Why I'm Not Getting Cute with My Open Championship Picks
Like with every other major, in the days leading up to the first round, everyone is scrambling to find the next J.J. Spaun or Shane Lowry story — some guy nobody is really talking about who's going to come out of nowhere and win. You know what, though? Sometimes, the most obvious answer is the right one, and this week feels like that.
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I've been covering golf long enough to know that when the conditions get nasty (and they will), the cream rises to the top. So, while everyone else is hunting for 40-to-1 long shots, I'm parking my money on the two guys who've been playing the best golf all year.
Scottie Scheffler — Yeah, He's Boring. So What?
I get it; Scheffler isn't exactly the most exciting pick. But here's the thing that everyone seems to miss while they're obsessing over his putting: The guy just doesn't crack under pressure. Ever.
Watch him play a major. While everyone else is losing their minds, Scheffler looks like he's playing a casual round with his buddies. It's not an accident that he's finished in the top 10 in all three majors this year. That's what happens when you have ice in your veins and a game plan for everything.
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And about that putting everyone keeps harping on — have you seen Royal Portrush's greens? They're absolute torture chambers. When everyone else is struggling to two-putt, Scheffler's steady approach actually becomes an advantage. He's not trying to hole everything; he's just trying not to three-putt. Smart golf wins Opens.
His track record at these courses tells the story too. Tied for eighth in 2021, figured some things out. Tied for seventh at Royal Troon last year, figured out more things. This feels like his moment to put it all together.
Rory McIlroy — The Weight Is Finally Off
Winning the Masters Tournament this year changed everything for Rory. Not just because he completed the career Grand Slam but because he finally stopped carrying around a decade of "what if" on his shoulders.
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His 79 in the first round in 2019 at Royal Portrush was painful to watch. That wasn't a guy playing golf — that was a guy drowning in expectations. But that Rory is gone. He was dead and buried at Augusta National Golf Club.
Now he's playing with this weird sense of freedom. Three wins this season, including some emotional ones that show he's not just going through the motions anymore. He actually looks like he's enjoying himself out there.
There are a lot of people talking about his driving accuracy issues, but honestly? I think they're overthinking it. Rory has always had a tendency to get a little wild off the tee, but don't forget, he is one of the best scramblers in the game today. When the wind picks up and everyone's hitting it offline, his creativity around the greens becomes a massive asset.
Plus, he's playing at home. That crowd is going to be insane. If he can feed off that energy instead of letting it suffocate him, watch out.
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The Guys Who Could Spoil the Party
Xander Schauffele — Everyone is writing him off because he's been quiet this year, but defending champions have a funny way of showing up when it matters. His tie for eighth at both the Masters and last week's Genesis Scottish Open are not a coincidence. That's timing.
Xander Schauffele celebrates with the Claret Jug after winning the 2024 Open Championship at Royal Troon.
J.J. Spaun — Fresh off winning the U.S. Open, carrying all that confidence. Plus, he's never played an Open Championship before, so he has no bad memories to deal with. Sometimes, ignorance is bliss.
Bryson DeChambeau — I know, I know. Everyone thinks Royal Portrush will "expose" his power game. But have you watched this guy lately? He's clearly learned how to play golf, not just bomb drives. When conditions get weird, his weird approach might actually work in his attempt at the Claret Jug.
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Matt Fitzpatrick — That tie for fourth at the Genesis Scottish Open last week caught my attention. After two years of struggling, he looked like the Fitzpatrick who won the 2022 U.S. Open. His short game has always been ridiculous, and that matters more than distance when the wind is howling.
The U.K. Heroes
Shane Lowry will get the biggest roar when he walks to the first tee Thursday, but re-creating 2019 magic is different from creating it the first time. Still, four top-10 finishes this season show he's not just coasting on past glory.
Robert MacIntyre has that tie for sixth from 2019 and just finished second at the U.S. Open. He'll be playing with crowd support on a course where he's already proved he can contend.
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Justin Rose brings 22 Open Championships' worth of experience, but experience without current form is just expensive education. Though that tie for sixth at the Genesis Scottish Open last week was encouraging.
Why I'm Not Overthinking This
Here's the deal: Royal Portrush is going to be brutal. The wind will blow, the course will be firm, and guys who aren't ready for that level of difficulty are going to get chewed up and spit out.
When that happens, you want the guys who've been there before. Who've proved they can handle the pressure. Who aren't going to let one bad hole turn into three bad holes.
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Scheffler and McIlroy have been the two best players in the world this year. They've both shown they can handle major championship pressure. They've both played well in Open Championships before.
Sometimes, the most obvious answer is the right answer. This feels like one of those times.
Related: When Magic Almost Happened: Remembering Tom Watson's Heartbreaking Dance With Destiny at Turnberry
Related: Why Links Golf and Britain's Ancient Courses Hit Differently Than Anything We Have in America
Related: The Story with Rory: McIlroy's Post-Masters Struggles Show Human Side of Greatness
This story was originally reported by Athlon Sports on Jul 16, 2025, where it first appeared.
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