Division among Brazilians over Bolsonaro house arrest order could set the tone for next election
Brazil's Supreme Court on Monday issued the order in a case that has gripped the South American country even as it faces a trade war with the Trump administration.
Supporters of the far-right leader and some moderates see the ruling as harsh, while allies of incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and other moderates want to move on and leave the issue for the judiciary.
Creomar de Souza, a political analyst with Dharma Political Risk and Strategy, a political consultancy firm based in Brasilia, said that could be the dynamic of next year's election.
'One is the effort of Bolsonaro supporters to keep strong on the right, no matter if it is pushing for amnesty in congress or putting themselves physically out there,' the analyst said. 'The second is how the Lula administration will try to show that the country has a government.'
Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes, who put Bolsonaro on trial for his alleged role in the coup plot to keep him in office despite his defeat in the 2022 election, ordered the 70-year-old former president's arrest for violating precautionary measures imposed on him by spreading content through his three lawmaker sons.
That decision followed one from the court last month ordering Bolsonaro to wear an electronic ankle monitor and to obey a curfew while the proceedings are underway.
The polarization between supporters and critics of the former president took Brazil's congress by storm Tuesday and was also reflected in figures from pollster Quaest, which say 53% are favorable to the order against the far-right leader and 47% against it. Analysts expect another narrow election next year, with Lula running for reelection and Bolsonaro barred.
The political repercussions in Brazil are getting attention from the U.S. government as President Donald Trump directly tied a 50% tariff on imported Brazilian goods to his ally's judicial situation. Late on Monday, the U.S. State Department's Bureau of Western Hemisphere Affairs condemned the far-right leader's order for house arrest and attacked de Moraes.
Bolsonaro blockade
Since de Moraes' order, Bolsonaro allies are pledging to stop congress unless an amnesty bill is passed in favor of the far-right leader and his supporters involved in the coup plot probe.
Early on Tuesday, a group of 40 pro-Bolsonaro lawmakers told journalists in the capital Brasilia they will push hard for the former president's release. Altineu Cortes, the conservative deputy speaker of the lower house, said he will put the amnesty bill to a vote if he gets the chance.
'I've already told speaker Hugo Motta that I will do that in the first moment I am working as the speaker of the house during one of his trips abroad,' Cortes said.
Later, many of the same lawmakers protested in the lower house and the senate by blocking access to the presiding tables.
"This is an arbitrary action,' said Sen. Davi Alcolumbre, the president of Brazil's senate. 'I call for serenity and spirit of cooperation. We need to start working with respect, civility and dialogue so congress can fulfill its mission in favor of Brazil and our population.'
Members of Brazil's opposition say such a move would also allow Bolsonaro to run in next year's election, from which he was barred by the country's top electoral court for abuse of power in 2022. That claim is denied by many legal experts and also by Supreme Court justices.
Moving on
Meanwhile, Lula and his allies initially showed they wanted to move past the issue of Bolsonaro's house arrest and focus on trade negotiations with Trump, who imposed 50% tariffs on Brazilian import goods starting Wednesday. Trump's justification for the measure was what he called unfair treatment of the far-right leader.
'I don't want to speak about what happened to that other Brazilian citizen who tried to stage a coup,' Lula said during a long speech in Brasilia on Tuesday.
The leftist leader added he will not call Trump to talk about trade 'because he doesn't want to" speak about it. Lula said he might instead 'invite him to attend (November's climate summit) COP in Belem.'
'I came here with the compromise of not wasting much time speaking about tariffs. I will just say the least I can. If I didn't (say anything) you would go: 'Why didn't Lula speak about it? Is he afraid of Trump?' And I don't want you to leave with that impression," he said.
Members of Lula's Cabinet have also avoided discussing Bolsonaro's future. A Brazilian government staffer told The Associated Press that Lula told his ministers that his reelection depends on governing, not on his predecessor's future. The source spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak about the matter publicly.
Moderates speak
If the next Brazilian election has the same standard of the previous face off between Lula and Bolsonaro, the winner will be decided by turnout and a very slim number of moderates.
Gov. Eduardo Leite, a moderate from the Rio Grande do Sul state, embodied the split among many Brazilian voters who will likely have to chose one of the two camps in 2026. A critic of de Moraes' actions against Bolsonaro, Leite does not condone the former president's actions either.
"I don't like the idea of a former president not being able to speak, and even less see him get arrested for that before he is put on trial at the Supreme Court,' Leite said. 'Our country does not deserve to remain hostage to this legal-political tug of war that only hinders us all.'
Gilberto Kassab, the chairman of the centrist Social Democratic Party, has both Bolsonaro and Lula supporters in his party's ranks and said 'exaggeration on both sides are contaminating Brazil.'
'I express my solidarity to the former president, I regret his arrest without discussing the merits of the issue. This is all that the country did not need,' Kassab said in a statement.
___
Follow AP's coverage of Latin America and the Caribbean at https://apnews.com/hub/latin-america
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Bloomberg
5 minutes ago
- Bloomberg
Colombia's Biggest Cocaine Cartel to Talk Peace With Government
Colombia's biggest cocaine cartel will sit down with government negotiators as President Gustavo Petro seeks peace deals with the nation's illegal armed groups before he leaves office next year. The talks with the Gulf Clan will take place outside Colombia, Petro said Friday, in a speech near the nation's Caribbean coast.
Yahoo
33 minutes ago
- Yahoo
All eyes are on upcoming special election
U.S. Rep. Elise Stefanik, R-Schuylerville, has taken an interest in the upcoming special election for the state Assembly seat that will be vacant when Assemblyman Billy Jones, D-Chateauguay, resigns at the end of the month. 'Mark my word. Republicans will run and win the NY Assembly special election in the North Country. Voters will flip this seat,' Stefanik posted on Facebook on July 31, two days after Jones announced his pending resignation. 'Wishful thinking,' countered Lynne Boecher of Queensbury, a National Democratic Committee member, in a telephone interview Thursday. 'The majority of the voters in those counties have overwhelmingly supported Billy Jones. I'm sure that they will continue with an independent-minded voting pattern.' Jones is resigning to become vice president of strategic initiatives and workforce development for Clinton County Community College. It is generally expected that the special election will be held in conjunction with the Nov. 4 general election, in order to avoid the expense of a separate local election. Once Jones' resignation is official at the end of August, the governor must call a special election within 90 days. There will be no primary. Party chairs in the three counties will select respective nominees based on a weighted voting system. The concentrated race is expected to be spirited. 'You're looking at six weeks — maybe,' said Essex County Democratic Chairwoman Margaret Bartley. 'So that's pretty crazy if you're a candidate.' Prior to Jones' election in 2016, the local Assembly District had been consistently represented by Republicans at least since the early 1980s. In the balance of power, a Republican win would have virtually no significance in the Assembly, where Democrats outnumber Republicans 103-47. A GOP win could add momentum in Stefanik's likely run for governor in 2026. If Stefanik takes an active public role in the local Assembly special election, it also could offer a glimpse of how popular she remains in the area. In recent weeks, Stefanik has repeatedly said her priority, for now, is on boosting candidates in this year's local and county elections, and state legislative special elections. She has said she will announce a decision on the governor's race after the November general election. Late Thursday afternoon, Stefanik announced via a news release she was endorsing Malone Mayor Andrea Dumas for the 115th Assembly District seat. As of press time Thursday night, there were no candidates besides Michael Cashman who officially announced they were running for the seat. In June, Stefanik established Save New York, a state political action committee to support Republican candidates in local, county and state races. In June and the first nine days of July, its initial weeks of operation, the PAC raised $260,214, with contributions ranging from a few cents to $5,000 each, coming from 34 states and the District of Columbia, according to a semi-annual finance report filed July 15 with the state Board of Elections. Democrats have a slight enrollment advantage in the 115th District, with 34.1% of active enrollment, as of Feb. 20, the most recent statistics available from the state Board of Elections. There are 1,152 more active enrolled Democrats than Republicans. Republicans comprise 32.8% of active enrollment and independents 26.1%, with the rest enrolled in other political parties. Jones first won election to an open seat in 2016, receiving 52.7% of the vote. In his only other contested election, he received 64.9% of the vote in 2022. He ran unopposed for reelection in 2018, 2020 and 2024. Jones, a former corrections officer, drew heavily from correctional officers, which more commonly vote Republican, said former U. S. Rep. Bill Owens, D-Plattsburgh. Republicans are prepared to tie the Democratic candidate with Gov. Kathy Hochul, who remains controversial in the region after a wild cat correctional officer's strike earlier this year. 'I am confident this race will come down to the people of the North Country being given a choice between someone who shares their values or a rubber stamp for the worst Governor in America,' said Vince Casale, a Republican strategist from Cooperstown. Owens said tariffs and the drop in Canadian tourism may be prominent in the race. 'I think because you can tie it to the local economy that's something you can do, as long as you keep it in the local context,' he said. Jones has generally been considered a moderate, as was Republican Janet Duprey of Clinton County, his predecessor for a decade. Owens said he would not be surprised if state political parties play an active role in the race. 'It's fairly certain that the state parties will play in the game if the candidates are considered viable,' he said. 'I'm expecting they will get in the game.'
New York Post
34 minutes ago
- New York Post
Trump is right: US census is a disgrace — but rushing a new one is worse
President Donald Trump wants a new census. If by this he means a snap-census before the scheduled 2030 survey, he's demanding that the federal government undertake a gargantuan task with minimal planning and no discernible source of funding. In statistical terms, it'd be like launching D-Day with a month's lead time. If the White Queen believes six impossible things before breakfast, that the Census Bureau could pull this off would qualify as one of them. The agency couldn't even competently conduct the last, regularly scheduled census in 2020. Given that conducting the census is a core function of the federal government — indeed, mandated by the Constitution — it is outrageous that the last survey missed so badly. It undercounted Florida and other red states (as well as Illinois) and overcounted New York and a number of blue states (plus, Ohio and Utah). Because the apportionment of congressional seats depends on population as determined by the census, these were highly consequential errors that can't be allowed to happen again. There's no legal mechanism for fixing it, though. We just have to do better in 2030. Trump is also, understandably, chagrined that illegal immigrants are included in the census and declares that, going forward, they 'WILL NOT BE COUNTED.' Here he's going to run smack into the relevant legal texts. Article I Section 2 of the Constitution refers to 'the Whole Number of free Persons,' while the 14th Amendment includes 'the whole number of persons in each State.' In similar fashion, the US code calls for a 'tabulation of total population by States.' So it's hard to see how illegal immigrants can be excluded from the count. As it happens, illegal migrants — who make up just a small proportion of America's total immigrant population — don't seem to have much of an effect on the partisan breakdown of congressional seats one way or the other. Although the highest numbers of them live in blue California, they are spread around the country, with large numbers in Texas and Florida as well. A change that Trump wanted in the 2020 census was the inclusion, once again, of a citizenship question — highly relevant information that it's entirely appropriate to ask. There was a long period from the 19th century through 1950 when the census survey asked about citizenship. Later, it was relegated to the so-called 'long form.' Finally the long form itself was axed after 2000 — and today it's considered a scandal to even think about reviving it. Trump's proposal to ask the question on the 2020 census encountered stiff resistance and the Supreme Court squashed it. But in the big picture, non-citizens who are here legally do have a significant impact on congressional apportionment. Recent research by the Center for Immigration Studies found that all immigrants (naturalized citizens as well as all other immigrant categories) shifted 14 congressional seats to Democratic states on net in 2020. Non-citizens also distort the composition of congressional districts. The CIS study found the same number of citizens in the 13 congressional districts with the highest share of non-citizens as in the nine districts with the lowest share of non-citizens. In other words, the citizens in those nine low-immigration districts get four fewer representatives than did the citizens in the 13 high-immigration districts. It's one man, one vote — with an asterisk. To take an example from Texas, the Democratic-held 33rd district, where non-citizens are nearly 30% of the population, has 208,000 fewer voting-age citizens than the Texas 21st district. That means the citizens of the 33rd district have marginally more clout and representation, thanks to a population tilted toward those who can't vote. Ultimately, the way to diminish these effects is to reduce the level of immigration. Early indications are showing a large exodus of illegal immigrants since Trump's election, and that the United States will have net negative migration this year for the first time in a half-century. If Trump wants to fully capture the changes he's effecting in immigration policy, he should indeed want a new census — but let's wait until 2030. Twitter: @RichLowry
