Weather Blog: Severe weather likely over the next few days
You've probably heard us say this a time or two, but when the general flow of the atmosphere is out of the southwest, it becomes a real struggle for models. What that means is it will be hard to pinpoint the exact timing and placement of these storms. Also, with southwest flow, models often underestimate the intensity.
There are a few days when severe weather could be possible across Northwest Arkansas.
The main threat would be isolated supercells capable of producing hen egg (2″+) sized hail. The time frame is from about 9 am until 5:00 pm. In the late morning it will likely be one or two cells whereas in the afternoon, we could see a few supercells.
Here's what one model is outputting. This won't be exactly what happens, but the general idea of an isolated threat in the morning, followed by another round in the afternoon, mainly east of I-49.
Let me preface by saying we're still a good ways out, so timing could still shift a little bit, but our next batch of subtle energy will be moving in, leading to more rain and storms Saturday night and throughout Sunday. I think the severe thunderstorm threat stays just west of here, but could have a few storms get close to that severe criteria.
The main threat again seems to be very large hail. This far out, it doesn't make much sense to show a future track, as the solutions will change from run to run between now and then.
Monday is the beginning of the large-scale trough starting to swing in. As of now, all the ingredients for severe weather potential seem to come together. I think the main threat, once again, would be large hail. We will still have some fairly subtle flow, but there will be support from the jet stream. We will have a lot of divergence or spreading out of winds aloft, so that means converging of the winds at the surface, which means some pretty explosive thunderstorms. Things could change dramatically if the energy swings in earlier or later.
Similar to Monday, plenty of fuel and upper-level support for severe storms, however, we will also have the strong lift coming in sometime Tuesday.
We will keep a close eye on how things evolve and how models are performing over the next few days. We DO NOT have an Alert Day right now, but just know it has got our attention.
The best way to stay updated when there's a severe weather threat is to download YOUR Weather Authority App.
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