Latest news with #InstitutefortheStudyofWar
Business Insider
4 hours ago
- Business
- Business Insider
Russia's high military recruitment bonuses are straining its economy
Russia's high recruitment bonuses to sustain its war effort in Ukraine are straining the country's economy, according to a recent report from the Institute for the Study of War. Costs have ballooned for the bonuses and the labor expansion in the defense industry, Last July, Putin signed a decree more than doubling the standard enlistment bonus from 195,000 rubles to 400,000 rubles — nearly five times the country's average monthly wage. The head count drive has placed the military in direct competition with civilian industries for labor, driving up wages and prices, particularly in services, while Russia continues to pour funds into its war effort. "Russia cannot indefinitely replace its forces at the current casualty rate without an involuntary reserve mobilization, which Russian President Vladimir Putin has shown great reluctance to order, nor can it sustain increasingly high payments to recruits, which the Russian economy cannot afford," wrote the ISW analysts. Russia has suffered over 950,000 injuries and deaths in the war, according to the Center for Strategic and International Studies in June. The ISW analysts warned that Moscow is "burning the candle at both ends" by loosening monetary policy to prop up growth and expanding wartime spending. The combination, they said, risks further destabilizing the economy. Russia's "unsustainably high" payments to soldiers are likely to erode consumer purchasing power, weaken the ruble over time, and deepen macroeconomic instability, the ISW analysts wrote. The cost of Russia's war-driven economic boom Putin's administration beat its recruitment goals last year, largely by offering lucrative bonuses. Some regional governments even offered bonuses on par with the US military's sign-on payments. That approach helped fuel short-term growth. Economists at Bruegel, a Brussels-based think tank, wrotethat military spending and bonus-driven consumption were key drivers of Russia's GDP growth in 2023 and 2024. As the economy shifted toward war, the defense sector and wartime consumption benefited most. But by mid-2023, the economy began overheating, prompting the central bank to raise interest rates repeatedly. "Still, with much lending occurring at subsidised rates and the military-industrial complex shielded by public procurement, the rate hikes primarily impacted non-war-related sectors," the Bruegel economists added. Even the military-industrial sector showed signs of stagnation by late 2024. "The economy had butted up against its supply-side constraints," they wrote. With the Bank of Russia directing credit to military-linked sectors, other parts of the economy are increasingly being squeezed. Meanwhile, structural weaknesses in Russia's war economy persist even if it has appeared to be resilient so far, thanks to the influx of war-related spending. "Russia has lost major export markets for its defence products, faces rising costs from sanctions evasion and suffers from weak labour and migration policies — all of which compound its structural challenges," the Bruegel economists wrote.
Business Insider
4 hours ago
- Politics
- Business Insider
Russia is making so many Iranian Shahed drones that it could soon launch 2,000 of them in a single night
The Kremlin is building its way toward a reality where it can soon launch 2,000 Shahed one-way attack drones in one night, according to two recent Western assessments. Maj. Gen. Christian Freuding, the German defense ministry's commander of planning and command staff, said in a Bundeswehr interview aired on Saturday that Russia was "striving to further increase production capacity" of its Shaheds. "They want to expand the drone attacks we just talked about," Freuding said. "The ambition is to be able to deploy 2,000 drones simultaneously." "We need to consider intelligent countermeasures," he added. In a separate assessment on Sunday, the Institute for the Study of War, a Washington-based think tank, wrote that Russia's per-night use of Shahed drones increased by 31% each month in June and July. "ISW assesses that Russia may be able to launch up to 2,000 drones in one night by November 2025, should this current growth trend in drone usage continue," its analysts wrote. However, they added that Russia likely wouldn't be able to consistently sustain 2,000 drone launches per day. Still, such capacity would be a stark jump from the fall of 2024, when Russia was launching roughly 2,000 drones a month at Ukraine. Shaheds are long-range Iranian exploding drones with estimated ranges of 600 to 1,200 miles, depending on the design. This year, Russia has continually increased the number of Shaheds and decoy drones it launches a night at Ukraine, recently peaking at 728 uncrewed aerial vehicles in one salvo earlier this month. Russia's Shahed production on the rise As these numbers surge, Ukraine and its allies fear that Russia's nightly attacks will overwhelm Kyiv's air defenses. "There will be 1,000 units per day and more. I'm not trying to scare anyone," wrote Robert "Madyar" Brovdi, commander of Ukraine's Unmanned Systems Forces, wrote on July 4 about Russia's Shahed capacity. The Shahed is of Iranian design, but Russia has also been manufacturing its own versions of the drone locally in the Yelabuga Special Economic Zone since early 2023. Western governments and analysts say some vital parts for production come from China. In April, analysts from the International Institute for Strategic Studies wrote that satellite imagery showed that the area of Shahed-producing facilities has doubled since 2023. "Despite a steady flow of Shahed-136s from Iran, Moscow is heavily investing in its own production facilities," the IISS analysts wrote. Ukraine has periodically tried to strike Yelabuga with its own long-range fixed-wing drones, but it's unclear if the factories have sustained any significant damage. Kyiv's military intelligence also said in February that it had found production markings on some attack drones that mention the city of Izhevsk, possibly pointing to another production line there. NATO and Ukraine need cheaper defenses Freuding, the German general, said that against such quantity, it would be nonsensical to rely on expensive Western interceptors such as the Patriot system to destroy Shaheds. "We essentially need countermeasures that cost two, three, four thousand euros," he said. By comparison, a single Patriot system costs the US government $1.1 billion, and one of its missiles can cost about $4 million. Ukraine now uses a multilayered air defense network against Shahed waves, including surface-to-air missiles, air-launched missiles, and mobile fire groups that try to shoot down the Iranian drones with machine guns. A locally made interceptor drone, the Sting, is becoming popular, too. But Russia also fires ballistic missiles in tandem with the Shahed drones, and these require more advanced, long-range air defenses such as the Patriot to intercept. Kyiv is trying to persuade the US and its allies to provide it with more Patriot systems.
Yahoo
3 days ago
- Politics
- Yahoo
Opinion - Vladimir Putin's growing ‘red tide' in eastern Ukraine
Russian ground advances across eastern Ukraine appear to be small at first glance — only 1.2 square kilometers on an average per day near the city of Kupiansk. Or, as the Institute for the Study of War notes, they have gained a grand total of 454 square kilometers since January 2024 when Moscow first attempted to envelop the strategic city near the Russia border. Meanwhile, to the south, Russian President Vladimir Putin's invasion has only managed to advance 17 kilometers toward Lyman since January 2025. But the devil is in the details. Like the salients aimed at menacing Kupiansk and Lyman, six other Russian salients are slowly coming together as mutually supporting operations expanding from the Donbas in Russian-occupied eastern Ukraine. The pace remains slow — Putin's daily gains are traversed with boots, not tires. Yet now there is a new purpose behind them. If you zoom out and view each of these salients along a north-south axis across eastern Ukraine, you can see how they are increasingly mutually supporting one another. They are also reflective of a change in Russian strategy. Moscow is avoiding a direct attack on what has become known as the 'fortress belt' of the Donetsk Oblast. He is instead committed to what the institute deems a 'multi-year operation to envelop the southern half of the fortress belt.' In non-military terms, Putin's battlefield doctrine is crystal clear. Putin is unwilling to enter into a ceasefire because he is still convinced he can outlast Washington and Brussels and conquer all of Ukraine. In Russian warfare, the 1,034,460 casualties are just the cost of doing business. The spotlight is trained on Russian ballistic missile and drone strikes on Ukrainian cities, but the ground war — the close fight — continues with little exposure from the mainstream media. 'Flying under the radar' is the appropriate military term — and the bad result is what we common describe as 'boiling the frog.' If Putin's red tide is left unchecked, over time these marginal Russian territorial advances risk gaining exponential momentum. If viewed through this narrow prism, they are very much akin to a land-version of a red tide that is slowly spreading and bringing total death and destruction to all of eastern Ukraine. As it is, Ukraine — especially eastern Ukraine — is already the most mined country in the world and has been since 2023. Now, out of necessity, Kyiv alongside Finland, Poland and the Baltic states, has withdrawn from the Ottawa Convention, the landmark 1997 agreement banning the use of anti-personnel mines. Beyond just Ukraine, Putin's red tide is threatening to spread throughout Europe – and arguably, it already has spread globally via Putin's widespread use of paramilitary forces across the Sahel in Sub-Saharan Africa. The results are always the same: toppled democracies, the plundering of Ukraine's and other countries' national resources (especially their rare earth mineral reserves), widespread destruction and leveled cities — including Bakhmut and Avdiivka early in the war and now Pokrovsk and countless other small Ukrainian cities and settlements as well. Team Trump's decision to resume defensive arm sales to Ukraine comes at a critical time. Yes, for now, much of the media's attention has understandably been focused on both Russian and Ukrainian aerial attacks. Yet, while Ukraine's deep fight has been against legitimate military targets including June's Operation Spiderweb – smuggled Ukrainian drones spectacularly attacked and destroyed dozens of Russian bombers across Russia – Putin has intentionally targeted Ukrainian civilians. Even First Lady Melania Trump has taken notice. As Trump admitted, his wife pointed out to him that every time the president has a 'perfect call' with Putin, the Russian dictator ends the call by bombing another Ukrainian city. Wars are won with boots on the ground — by occupying terrain. Aerial bombardments merely set the conditions for winning that fight. The war in Ukraine will be won or lost across the 600-mile frontline in eastern Ukraine. Defensive weapons can help, but they will not win the war. As we have warned, the fighting and bloodshed will not stop unless Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and his generals have more artillery rounds and ample offensive weapons to engage and interdict Russian forces before they can enter eastern Ukraine, as well as precision deep strike weapons to defeat the weapon systems killing Ukrainian citizens in their homes. Nor will it be enough to fend off the Russian advances that are slowly eating away at the value of Trump's much-vaunted rare earth minerals deal with Ukraine. It is estimated that 50 percent of Ukraine's $11.5 trillion of rare earth minerals are located in eastern Ukraine — and much of that is already occupied by Russia. Ukraine fully understands that its independent future depends upon aligning with Team Trump, and that its rare earth minerals deal must underpin that relationship now and after the war era. Zelensky's nomination of Yulia Svyrydenko as Ukraine's new prime minister is proof of that understanding. Svyrydenko was instrumental in finalizing the rare earth minerals deal that was signed by Trump and Zelensky. One of Svyrydenko's first acts will likely be to remind Team Trump that Putin in June seized a valuable lithium mine in Donetsk. It too was small — just 100 acres — but its lithium reserve is vast, and until June it was part of Trump's deal. Zelensky's recall of Oksana Markarova, Ukraine's ambassador to the U.S., is yet another step in the right direction. Markarova has long been criticized by Republicans on Capitol Hill after House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) accused her of supporting the candidacy of former Vice President Kamala Harris. For the moment, Putin is winning the race for the title of Don of the Donbas. To end the conflict, team Trump must turn back Putin's red tide in Ukraine. Mark Toth writes on national security and foreign policy. Col. (Ret.) Jonathan Sweet served 30 years as an Army intelligence officer. Copyright 2025 Nexstar Media, Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed. Solve the daily Crossword
The Hindu
4 days ago
- Politics
- The Hindu
Russia says captured villages in three separate areas of Ukraine front
Russia said Thursday (July 17, 2025) it had captured Ukrainian villages in three separate areas of the front line, expanding its summer offensive despite U.S. calls to end the fighting. Ukraine did not immediately comment on Moscow's claims. In a statement, the Russian Defence Ministry said its forces had 'liberated' the settlements of Popiv Yar in the eastern Donetsk region, Degtiarne in the northeast Kharkiv region and Kamianske in the southern Zaporizhzhia region. Kamianske, on the banks of the Dnipro river, was home to around 2,000 people before the conflict. Degtiarne is a tiny hamlet near the Russian border but lies in an area of the front line that Moscow's forces had not penetrated since the early months of its offensive. Popiv Yar is a small village south of the Ukrainian city of Kramatorsk. The Russian military accelerated its advances for a third consecutive month in June. Its territorial gains for that month were the biggest since November last year, according to an AFP analysis of data from the U.S.-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW). U.S. President Donald Trump has given Moscow '50 days' from Monday (July 14, 2025) to reach a peace deal or face bruising sanctions, but Ukraine says the Kremlin has no interest in ending the fighting and will press on regardless.
The Hill
4 days ago
- Politics
- The Hill
Vladimir Putin's growing ‘red tide' in eastern Ukraine
Russian ground advances across eastern Ukraine appear to be small at first glance — only 1.2 square kilometers on an average per day near the city of Kupiansk. Or, as the Institute for the Study of War notes, they have gained a grand total of 454 square kilometers since January 2024 when Moscow first attempted to envelop the strategic city near the Russia border. Meanwhile, to the south, Russian President Vladimir Putin's invasion has only managed to advance 17 kilometers toward Lyman since January 2025. But the devil is in the details. Like the salients aimed at menacing Kupiansk and Lyman, six other Russian salients are slowly coming together as mutually supporting operations expanding from the Donbas in Russian-occupied eastern Ukraine. The pace remains slow — Putin's daily gains are traversed with boots, not tires. Yet now there is a new purpose behind them. If you zoom out and view each of these salients along a north-south axis across eastern Ukraine, you can see how they are increasingly mutually supporting one another. They are also reflective of a change in Russian strategy. Moscow is avoiding a direct attack on what has become known as the 'fortress belt' of the Donetsk Oblast. He is instead committed to what the institute deems a 'multi-year operation to envelop the southern half of the fortress belt.' In non-military terms, Putin's battlefield doctrine is crystal clear. Putin is unwilling to enter into a ceasefire because he is still convinced he can outlast Washington and Brussels and conquer all of Ukraine. In Russian warfare, the 1,034,460 casualties are just the cost of doing business. The spotlight is trained on Russian ballistic missile and drone strikes on Ukrainian cities, but the ground war — the close fight — continues with little exposure from the mainstream media. 'Flying under the radar' is the appropriate military term — and the bad result is what we common describe as 'boiling the frog.' If Putin's red tide is left unchecked, over time these marginal Russian territorial advances risk gaining exponential momentum. If viewed through this narrow prism, they are very much akin to a land-version of a red tide that is slowly spreading and bringing total death and destruction to all of eastern Ukraine. As it is, Ukraine — especially eastern Ukraine — is already the most mined country in the world and has been since 2023. Now, out of necessity, Kyiv alongside Finland, Poland and the Baltic states, has withdrawn from the Ottawa Convention, the landmark 1997 agreement banning the use of anti-personnel mines. Beyond just Ukraine, Putin's red tide is threatening to spread throughout Europe – and arguably, it already has spread globally via Putin's widespread use of paramilitary forces across the Sahel in Sub-Saharan Africa. The results are always the same: toppled democracies, the plundering of Ukraine's and other countries' national resources (especially their rare earth mineral reserves), widespread destruction and leveled cities — including Bakhmut and Avdiivka early in the war and now Pokrovsk and countless other small Ukrainian cities and settlements as well. Team Trump's decision to resume defensive arm sales to Ukraine comes at a critical time. Yes, for now, much of the media's attention has understandably been focused on both Russian and Ukrainian aerial attacks. Yet, while Ukraine's deep fight has been against legitimate military targets including June's Operation Spiderweb – smuggled Ukrainian drones spectacularly attacked and destroyed dozens of Russian bombers across Russia – Putin has intentionally targeted Ukrainian civilians. Even First Lady Melania Trump has taken notice. As Trump admitted, his wife pointed out to him that every time the president has a 'perfect call' with Putin, the Russian dictator ends the call by bombing another Ukrainian city. Wars are won with boots on the ground — by occupying terrain. Aerial bombardments merely set the conditions for winning that fight. The war in Ukraine will be won or lost across the 600-mile frontline in eastern Ukraine. Defensive weapons can help, but they will not win the war. As we have warned, the fighting and bloodshed will not stop unless Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and his generals have more artillery rounds and ample offensive weapons to engage and interdict Russian forces before they can enter eastern Ukraine, as well as precision deep strike weapons to defeat the weapon systems killing Ukrainian citizens in their homes. Nor will it be enough to fend off the Russian advances that are slowly eating away at the value of Trump's much-vaunted rare earth minerals deal with Ukraine. It is estimated that 50 percent of Ukraine's $11.5 trillion of rare earth minerals are located in eastern Ukraine — and much of that is already occupied by Russia. Ukraine fully understands that its independent future depends upon aligning with Team Trump, and that its rare earth minerals deal must underpin that relationship now and after the war era. Zelensky's nomination of Yulia Svyrydenko as Ukraine's new prime minister is proof of that understanding. Svyrydenko was instrumental in finalizing the rare earth minerals deal that was signed by Trump and Zelensky. One of Svyrydenko's first acts will likely be to remind Team Trump that Putin in June seized a valuable lithium mine in Donetsk. It too was small — just 100 acres — but its lithium reserve is vast, and until June it was part of Trump's deal. Zelensky's recall of Oksana Markarova, Ukraine's ambassador to the U.S., is yet another step in the right direction. Markarova has long been criticized by Republicans on Capitol Hill after House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) accused her of supporting the candidacy of former Vice President Kamala Harris. For the moment, Putin is winning the race for the title of Don of the Donbas. To end the conflict, team Trump must turn back Putin's red tide in Ukraine.
