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Yahoo
3 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
How much does a Russian drone attack on Ukraine cost? The question is more complicated than it sounds
Beginning overnight on Saturday, May 24, Russia rained down nearly a thousand drones and missiles on villages and cities across Ukraine in three nights of large-scale aerial attacks, as civilians spent hours sheltering underground. Russia's bombardment killed more than a dozen people and injured dozens more, in one of the largest coordinated attacks since the start of the war. Such deadly storms of drones and missiles are not cheap to carry out, but the costs of these weapons are sensitive military information that Russia keeps classified. Experts and media outlets have estimated that attacks like the one this past weekend cost Russia hundreds of thousands of dollars in weaponry. The estimated figures vary significantly, however, and that's before adding in other costs beyond their price tag, like the price of a flight that launches a missile, or storage costs before weapons are used. "The cost of these large strikes is quite difficult to estimate in the open-source because Russia goes to great lengths to obfuscate the cost of the missiles and drones," said Angelica Evans, a Russia analyst with the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). "Particularly with the onset of western sanctions and Russia's many sanctions evasion schemes, it's difficult to know how much all of the various components in the projectiles really cost, let alone the cost of production itself." According to Ukraine's Air Force, the weekend attack used Shahed drones, decoy drones, three types of cruise missiles, and Iskander-M and KN-23 ballistic missiles. Most of the 995 weapons — 903 of them — were Shahed kamikaze drones or decoy drones meant to mimic the behavior of Shaheds and overwhelm air defense systems. Russia also launched 69 cruise missiles: 64 of the Kh-101 variety, 4 Kh-59/69 missiles, and one Kh-22 missile. The remaining 23 weapons were Iskander-M ballistic missiles or similar North Korean KN-23 ballistic missiles. Some experts have tried to come up with price tags for different weapons systems using open-source information, including examining the components of downed weaponry, comparing missiles to similar weapons in the West, and analyzing hacked procurement contract data. While these methods can give a better sense of how much Russia is paying to carry out its aerial attacks, they result in a range rather than a hard figure. Take the Shahed, for example. One commonly cited figure is $50,000 per Shahed drone produced in Russia. Others have said the scaling of production in the past year within Russia has lowered the cost, potentially as low as $20,000. Hacked documents between Russia and Iran, meanwhile, show that Russia negotiated prices for Iranian-made Shaheds earlier in the war in the range of $193,000 to $290,000 per unit, depending on the number ordered. To save money on drones, Russia is increasingly producing them at home. Satellite imagery has detected the expansion of the facilities where Shahed drones are manufactured in Russia. The cost of a Shahed used by Russia therefore heavily depends on when it was acquired and whether you're calculating its replacement cost or its original purchase or production price. Nor do these estimates account for modifications made to the drones by Russians in the field or at the unit level. Another consideration is whether to include the cost of paying the soldiers who deploy the weapon. "Recent reporting estimates Russia can produce roughly 100 Shaheds per day." The uncertainty is multiplied hundreds of times over for each drone in a major attack. But the use of decoy drones provides another complication in calculating the cost of the recent Russian attack: How many of the 903 drones were Shaheds, and how many were the much cheaper decoy drones? Ukraine's Defense Intelligence Service believes the most expensive part of the decoy drones is their engine, which can be bought online for around $350–$500. A complete decoy is likely to cost in the low thousands range. Yurii Ihnat, a Ukrainian Air Force spokesperson, has stated that almost half of the deployed drones may be decoys. And these are only considerations for pricing a drone. Missiles have a heftier price tag — from hundreds of thousands to millions of dollars per missile — and can also come with a wider price range. Most ballpark estimates would put a dollar price tag in the high six figures for the recent three-day aerial attack, but the usefulness of such a metric is limited by how much variability there is. A more helpful metric, said Evans of ISW, would be looking at how many weapons are being launched compared to how many weapons Russia can produce. Last month, Russian President Vladimir Putin pledged to continue scaling up production of weapons, and drones in particular, calling them a major factor in combat successes. "We have seen recent reporting that Russia has been increasing its ability to produce Shahed drones and decoy variants for many months, and recent reporting estimates Russia can produce roughly 100 Shaheds per day," Evans said. This suggests that the drones used in the past weekend's attack could be replenished in just over a week. "Russian missile production capabilities are much more limited, particularly of Iskander ballistic missiles, and the Russians may be trying to stockpile cruise missiles so they can conduct rarer but more intense strike series like we saw over the weekend," Evans added. Hi, this is Andrea. Thanks for reading my article. At the Kyiv Independent, we work hard to inform the world about what's happening in Ukraine. To fund our reporting, we rely on our community of over 19,000 members from around the world, most of whom give just $5 a month. We're aiming to reach 20,000 soon — join our community and help us reach this goal. Read also: How Russia's Shahed drones are getting more deadly — and what Ukraine is doing about it We've been working hard to bring you independent, locally-sourced news from Ukraine. Consider supporting the Kyiv Independent.
Yahoo
3 days ago
- Politics
- Yahoo
Ukraine scrambles to set up ‘drone wall' as it braces for Russian summer offensive
Russia dramatically intensified missile and drone attacks across Ukraine this month in an effort to sap Ukrainians' morale – but it is also stepping up ground attacks in many areas along the long frontline, according to Ukrainian officials and analysts. Some of those attacks have succeeded, with Ukrainian units in Donetsk and the north falling back from some positions, while some rural areas in the south have also been lost. But Ukraine's own enhanced use of drones, deployed in several layers on the battlefield, has helped Kyiv inflict heavy losses on the opposing forces with minimal casualties among its own troops. They may become even more critical in the months to come. The Ukrainians are trying to expand their own drone industry to create defensive corridors along key sections of the front line, often dubbed the 'drone wall.' Meanwhile, ignoring US President Donald Trump's efforts to secure a ceasefire, the Kremlin is pursuing a two-pronged strategy aimed at forcing Ukraine to admit defeat – destroying its cities from the sky and whittling away its defensive lines on the ground. Russia has sharply expanded its own drone and missile production in the past year, allowing for mass attacks using several hundred projectiles at once. The Russian strategy seeks to overwhelm Ukraine's air defenses with scores of low-cost drones so that simultaneous missile strikes can succeed. On the ground, Russian forces are probing Ukrainian defenses along many parts of the frontline simultaneously, from Zaporizhzhia in the south to Sumy in the north, advancing into abandoned villages and across open countryside in small numbers. The Russians are not rolling through Ukrainian defenses but gnawing away at them, using cars and motorbikes and scattered infantry platoons. Russian forces have advanced an average of roughly 14 square kilometers (5.4 square miles) per day so far this year, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) in Washington. This rate implies they'd need nearly four more years to complete the occupation of the four regions illegally annexed by Moscow: Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson. Those are the Kremlin's oft-stated goals, but it is also trying to instil a sense among Kyiv's allies of Russian superiority over Ukrainian forces. Much of the fighting is in Donetsk, with the Russians still determined to seize the entire region – unless it is handed over in peace negotiations, which is a non-starter for Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. The Russian Defense Ministry claimed Tuesday that a village south of the key town of Kostiantynivka had been taken. ISW assesses that Russian forces seized roughly 65 square kms of territory - but remain incapable of intensifying offensive operations in several different directions simultaneously. 'The main Russian effort into the summer will once again be against the key towns of Kostyantynivka and Pokrovsk' in Donetsk, according to Jack Watling, a senior research fellow at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) in London. Hundreds of miles to the north, Russian units have edged a few kilometers into the Sumy region. Zelensky told journalists Tuesday that the Russians are 'now amassing troops in the Sumy direction. More than 50,000. We understand that. But we are making progress there.' Zelensky said the Russians wanted 'to build this buffer zone, as they call it, 10 kilometers (6.2 miles) deep into Ukraine,' but lacked the capability. The Russians are supporting these operations with missile and air-launched guided-bomb attacks. The attacks into Sumy follow a Kremlin directive on May 21 that the military create buffer zones inside northern Ukraine – in Sumy and Kharkiv regions. That came when President Vladimir Putin visited Russia's Kursk region across the border, part of which had been seized by a Ukrainian incursion launched from Sumy last summer. Capturing Sumy's regional capital is probably beyond the Russians – the terrain is thickly forested. But through their attacks, the Russian military can prevent the Ukrainians from redeploying units to Donetsk. Further east there's also been an uptick in fighting around Vovchansk in Kharkiv region in recent days. Across the 1,000-kilometer (621-mile) frontline, according to analysts, the Ukrainian military has to decide which areas are under greatest threat, where to withdraw, how to redeploy – even as many brigades are seriously under-strength more than three years after the Russian invasion. The manpower balance is still very much in Russia's favor, despite its heavy losses. Putin recently claimed that 60,000 volunteers are being recruited every month. Observers believe this is likely exaggerated but signing-up bonuses that dwarf civilian wages in Russia make military service an attractive option. Ukraine's military chief, Oleksandr Syrskyi, said earlier this month that Kyiv faced 'a combined enemy grouping of up to 640,000 personnel,' higher than at the outset of the invasion. Zelensky said in January that Ukraine had 880,000 soldiers, 'but 880,000 are defending the entire territory. Russian forces are concentrated in certain directions.' Russian recruitment 'has exceeded Kremlin targets for every month of 2025,' according to the RUSI analyst Watling. 'Having shuffled commanders and built-up reserves of equipment, Russia is now set to increase the tempo and scale of attacks.' But for every square kilometer of Ukrainian land that Russia captures, Moscow is probably losing about 100 men, according to Western assessments. Above and behind the frontlines as well as in the air campaign being waged by Moscow, the development and deployment of drones will continue to be critical. The recent Russian advances in Donetsk, while incremental, were enabled by the tactic of isolating the battlefield – cutting Ukrainian units from supplies through drone strikes on supply vehicles up to 30 kilometers (18.6 miles) from the front lines. Ukrainian defenses are heavily reliant on layers of drones. The Ukrainians are developing a concept sometimes dubbed the 'drone wall,' designed to 'provide a continuous defensive corridor of drones along Ukraine's most vulnerable frontiers to inflict significant casualties on Russian forces,' according to Mick Ryan, author of the blog Futura Doctrina. Konrad Muzyka, a defense analyst at Rochan Consulting, says that 'Ukrainian forces are increasingly lethal with drone-artillery coordination. Russian assaults — motorcycle-based and armored — were defeated across several fronts with minimal Ukrainian losses' in April. But Ryan points out that an effective drone wall will require integration 'and probably AI-assisted decision-making and analysis,' as well as integration with electronic warfare. And it's a two-way street. Ukrainian drones are 'guided by small radar, and Russia is now systematically working to locate and target these radar stations,' Watling writes. Zelensky said Tuesday that Russia plans to ramp up production of Shahed attack drones to between 300 and 350 per day. Asked whether there may come a time when Russia fires 1,000 drones in one day, he replied: 'I cannot say that this will not happen.' Sending drones in their hundreds saturates air defenses, as they accumulate over a target area. Russia has also developed drones that can evade Ukrainian jamming and can fly higher and faster than earlier models. Ukrainian analyst Oleksandr Kovalenko said last week that one Shahed had been observed at a record altitude of 4,900 meters. According to Zelensky, Ukraine is now deploying F-16 and Mirage fighter jets to supplement air defenses. 'We are also moving towards drone-to-drone interceptors,' he said Tuesday. Ukraine's former military chief, Valerii Zaluzhnyi, says Ukraine must wage a 'high-tech war of survival' in which drones play a critical role, to 'make the economic burden of the war unbearable for Russia.' Speaking to a Kyiv forum last week, Zaluzhnyi – now Ukraine's ambassador to London - said that his country had failed to exploit innovations 'where yesterday we were ahead of the enemy. The enemy has already outpaced us.' Analysts cite Russia's growing use of short-range fiber-optic drones that can't be jammed as one example of the technological race. Ukraine is yet to scale up the use of such drones, which rely on millimeters-thick, but miles-long, optical fibers. Zelensky denied Ukraine was losing the drone war. 'We will have the same number of drones as the Russians, 300-500 per day - we are very close to it,' he said. The issue was not production, Zelensky said – it was financial. As Ukraine seeks to produce more of its own weapons – often in association with Western manufacturers, Zelensky added: 'I would like to see us receive $30 billion to launch Ukrainian production at full capacity.' But that is a long-term goal. Watling, from RUSI, envisages a tough few months for Ukraine that 'will place a premium on the efficiency of Ukrainian drone and artillery operations, the ability of Ukrainian commanders to preserve their troops, and the continuity of supplies flowing from Ukraine's international partners.' The continuation of US supplies is unsure as Trump blows hot and cold about whether Washington should continue helping Ukraine defend itself. Putin is 'desperately seeking to prevent the future supply of Western military aid to Ukraine,' according to ISW, 'as well-resourced Ukrainian forces have consistently demonstrated their ability to inflict unsustainable losses on Russian forces.' Innovation and tactical agility will be as influential as brute force as the war enters its fourth summer. CNN's Kosta Gak and Victoria Butenko contributed reporting.
New York Post
4 days ago
- Politics
- New York Post
Putin is betting he can make Trump so mad he gives up on peace and Ukraine, expert says
It's the Russian gambit. Russian President Vladimir Putin is hoping that his increased attacks on Ukraine and repeated dismissal of cease-fire deals will make President Trump so angry and frustrated with the peace process that America will give up on Ukraine altogether, one longtime Russia watcher says. Tensions have reached a boiling point between the world leaders after Trump slammed Putin as 'crazy' and warned him that he was 'playing with fire' after record drone and missile attacks on Ukraine this week, with the Kremlin mocking him as overly emotional. Advertisement The constant antagonization, however, is likely all part of Putin's gamble to strip Ukraine of its biggest ally. And Trump's frustration spilling over to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky shows it could be working, George Barros, of the Institute for the Study of War think tank, told The Post. 5 Russian President Vladimir Putin is allegedly trying to frustrate President Trump to the point where he abandons cease-fire efforts in Ukraine. AP 5 A civilian stands near the ruins of a residential building that was destroyed by the Kremlin's widespread bombings. AP Barros, who leads the ISW's Russia and geospatial intelligence teams, said Putin's main goal is to destroy the coalition of international support for Ukraine, which has kept Kyiv in the fight with a constant flow of money and high-tech western weapons. Advertisement The Kremlin's greatest prize is ending US support. 'Putin is trying to shape Trump's path forward… and what he wants is for Trump to get exasperated, for the president to say, 'My time is too valuable to be wasted on this,'' Barros said. Putin got a taste of that over the weekend when, along with criticizing Russia, Trump slammed Ukraine and the Biden administration for failing to reach a cease-fire and suggesting the US may abandon its role in mediating a cease-fire. Advertisement 'This is Zelensky's, Putin's, and Biden's War, not 'Trump's,' I am only helping to put out the big and ugly fires, that have been started through Gross Incompetence and Hatred,' Trump blasted on Truth Social Sunday. 5 Trump has warned Putin that he's 'playing with fire,' following Moscow's latest mass bombings and rebuke of cease-fire efforts. AP John Herbst, a former US ambassador to Ukraine and senior director of the Atlantic Council think tank's Eurasia Center, said Trump's recent comments have solidified Putin's belief that the US is all bark and no bite. 'Putin no doubt takes solace that in the Truth Social post that labeled him 'CRAZY,' because Trump also slammed Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy for 'talking the way he does,'' Herbst wrote. Advertisement 'At this point, Putin reads Trump, like other Western leaders since Russia's 2008 war in Georgia, as unwilling to take strong action against aggression,' he added. 5 Russia has continued to fire larger and larger aerial strikes over the border in recent weeks. ZAPORIZHZHIA REGIONAL MILITARY ADMINISTRATION HANDOUT/EPA-EFE/Shutterstock Herbst noted that despite previous criticisms against Russia, Trump has yet to follow through on any of his threats, including joining European leaders in sanctioning Moscow last week. State-controlled news outlets have also had a field day with Trump's rebuke, with propaganda outlet Russia Today opening mocking the president's latest comments on X. 'President Trump warns Moscow, claiming Russia avoided 'REALLY BAD' consequences only thanks to him 'Putin doesn't realize… he's playing with fire!' — Trump's message leaves little room for misinterpretation. Until he posts the opposite tomorrow morning,' the outlet wrote. 5 Trump had threatened to sanction Russia if it did not agree to a cease-fire deal to end the deadly war last week, but no sanctions have been placed so far. SERGEY DOLZHENKO/EPA-EFE/Shutterstock Barros, however, said Putin's actions were still a gamble, as his provocations could ultimately lead to Trump doubling down on supporting Kyiv and punishing the personal attacks with harsh sanctions. Advertisement 'Putin may find that he doesn't understand Trump the way he thinks he does, so this strategy can certainly backfire,' Barros said. 'We're reaching a watershed moment on how the US will participate in this conflict,' he added.
Egypt Independent
4 days ago
- Politics
- Egypt Independent
Russia is unleashing aerial terror against Ukrainian civilians to make it seem like it is winning, experts say
CNN — Third-grader Stanislav Martynyuk looks extremely proud in his school photograph. Hands folded on his desk; his eyes framed with spectacles that make him look like a serious – and adorable – 8-year-old scholar. It was this image of Stanislav – alongside similar snaps of his sister Tamara, 12, and brother Roman, 17 – that was put on display at a makeshift memorial at their school in Korostyshiv and shared on social media after the three siblings died when a Russian strike hit their home over the weekend. The trio was among at least 14 civilians killed over the weekend in the latest wave of Moscow's escalating aerial assaults against Ukrainian cities. Analysts say the brutal campaign is part of a deliberate strategy by Russia that is designed to create an impression that it has the upper hand in the conflict, undermine Ukraine's morale and put more pressure on Kyiv's Western allies. Russia first began intensifying airborne attacks against Ukraine last fall, after it successfully scaled up domestic production of its own version of the Iranian-made Shahed drones, its most frequently used drone. But the frequency and scale of these strikes increased again in January, after US President Donald Trump returned to the White House. Five of Russia's biggest drone attacks were all launched since then. Four of the five came over the past 10 days, according to a tally compiled by CNN. Trump has made ending the war in Ukraine one of his priorities – having said during the election campaign that he would bring the conflict to an end within 24 hours of taking office. Photos shared by the Gustav Olizar Lyceum in Korostyshiv show Stanislav, Tamara and Roman Martynyuk, three siblings killed by a Russian strike. Gustav Olizar Lyceum in Korostyshiv But despite the promises, Trump seems to have grown increasingly impatient with Moscow and Kyiv. He has been flip-flopping between threatening to punish Russia with more sanctions if it doesn't sign up to a ceasefire proposal and suggesting he could walk away from the issue altogether. Over the weekend, after Russia launched its biggest aerial assault against Ukraine since the start of the war, Trump said on social media that Putin 'has gone absolutely CRAZY!' before telling reporters that he was 'not happy with what Putin is doing.' But Trump also slammed Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky for suggesting that 'America's silence' encourages Putin to continue his onslaught. He said Zelensky does his country disservice because 'everything out of his mouth causes problems, I don't like it, and it better stop.' Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said Tuesday that should Ukraine 'misbehave' in fighting against Russia with drones, it will 'get hurt.' No matter if peace negotiations are underway, or 'if President Trump says something or not, Russia will ensure its security,' Peskov said. The only way to win Analysts at the Institute for the Study of War, a US-based conflict monitor, said that Russia's brutal aerial campaign is part of the strategy to create the illusion that it is winning the war, in an 'effort to degrade Ukrainian morale and convince the West that a Russian victory in Ukraine is inevitable and that supporting Ukraine is futile.' Putin knows that the only way Russia could win the war in Ukraine any time soon is if Ukraine's Western allies, the United States chief among them, stop supporting Kyiv in its war efforts. Ukraine's European allies have seen an increase in instances of sabotage, cyber incidents and arson attacks linked to Russia, an attempt by Moscow to put more pressure on Kyiv-friendly governments by trying to show their voters that supporting Kyiv comes with a cost. At the same time, Putin is successfully stalling the ceasefire talks proposed by Trump – while trying to appear cooperative and shift the blame on Kyiv. Instead of refusing Trump's ceasefire proposal straight away, the Russian president has been introducing new demands and blaming Kyiv for not accepting them. When given an ultimatum, Putin ignored it and called for direct talks between Ukraine and Russia – something Trump immediately endorsed, blindsiding Ukraine's other Western allies. Trump has repeatedly indicated he does not want US military assistance to Kyiv to continue as it was. Earlier this year, the US briefly suspended shipments of aid to Ukraine over Trump's disagreement with Zelensky. While the aid has been reinstated, the incident gave a clear indication to Putin that Trump is willing to abandon Ukraine. Trump has also made it clear he believed Ukraine is on the backfoot. He even told Zelensky he had 'no cards' during the contentious Oval Office meeting in February, trying to pressure the Ukrainian leader into negotiations. But while Russia does have air superiority over Ukraine, which allows Moscow to terrorize the Ukrainian population on daily basis, it is far from 'winning' the war. Leading Russia analyst Mark Galeotti previously told CNN that the situation on the ground in Ukraine is better described as both sides losing. 'The thing though is that the Ukrainians are losing faster,' he said. When Russia launched its full-scale unprovoked invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the Kremlin expected to take over the country within a few days. That has not happened because Ukraine mounted a surprisingly strong defense. And as Western support for Kyiv increased, Ukraine was able to push back and reclaim large swaths of territory that were seized by Russia during the initial invasion. The frontline in Ukraine has not moved in a significant way since Ukrainian forces liberated the southern city of Kherson in November 2023. Russia has advanced in some areas along the frontline, but it has not been able to break through or take over a major city. An explosion lights up the sky over Kyiv during a Russian drone strike on Saturday. Gleb Garanich/Reuters Yet the consequences of the Russian strikes have been horrifying. At least 209 civilians were killed across Ukraine last month, the deadliest month since September 2024, according to the UN Human Rights Monitoring Mission in Ukraine. It was a particularly deadly month for Ukrainian children – the worst since June 2022. On top of 19 who were killed, 78 were injured. May has been equally terrifying for Ukrainian civilians. Interior Minister Ihor Klymenko said on Telegram that the weekend's attacks showed once again that Russia's goal is 'fear and death.' Klymenko said the parents of the three slain Martynyuk children were wounded in the strike, their mother seriously. Roman, the oldest child, was just days away from graduating, the school where all three attended said in a statement. Tamara's teacher, Oleh Hodovaniuk, told CNN Monday was a very difficult day for the school. Signs of the war were all around them. The school windows have been blown out by the pressure wave from the explosions. A memorial point at the school's entrance was flooded with flowers and plush toys. Hodovaniuk said the news shocked the community to its core and some children were so distraught they were unable to come to school and take part in the memorial. 'No one coordinated this, but most of the school came wearing black,' he said. 'Tamara was very well behaved and modest, like all the children in her family.'
Miami Herald
5 days ago
- Politics
- Miami Herald
Putin Ally Shares Map Of ‘Buffer Zone' Covering All Of Ukraine
Former Russian president Dmitry Medvedev has warned that Russia would end up occupying almost all of Ukraine if it continued to receive Western weapons, posting a map to illustrate his claim. The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said that at the current rate of Moscow's advances in its full-scale invasion, it would take roughly a century to capture the territory Vladimir Putin's ally had proposed. Newsweek has contacted the Russian defense ministry for comment. Now deputy chairman of Russia's Security Council, Medvedev had served as the country's head of state between 2008 and 2012 and posted fiery messages on social media threatening the West for its support of Ukraine. He and other Russian officials have repeatedly called for the establishment of buffer zones in northern Ukraine to place Russian cities out of the range of Ukraine's Western-provided long-range strike system. The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said Medvedev's latest statement is part of a Kremlin strategy to justify Russia's aggression against Ukraine and the long-term occupation of Ukrainian territory. In a post on Telegram, Medvedev referred to Moscow's disparaging term for the government in Kyiv by writing if "military aid to the Banderite regime continues, the buffer zone could look like this." Derived from the name of Ukrainian nationalist Stepan Bandera, the term is pejoratively used by the Kremlin against the government in Kyiv, to falsely paint it as having Nazi sympathies and as part of Moscow's rhetoric over its war aims to "denazify" the country it invaded. The text was next to an image which showed the whole of Ukraine under Moscow's occupation apart from a relatively small area of the Volyn and Lviv oblasts along Poland's border. Medvedev and Russian officials have called for Kyiv to concede occupied and unoccupied territory in the regions of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, which Moscow claims to have annexed but does not fully control. The ISW cast doubt on the likelihood of it ever being able to capture this territory. However, the Washington, D.C. think tank said that given Russian forces have advanced an average of 5.5 square miles a day since in 2025, it would take nearly four years to capture the rest of the regions it has declared annexed. It would also take around 91 years to seize the entirety of the 226,819 square miles contained in Medvedev's proposed "buffer zone," it added. This time frame assumes Russia can maintain its current rate of advance and does not take into account geographic and defensive barriers. Russian forces have not seized a major urban area since the capture of Bakhmut in May, 2023. Meanwhile, the estimated 1,500 daily Russian casualties which current and former Western officials have told The Washington Post Moscow is facing, meant that Medvedev's proposal would result in 50 million casualties—over a third of the current Russian population, the ISW added. Deputy chairman of Russia's Security Council, Dmitry Medvedev on Telegram: "If military aid to the Banderite regime continues, the buffer zone could look like this." Institute for the Study of War: "Russian forces would need roughly a century to seize Medvedev's proposed 'buffer zone' at their current rate of advance at the cost of nearly 50 million casualties at current loss rates." Putin said last week that a decision has been made to establish a security buffer zone along the Russia-Ukraine border. But the ISW noted how Russian forces have not shown they have not been able to conduct the rapid, multidirectional offensive operations needed to swiftly seize territory, suggesting that Medvedev's post was an idle threat. However, Kremlin rhetoric is likely to remain belligerent as the West wrangles over how to continue its military assistance to Kyiv. Related Articles Russia Sees $1 Billion Wiped off Stock Market After Trump's Putin CommentsUkrainian MiG-29 Fighter Jets Bomb Russian Special Services BaseChina Denies Ukraine's Russia Weapons ClaimRussian Bots Roast 'Clown' Donald Trump After Putin Comments 2025 NEWSWEEK DIGITAL LLC.
