Putin is betting he can make Trump so mad he gives up on peace and Ukraine, expert says
It's the Russian gambit.
Russian President Vladimir Putin is hoping that his increased attacks on Ukraine and repeated dismissal of cease-fire deals will make President Trump so angry and frustrated with the peace process that America will give up on Ukraine altogether, one longtime Russia watcher says.
Tensions have reached a boiling point between the world leaders after Trump slammed Putin as 'crazy' and warned him that he was 'playing with fire' after record drone and missile attacks on Ukraine this week, with the Kremlin mocking him as overly emotional.
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The constant antagonization, however, is likely all part of Putin's gamble to strip Ukraine of its biggest ally. And Trump's frustration spilling over to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky shows it could be working, George Barros, of the Institute for the Study of War think tank, told The Post.
5 Russian President Vladimir Putin is allegedly trying to frustrate President Trump to the point where he abandons cease-fire efforts in Ukraine.
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5 A civilian stands near the ruins of a residential building that was destroyed by the Kremlin's widespread bombings.
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Barros, who leads the ISW's Russia and geospatial intelligence teams, said Putin's main goal is to destroy the coalition of international support for Ukraine, which has kept Kyiv in the fight with a constant flow of money and high-tech western weapons.
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The Kremlin's greatest prize is ending US support.
'Putin is trying to shape Trump's path forward… and what he wants is for Trump to get exasperated, for the president to say, 'My time is too valuable to be wasted on this,'' Barros said.
Putin got a taste of that over the weekend when, along with criticizing Russia, Trump slammed Ukraine and the Biden administration for failing to reach a cease-fire and suggesting the US may abandon its role in mediating a cease-fire.
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'This is Zelensky's, Putin's, and Biden's War, not 'Trump's,' I am only helping to put out the big and ugly fires, that have been started through Gross Incompetence and Hatred,' Trump blasted on Truth Social Sunday.
5 Trump has warned Putin that he's 'playing with fire,' following Moscow's latest mass bombings and rebuke of cease-fire efforts.
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John Herbst, a former US ambassador to Ukraine and senior director of the Atlantic Council think tank's Eurasia Center, said Trump's recent comments have solidified Putin's belief that the US is all bark and no bite.
'Putin no doubt takes solace that in the Truth Social post that labeled him 'CRAZY,' because Trump also slammed Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy for 'talking the way he does,'' Herbst wrote.
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'At this point, Putin reads Trump, like other Western leaders since Russia's 2008 war in Georgia, as unwilling to take strong action against aggression,' he added.
5 Russia has continued to fire larger and larger aerial strikes over the border in recent weeks.
ZAPORIZHZHIA REGIONAL MILITARY ADMINISTRATION HANDOUT/EPA-EFE/Shutterstock
Herbst noted that despite previous criticisms against Russia, Trump has yet to follow through on any of his threats, including joining European leaders in sanctioning Moscow last week.
State-controlled news outlets have also had a field day with Trump's rebuke, with propaganda outlet Russia Today opening mocking the president's latest comments on X.
'President Trump warns Moscow, claiming Russia avoided 'REALLY BAD' consequences only thanks to him 'Putin doesn't realize… he's playing with fire!' — Trump's message leaves little room for misinterpretation. Until he posts the opposite tomorrow morning,' the outlet wrote.
5 Trump had threatened to sanction Russia if it did not agree to a cease-fire deal to end the deadly war last week, but no sanctions have been placed so far.
SERGEY DOLZHENKO/EPA-EFE/Shutterstock
Barros, however, said Putin's actions were still a gamble, as his provocations could ultimately lead to Trump doubling down on supporting Kyiv and punishing the personal attacks with harsh sanctions.
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'Putin may find that he doesn't understand Trump the way he thinks he does, so this strategy can certainly backfire,' Barros said.
'We're reaching a watershed moment on how the US will participate in this conflict,' he added.
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