to them.'
Move could erode trust between U.S. and China
The Trump Administration's attitude towards Chinese students is a far cry from the counterpart view of Chinese President Xi Jinping, who has for years advocated for more American students to come to China. Xi in 2023 launched an initiative to bring in 50,000 Americans for exchanges and studies over five years. Last year, 16,000 Americans participated.
'There's recognition that when you don't have people-to-people exchanges, you lose an important bulwark against populist rhetoric on both sides,' Weeks says. 'China thinks that we need more, not less, exchange if we have disagreements.'
On Wednesday evening, the same day that Rubio announced the decision, Chinese Ambassador Xie Feng touted people-to-people exchanges as foundational to U.S.-China relations.
'It is people-to-people ties that invigorate China-U.S. relations,' he said at his embassy. 'We warmly welcome all American friends to travel in China, shop in China, succeed in China and take part in Chinese modernisation. Come and see the country with your own eyes.'
Jiang says when he thinks of his peers, friends, and faculty members, he feels very welcome in the U.S. But these moves by the Administration have spotlighted rhetoric that makes him feel less accepted.
Some experts say the Administration's decision will lead to an erosion of trust between the two countries, which could ultimately impact trade negotiations—a key priority for the Trump Administration.
'This policy is an unfair treatment of Chinese citizens, which will intensify diplomatic tensions between China and the United States, undermining the easing atmosphere that had emerged following the Geneva talks,' Sun Chenghao, a fellow at Tsinghua University's Centre for International Security and Strategy, told the South China Morning Post, referencing the agreement between the U.S. and China to temporarily lower tariffs.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said in a Thursday Fox News interview that trade talks with China are 'a bit stalled' and pushed for a call between Trump and Xi—who last spoke in January ahead of Trump's inauguration.
'I think China has made it clear that it would like to disentangle security disagreements and trade … from people-to-people exchanges,' Weeks says. Though he doesn't think the Trump Administration's education policies will ultimately undermine trade negotiations, he adds: 'I don't know if Trump or Rubio actually care that much about which student from what province is studying at what U.S. university, but I do think that they see international students unfortunately not as humans, but as bargaining chips.'