Deadly Kashmir attack threatens new escalation between India and Pakistan
Indian media blamed the attack on the Resistance Front, a militant group banned by New Delhi in 2023 as a terrorist organization, but there was no verifiable claim of responsibility.
The suddenness of the violence, and the gruesome nature of the killings, sent shock waves across the country, rekindling painful memories from the 1990s when Kashmir was gripped by a bloody insurgency — and civilians often bore the cost.
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India and Pakistan, nuclear-armed rivals that both claim Kashmir and administer separate parts of it, are now at a dangerous crossroad, analysts said, after years of diplomatic stagnation.
'We were in a bad place, and we weren't actively getting worse,' said Srinath Raghavan, a historian and security analyst at Ashoka University. 'Now, it will actively get worse.'
The assault in Pahalgam risks unraveling a fragile cease-fire between India and Pakistan that was sealed through back-channel diplomacy in 2021.
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The agreement halted once-daily exchanges of fire along the Line of Control, the de facto border between Indian- and Pakistani-held Kashmir. The dispute over the territory has led to three wars between the countries.
'That is the last thread that remains in an otherwise very skeletal relationship,' said Happymon Jacob, an international studies professor at Jawaharlal Nehru University. 'If that gets damaged and ruptured, then all bets are off.'
Vikram Misri, India's minister of foreign affairs, told reporters Wednesday that Pakistani nationals would be banned from traveling to India, Indian defense advisers would be withdrawn from Pakistan, and a key water treaty between the countries would be put on hold. Pakistan's energy minister condemned the last move as 'an act of water warfare.'
For decades, armed insurgents in Kashmir — some seeking independence, others favoring accession to Pakistan — have waged a separatist struggle against Indian control. The violence has ebbed in recent years amid an intense crackdown by Indian security forces, whom rights groups have accused of carrying out arbitrary detentions and extrajudicial killings against the Muslim-majority population.
Militants still launched periodic attacks against Indian soldiers, migrant workers, and Hindus, but Tuesday's targeted killings of civilians were an unprecedented escalation.
'Those responsible for the attacks . . . will very soon feel a loud response,' Indian Defense Minister Rajnath Singh said Wednesday.
Though he did not mention Pakistan by name, the implication was clear, and other prominent figures were far more direct.
Shama Mohamed, a spokesperson for the opposition Congress party, said on X Wednesday that 'Rawalpindi should be flattened,' referring to the city where Pakistan's military is headquartered. 'Time to teach Pakistan a lesson they don't forget,' she added.
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India has long accused Islamabad of supporting separatist violence in Kashmir, and Indian security analysts said the perpetrators were probably linked to Lashkar-e-Taiba — the Pakistan-based militant organization that carried out the 2008 attacks in Mumbai, when gunmen killed 166 people and injured more than 300.
Indian politicians and analysts were quick to point to a speech last week by Pakistan's army chief, General Asim Munir, who called Kashmir the country's 'jugular vein,' adding, 'We will not leave our Kashmiri brothers in their heroic struggle.'
Officials in Pakistan condemned Tuesday's killings and rejected accusations of involvement. In a statement Wednesday, the Pakistani Ministry of Foreign Affairs said that it was 'concerned at the loss of tourists' lives.'
'We extend our condolences to the near ones of the deceased and wish the injured a speedy recovery,' the statement continued.
Pakistani Senator Sherry Rehman posted on X that 'the reflexive finger-pointing already at play against Pakistan has become the boilerplate response for a New Delhi that is unable to contain its own spectacular failures.'
Pakistan is mired in a security crisis of its own, struggling to contain attacks by Islamist insurgents and Baloch separatists, some armed with American-made weapons left behind in Afghanistan after the withdrawal of US troops.
The Pahalgam attack coincided with a high-level diplomatic trip to India by Vice President JD Vance, which analysts said was probably no accident. In 2000, militants killed 35 Sikhs in Kashmir during Bill Clinton's state visit to India.
President Trump, in a post on Truth Social on Tuesday, said the United States 'stands strong with India against Terrorism,' adding that India has 'our full support and deepest sympathies.'
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Experts on both sides said the role of Washington will now be critical in determining what happens next.
Pakistan will be 'reaching out to friendly countries, especially the United States, to stop any escalation,' said Hasan Askari Rizvi, a Pakistani political analyst. 'The United States definitely doesn't want war.'
The Indian government revoked Kashmir's semiautonomous status in 2019 and imposed sweeping security measures. New Delhi hailed a return to relative stability, encouraged investment, and trumpeted the return of tourists to the region.
Tuesday's assault upended that narrative in an instant. 'It's misleading to tell your own citizens to come to this place and not ensure their safety and protection,' said Anuradha Bhasin, the managing editor of the Kashmir Times.
Now, analysts said, New Delhi will be weighing how to retaliate.
Syed Akbaruddin, a former Indian diplomat at the United Nations, said the number and diversity of the victims, coming from all corners of India, made a military response more likely.
'It has hit a nerve which not many incidents of violence have,' he said. 'There will be pressure to find the perpetrators and go after them.'
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