End of an Era: Final day for Hudson's Bay
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Vancouver Sun
2 hours ago
- Vancouver Sun
Young families are shrinking their mortgages. But does this mean they are priced out?
Younger Canadian families are bucking the national trend and reducing their overall mortgage debt , figures from Statistics Canada suggest, but the decrease may not be all good news. After hitting a peak in the third quarter of 2022, average mortgage balances among families where the primary income earner is aged 35 or younger have fallen by about $15,500, according to a report out Tuesday from Toronto-Dominion Bank citing data from Statistics Canada. Even accounting for any seasonal variation, when comparing the first quarter of 2023 to this first quarter of 2025, there was an 8.5 per cent decline (or about $10,400 less on average) in mortgage balances among younger Canadians, said Maria Solovieva, TD economist and author of the report. Start your day with a roundup of B.C.-focused news and opinion. By signing up you consent to receive the above newsletter from Postmedia Network Inc. A welcome email is on its way. If you don't see it, please check your junk folder. The next issue of Sunrise will soon be in your inbox. Please try again Interested in more newsletters? Browse here. All other age groups have seen a steady increase in household mortgage debt since the second quarter of 2020, Statistics Canada data show. It is likely many younger households are unable to access the housing market altogether due to affordability challenges , Solovieva said. After home prices hit their peak in March 2022, following the frenzy of homebuying amid lower interest rates during the COVID-19 pandemic, the Bank of Canada started raising interest rates and home sales began to soften. Solovieva said younger Canadians have been prioritizing reducing their debt obligations in the face of rising borrowing costs. About 35 per cent of young adults are likely to rent, compared with less than a quarter of older age groups, according to Statistics Canada's 2024 Canadian Social Survey. There may also be other reasons for the drop in mortgage balances among young people. It is possible some younger Canadians are purchasing cheaper homes or own their homes outright, especially if they have received financial gifts from their parents, Solovieva said. Since the total value of real estate assets for younger Canadians has grown since the third quarter of 2022, it suggests more people in this age group are receiving financial help to buy homes than those who may be buying less expensive homes, Solovieva said. In the meantime, older Canadians are taking on more debt, although there is no sign they are taking on more investment properties or renovations to account for this, she said. In fact, Statistics Canada reported recently that households aged 55 to 64 years increased their mortgage balances by more than eight per cent from the first quarter of 2024 to the same period in 2025, while those aged 65 years and older increased their mortgage balances by nearly nine per cent. Older Canadians are expected to pass down $1 trillion to their heirs over the next few years, according to the most recent data from the Chartered Professional Accountants Canada. Many wealth advisers have reported these wealth transfers are already arriving in the form of early inheritances; in most cases to help adult children purchase their first homes. A 2024 Bank of Canada report also found more than 20 per cent of first-time home buyers received gifts to help make their down payments. Younger first-time home buyers were even more likely to receive gifts when purchasing their homes. This could exacerbate an existing trend, Solovieva said. Data show the lowest-income young households have seen their debt-to-income ratio balloon from 244 per cent before the pandemic to 446 per cent in Q1 2025. 'A lot of wealth (is) built through real estate, (so) somebody who is not in the market is left out,' said Solovieva, noting existing homeowners have largely benefited from rising real estate values over time. 'It's basically going to continue on as long as we still have this dynamic of unaffordability.' Solovieva does not expect this trend of waning mortgage balances to entirely reverse in the near future but does anticipate it to level off as immigration levels decline, which could cool growth in housing prices. The latest report from the Canadian Real Estate Association revealed the national average sale price was down 1.3 per cent year-over-year to hit $691,643 in June. • Email: slouis@
Global News
4 hours ago
- Global News
How Canada-U.S. trade talks could shape the potential recession risk
As the deadline looms for a new trade deal between Canada and the U.S., economists say what the deal contains could determine a key possibility — how bad a potential recession could be. On Monday, Prime Minister Mark Carney said he would only sign a deal that was 'a good deal for Canada' and that 'negotiations are at an intense phase' towards a new trade deal with the U.S. If one isn't reached by Aug. 1, U.S. President Donald Trump has threatened to hit Canada with more tariffs of 35 per cent. At the same time, economists are watching closely for the risk of a recession. 'We are so far sticking to a view that we see a very shallow technical recession in Canada for the second quarter, third quarter. Very mild contraction,' said Sal Guatieri, director and senior economist at BMO Capital Markets. Story continues below advertisement However, that depends on one key caveat. 1:57 'Trump ate von der Leyen for breakfast': EU leaders react to 'unbalanced' trade deal with US 'That assumes we do work out a trade deal with the U.S. and it keeps that average effective tariff rate close to six per cent (and) does not pile on too many new sectoral duties in the months ahead,' he added. Get daily National news Get the day's top news, political, economic, and current affairs headlines, delivered to your inbox once a day. Sign up for daily National newsletter Sign Up By providing your email address, you have read and agree to Global News' Terms and Conditions and Privacy Policy With a six per cent effective tariff rate, Canada's economy could potentially start recovering by the end of the year, Guatieri said. 'It does hurt, but it's manageable and something that Canadian businesses ultimately could adjust to and live with.' The reason the effective tariff rate on Canada is relatively low, at six per cent, is that goods that comply with the Canada-U.S.-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA) were exempt from Trump's broad-based tariffs back in April. Story continues below advertisement Not everyone agrees that a recession is likely, either. 'We don't have a recessionary outlook again for later this year. If CUSMA exemptions do hold, which is what we're expecting right now, we don't expect there will be significant changes to the outlook either,' said Claire Fan, senior economist at RBC. 3:32 'It may seem like it's a long way (off)': Carney says Canada needs 'right' trade deal with U.S. While Canada is expecting a trade deal with some tariffs, Fan said CUSMA exemptions might help Canada avoid a worst-case scenario economic downturn since it puts it ahead of the U.S.'s other major trade partners. 'It reflects a comparative advantage as a key exporter to the United States. It's not so much about the exemptions themselves, but more so what it means for Canadian exporters relative to, let's say, exporters from Europe or from one of the other major U.S. trade partners,' she said. Story continues below advertisement If the status quo holds, Fan expects that the 'bulk of the damage is already done' to Canada's labour market. However, if Trump's tariffs on Canadian steel, aluminum and automobiles continue after Friday, those sectors could see further losses. 'It's a blow for the auto industry (and to) steel and aluminum. There will be some pain there, maybe further layoffs. But for the overall economy and other industries, it is a manageable tariff to absorb, Guatieri said. 4:59 Canada – U.S. trade negotiations ahead of deadline 'We are seeing very pronounced damage in sectors where you would expect damage to be showing up. These are largely very trade-exposed sectors. Manufacturing is one, and a lot of the related sectors, for example, warehousing and transportation,' Fan said. So far, the damage from tariffs has been most heavily localized in southern Ontario and Quebec, Fan said. Story continues below advertisement 'If you were to look at the unemployment rate in southern Ontario, it's approaching 10 to 11 per cent in Windsor and is really elevated in other parts like Peterborough as well. In Toronto, too, which is above where the national average is,' she said. If CUSMA exemptions hold, Guatieri expects much of the country to escape the worst effects of Trump's trade war. 'We think most of the rest of the country is somewhat insulated from this trade war. Unfortunately, Ontario and Quebec are not,' he said.
Cision Canada
4 hours ago
- Cision Canada
Readout - Prime Minister Carney speaks with Prime Minister of Singapore Lawrence Wong Français
OTTAWA, ON, July 29, 2025 /CNW/ - Today, the Prime Minister, Mark Carney, spoke with the Prime Minister of Singapore, Lawrence Wong. In the face of shifting global trade and economic uncertainty, the leaders acknowledged the 60-year diplomatic relationship between the two countries and discussed boosting co-operation, noting the growing opportunities through the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP). The prime ministers discussed increasing trade and investment, particularly in the agri-food and nuclear energy sectors. Prime Minister Carney and Prime Minister Wong welcomed progress toward a Canada-ASEAN free trade agreement and look forward to meeting at the ASEAN Summit in Malaysia in October.
