Explained: The rift in Western world over Gaza, and its possible impact

Indian Express

3 days ago

With the humanitarian crisis in Gaza growing more alarming, Israel Sunday said it would halt military operations for 10 hours a day in parts of Gaza and allow new aid corridors.
Days before, Israel and the United States had withdrawn from ceasefire negotiations with Hamas, citing the Palestinian group's lack of 'good faith'. The following day, on Friday, French President Emmanuel Macron announced his country would declare its recognition of a Palestinian state at the United Nations in September, drawing criticism from both the US and Israel.
On July 21, 25 countries including Italy, Canada, UK, Japan, France and the EU had asserted that 'the war in Gaza must end now'. In recent days, multiple Western leaders, including Macron, UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer, Canadian PM Mark Carney, and Australian PM Anthony Albanese have strongly criticised Israel's actions in Gaza.
These developments represent a global rift — including in the West — when it comes to Israel and Palestine. It is yet to be seen what this will mean on the ground.
Israel's war on Gaza
Over the past month, Israel's approach to Gaza has turned more decisive. With the US withdrawing from the ceasefire negotiations, Israel appears to have a carte blanche both for its maximalist military objective of eliminating Hamas and its maximalist political objective of a permanent occupation of Gaza.
A chorus of Israeli ministers, like Itamar Ben-Gvir, continue to call for Palestinians to 'leave' Gaza. Defence Minister Israel Katz has laid out Israel's immediate plans for the Strip. This includes building a 'humanitarian city' on the ruins of Rafah where 600,000 Palestinians would initially be 'moved' and 'not be allowed to leave, except to go to other countries'. This plan, which will eventually include all of Gaza's population of roughly 2.1 million people, has been described as a potential concentration camp by several experts, including former Israeli PM Ehud Olmert.
Israel's latest strategy of allegedly shooting unarmed Palestinians lining up for aid has triggered more pointed criticism from Western capitals outside the US. The July 21 joint statement stated that the 'Israeli government's aid delivery model is dangerous, fuels instability and deprives Gazans of human dignity'.
Aid into the besieged Palestinian enclave is currently being routed through the Israeli-American Gaza Humanitarian Foundation (GHF). There is growing evidence of starving Palestinians being slaughtered outside GHF centres; the UN reports that more than 1,000 Palestinians in Gaza have been killed by Israel since the GHF began operations on May 27.
This comes even as more than a hundred humanitarian aid organisations have warned that a 'mass famine' is spreading in Gaza. The World Food Program, an arm of the UN, said recently that the hunger crisis in Gaza had reached 'new and astonishing levels of desperation, with a third of the population not eating for multiple days in a row.'
Global positions on Palestine
The French decision to recognise Palestinian statehood is representative of a growing rift in the global order vis-à-vis Israel and Palestine.
* The US and Israel reject any push for a Palestinian state. The alliance of the two stakeholders with the greatest ability to affect changes on the ground has held firm even as global pressures on Israel increase.
* Several Western states, such as Canada, UK, and Germany, however, are seemingly breaking from the US-Israel alliance. While they do back Israel's immediate objectives, they also remain committed to potentially implementing the two-state solution.
Note, however, that these countries also retain their broader support for Israeli interests. Macron, for instance, called for a demilitarised Palestinian state — which would effectively deny Palestinians full sovereignty.
* The Global South and Arab states seek an immediate end to Israel's current war in Gaza and an inclusive, negotiated two-state solution to the original dispute. However, most of these states have markedly limited abilities to actually shape events on the ground, and Arab states remain disinclined to undertake punitive economic or military measures against Israel.
Status of two-state solution
Broadly, despite the failure of the Oslo Accords of 1995, most states have stood by the two-state solution as the only achievable outcome — even as Israel progressively removes the physical contours of a future Palestinian state and has killed Palestinians at record rates each day since October 2023.
A day before ceasefire talks broke down, the Israeli Knesset passed a non-binding resolution calling for Israel to annex the West Bank. Another Knesset resolution a year ago had rejected the possibility of allowing a sovereign Palestinian state. In June, Israel approved 22 new Jewish settlements in the West Bank.
Most of Israel's West Bank settlements are deemed illegal by the UN and a majority of its member states, including India. That Israeli ministers also look to re-settle Homesh and Sa-Nur in the Northern West Bank, evacuated along with the settlements in Gaza in 2005, is indicative of Israel's concerted push to leverage the war to expand its illegal occupation of Palestinian territories.
It is thus notable that France and Saudi Arabia are set to co-chair an international conference on the two-state solution at the UN from July 28. While a ministerial-level conference on the two-state solution was held at the UN in September 2024, Israel's war of attrition, combined with forced mass starvation, has sparked a renewed push to explore methods to advance the solution.
However, unlike earlier global pushes for a Palestinian state alongside Israel according to pre-1967 borders, the current international effort arguably occurs with the US and Israel being the least amenable. Even as questions over the reform of the Palestinian Authority (restricted to the West Bank since 2007) can be addressed, the question of Hamas' future remains a dead-end.
The upcoming international conference will bolster support for Palestinian statehood (recognised by 147 of the UN's 193 member states) but the degree to which participating states can influence Israeli actions remains unclear. It remains to be seen if the conference propels states to undertake punitive measures of any nature and scale against Israel, failing which Tel Aviv has little incentive to cease hostilities and territorial expansion, especially with continuing US support.
Bashir Ali Abbas is a Senior Research Associate at the Council for Strategic and Defense Research, New Delhi