More people are joining the military. A shaky US job market could be boosting the numbers.

Business Insider

2 days ago

Military recruiting numbers are up — the Army met its annual goal of recruiting 61,000 troops months early and signs indicate Navy numbers are in good shape. But what is it exactly that is driving the jump? Recruiting officials say it's complicated.
For the past several years, the Army and Navy fell thousands of new recruits short, a trend that only began to reverse at the end of last year — which the new administration has promoted as stemming from President Donald Trump's leadership and a surge of patriotism.
The shift seems to turn on a shaky economy that's hiring less and the soaring costs of higher education, recruiting officials told BI. While the US labor market has relatively low unemployment, layoffs in the federal workforce, federal policy uncertainty, and 2025 recession fears have left companies hesitant to hire and employees less likely to quit.
Fewer job openings and a slowing economy have historically pushed more young job seekers toward the military. That doesn't tell the whole story, though.
Nearly 75% of young Americans cannot meet the health, fitness, and academic standards required to join the military, presenting a major challenge for recruiters.
To confront the problem, the Army and Navy have made herculean efforts to usher not-yet-qualified young people into what are effectively pre-boot camps where they can lose weight, improve run times, and boost their test scores before officially joining. These changes instituted in recent years are paying off with a higher number of recruits in the pipeline, paving the way for the services to better meet their annual goals.
But the services may also be benefiting from a shifting economic landscape in which the steep cost of higher education and fewer openings in the traditional labor market could mean that more young people are looking for alternative career paths with a promise of stability and education benefits.
Fewer job openings could spur young people to the military
Instead of solely focusing on unemployment rates to understand why more and more young people may be choosing to enlist, a more accurate way to view military recruiting is through the lens of the Beveridge Curve, which compares how the unemployment rate stacks up against job vacancies, said Col. Lee Evans, Army Recruiting Command's director of market intelligence.
Low unemployment and a high number of job openings indicate a growing labor market. Lately, however, lower unemployment has been met with limited job openings — meaning the economy is slowing, as shown in the chart below.
Postings on the job-search platform Indeed decreased by 10% throughout 2024, and the federal nonfarm job openings rate has been trending down since 2022. Job seekers are scrambling as opportunities dry up across tech, computer science, government agencies, and more, factors that could be a boon for military recruiting.
"What we've seen over the last couple years is that unemployment rates remain relatively low, right around 4%, but we've seen the job openings rate decrease," Evans said.
"Many times, that provides a skills mismatch out in the labor market," he said. "And we're postured well to compete in that arena, because we have so many offerings within the Army."
Evans added that in a volatile job market, young people might be more attracted to the military's career opportunities with transferable skills for later civilian life, like working as an electrician or HR specialist. Gen Z is already turning toward traditionally blue-collar technical careers.
However, other jobs, including those in combat arms like artillery or infantry, can be much more difficult to transfer to the civilian sector.
Brig. Gen. Christopher Amrhein, the commander of the Air Force Recruiting Service, told BI that young people are increasingly seeking jobs in air traffic control, firefighting, and cybersecurity, roles likely to lend a degree of long-term stability outside the service.
Amrhein said another positive figure for recruiting is the surplus of soon-to-be recruits waiting in the military's "delayed entry program," which serves as a sort of holding pattern for future recruits to depart for boot camp at a later date.
"From that standpoint, we're still garnering more and more talent in our Air Force and Space Force of an unbelievable quality," he added.
Gen Z could see military service as an alternative to long job hunts and student loan debt
Economic instability and fewer job openings aren't the only factors at play. The exorbitant cost of college has helped maintain a steady demand for college ROTC programs, Evans said.
In 2023, a quarter of US adults under 40 had outstanding student loan debt. The military offers an alternative to debt for future officers: it can cover all or some of a student's tuition in exchange for four to eight years of service.
Brig. Gen. Sara Dudley, the deputy commanding general of Army Recruiting Command, told BI that young people appear to be taking more time to decide what path they want to take, be it military service or something else.
"It's really a couple of years after high school that they're ready to commit to making what feels like a big decision," she said.
Enlisting is enticing for recent high school grads and twentysomethings, a chance to learn new skills and unlock generous education benefits with the GI Bill and tuition assistance programs. Many also carry on a family tradition of service in uniform, a longtime source of recruits that shrinks with each generation. Enlisted troops make up roughly 80% of the force.
For those with or pursuing a bachelor's degree, a few years as an officer may be an increasingly attractive way for young people to build professional experience without the stress of student loans or an immediate post-grab job hunt. A similar trend occurred in 2009, following the widespread financial instability of the 2008 recession.
America's slower birth rates aren't yet showing up in recruitment data, though the drop seems poised to hit the services soon. In 2007, the US saw over 4.3 million births. But the 2008 financial crisis prompted a drop that has largely persisted since.
"That 2007 to 2008 timeframe, that's just now starting to get into our recruitable population," Evans said, referring to the military's eligible pool of young people.
Even as military recruitment stands to gain from a costly higher education system and an unsteady job market,lower birth rates could present a new enduring challenge.
"We're going to see that come into our recruitable population, and we know we're going to have to adapt to it," he said. "And we're already preparing for that."