Is the conflict in Sudan entering a decisive phase?
The Sudanese army has achieved major gains in Khartoum, but fighters with the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces say they're strengthening their positions in Darfur.
Two years of fighting has caused the world's worst humanitarian crisis.
Is the conflict in Sudan at a turning point?
Presenter: Sami Zeidan
Guests:
Dallia Abdelmoniem – political commentator and civil society activist from Khartoum
Alan Boswell – Horn of Africa director at the International Crisis Group
Elbashir Idris – independent analyst who monitors human rights violations in Sudan
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Al Jazeera
7 days ago
- Al Jazeera
‘Corpses rotting in the Nile' as cholera tears through Sudan
After Sudan's army recaptured the national capital region of Khartoum in March, tens of thousands of people returned to check on their homes and reunite with loved ones. The joy of returning was tempered by the shock of seeing the damage caused during nearly two years under the control of the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), a paramilitary group that has been fighting the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF), recognised by many Sudanese and the UN as the de facto authority in Sudan, since April 2023. In a region whose hospitals and food and medicine stores had been systematically plundered by the RSF, many returnees started falling sick. Many of the returnees had settled in Omdurman, one of the national capital's three cities, where living conditions were slightly better than in the other cities. This is because several localities in Omdurman never came under the RSF's control, insulating it from heavy clashes, pillaging, and looting. Omdurman quickly became overcrowded, with 'thousands of people [returning] from Egypt alone', according to Dr Dirar Abeer, a member of Khartoum's Emergency Response Rooms, neighbourhood committees spearheading relief efforts across the country. The crowding, Dr Abeer said, meant an accelerated spread of cholera, an acute, highly contagious diarrhoeal infection that is endemic to Sudan and can be fatal if not treated. 'In areas south of the Nile in Omdurman, there are a lot of corpses rotting next to [or in] the Nile, and this has [partially] caused the spread of infection,' said Badawi, a volunteer in Omdurman who declined to give his full name due to the sensitivity of speaking in a warzone. Cholera has become an epidemic in Sudan, spreading in several states, including White Nile and Gadarif, and killing hundreds in the last two weeks. As in Khartoum, the spread was fuelled by overcrowding and a lack of essential services in these regions. The waterborne disease could be stopped with basic sanitation and provisions, said Fazli Kostan, the project coordinator for Doctors Without Borders, known by its French initials MSF. 'But that's not really possible right now,' he told Al Jazeera, referring to a lack of electricity to pump water since Omdurman's electricity grids went down on May 14. The RSF had fired a barrage of suicide drones that day, which took out major power stations and grids, consequently shutting down water treatment plants and causing a sharp rise in cases. Deprived of safe drinking and bathing water, people have resorted to drinking contaminated water from the Nile, as well as scooping up water from the ground after it rains, Badawi said. The SAF-backed Ministry of Health (MoH) reported a huge surge in daily cholera cases in the national capital region between May 15 and May 25, with at least 172 people dying between May 20 and May 27. The UN says daily cases spiked from 90 to more than 815 in the latter half of May. Those who contract the disease often rush to the nearest hospital, further straining an already overwhelmed and ill-equipped health sector. However, local volunteers said many people do not experience life-threatening symptoms and that they would be better off staying at home and isolating themselves. The overcrowding at hospitals has further exacerbated the spread of the disease and overstrained the already collapsing health sector, they explained. 'We do not have enough medication or medical tools, and the rate of people coming to the hospitals is far more than we can handle,' said Kareem al-Noor, a medic at al-Nao hospital in Omdurman. 'The [remaining hospitals] are at full capacity and people are also waiting for treatment, crowded on the streets,' al-Noor added. Dr Abeer feels the SAF-backed health authorities are not doing enough to tackle the epidemic. While she acknowledged that the health sector was largely destroyed by the RSF, she believes the current health authorities could be doing more. Al Jazeera submitted written questions to Dr Montasser Towarra, the MoH spokesperson, asking him what measures the ministry is undertaking to help volunteers and to provide basic provisions. He had not answered by the time of publication. Sudan is also suffering an acute hunger crisis. Since the civil war, millions of Sudanese have struggled to feed their families due to spoiled harvests, the systematic looting of markets and food aid and the destruction of homes and livelihoods. According to the UN, about 25 million people – more than half the population – currently suffer extreme food shortages. Hunger can weaken bodies and lead to an acute increase in contagious diseases, according to Alex De Waal, an expert on Sudan and famine. He noted that civilians – especially children – have always been more likely to die from diseases if they are also on the brink of starvation. 'We could see an excess of hundreds of thousands of deaths [due to these factors] over the next year,' warned De Waal. The UN has also warned that up to one million children could die from cholera unless the spread is thwarted quickly. The only way to thwart the health crisis is to repair basic provisions such as electricity and sewage systems to improve sanitation, said De Waal. However, he believes that repairing essential services is not a priority for the army, which remains the de facto authority. Al Jazeera sent written questions to SAF spokesperson, Nabil Abdullah, to ask if the army is planning on repairing vital resources such as bombed electricity grids. Abdullah said, 'These questions are not for the army, but for the Ministry of Health.' Tawarra from the MoH also did not respond to these questions. De Waal suspects the army is prioritising combat operations against the RSF. 'My sense is the army is too stretched financially and organisationally to prioritise anything other than fighting the war,' he told Al Jazeera.
Al Jazeera
29-05-2025
- Al Jazeera
Sudan reports 70 cholera deaths in Khartoum in two days
A cholera outbreak in Sudan's Khartoum has killed at least 70 people in two days, local health authorities said. The health ministry in Khartoum state reported on Thursday 942 new infections and 25 deaths the previous day, following 1,177 cases and 45 deaths the day before. The outbreak is centred around the capital city, Khartoum, which has been devastated by more than two years of war between the Sudanese army and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF). The city lost access to water and electricity earlier this month following drone attacks blamed on the RSF. The army-backed government announced last week that it had dislodged RSF fighters from their last bases in Khartoum State, two months after retaking the heart of the capital from the paramilitaries. The city remains devastated with health and sanitation infrastructure barely functioning. According to the federal health ministry, 172 people died of cholera in the week to Tuesday – 90 percent of them in Khartoum state alone. Aid workers say the scale of the outbreak is being worsened by the near-total collapse of health services, with about 90 percent of hospitals in key war zones no longer operational. 'Sudan is on the brink of a full-scale public health disaster,' said Eatizaz Yousif, Sudan country director for the International Rescue Committee. 'The combination of conflict, displacement, destroyed infrastructure, and lack of clean water is fuelling the resurgence of cholera and other deadly diseases,' she told AFP. Since August 2024, Sudan has reported more than 65,000 suspected cholera cases and at least 1,700 deaths across 12 of its 18 states. Khartoum alone has seen 7,700 cases and 185 deaths, including more than 1,000 infections in children under five. The spread of disease is expected to worsen with the upcoming rainy season, which is likely to further restrict humanitarian access. Aid groups warn that unless urgent action is taken, the death toll could soar. According to the United Nations children's agency UNICEF, more than one million children are at risk in cholera-affected areas of Khartoum. 'We are racing against time … to provide basic healthcare, clean water and good nutrition,' said Sheldon Yett, UNICEF's representative in Sudan. 'Each day, more children are exposed to this double threat of cholera and malnutrition.' The war, now in its third year, has killed tens of thousands of people, displaced 13 million and created the world's largest displacement and hunger crisis.
Al Jazeera
21-05-2025
- Al Jazeera
South Sudan on edge as Sudan's war threatens vital oil industry
South Sudan relies on oil for more than 90 percent of its government revenues, and the country depends entirely on Sudan to export the precious resource. But this month, Sudan's army-backed government said it was preparing to shut down the facilities that its southern neighbour uses to export its oil, according to an official government letter seen by Al Jazeera. That decision could collapse South Sudan's economy and drag it directly into Sudan's intractable civil war between the army and paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF), experts warned. The announcement was made on May 9 after the RSF launched suicide drones for six consecutive days at Port Sudan, the army's wartime capital on the strategic Red Sea coast. The strikes destroyed a fuel depot and damaged electricity grids, shattering the sense of security in the city, which lies far from the country's front lines. Sudan's army claims the damage now hampers it from exporting South Sudan's oil. 'The announcement read like a desperate plea [to South Sudan] for help to stop these [RSF] attacks,' said Alan Boswell, an expert on the Horn of Africa with the International Crisis Group. 'But I think doing so overestimates the leverage that South Sudan has … over the RSF,' he added. Since South Sudan gained independence from Sudan in 2011, the former has relied on the latter to export its oil via Port Sudan. In return, Sudan has collected fees from Juba as part of their 2005 peace agreement, which ended the 22-year north-south civil war and ultimately led to the secession of South Sudan from Sudan. When Sudan erupted into another civil war between the army and RSF in 2023, the former continued collecting the fees from Juba. '[Sudan and South Sudan] are tied at the hip financially due to the oil export infrastructure,' Boswell told Al Jazeera. Local media have recently reported that high-level officials from South Sudan and Sudan are engaged in talks to avert a shutdown of oil exports. Al Jazeera sent written questions to Port Sudan's energy and petroleum minister, Mohieddein Naiem Mohamed, asking if the army is negotiating higher rent fees from South Sudan before resuming oil exports, which some experts suspected to be a likely scenario. Naiem Mohamed did not respond before publication. According to the International Crisis Group, Juba also pays off the RSF to not damage oil pipelines that run through territory under its control. In addition, South Sudan has allowed the RSF to operate in villages along the Sudan-South Sudan border. The RSF has increased its presence along the sprawling, porous border after forming a strategic alliance with the Sudan People's Liberation Movement – North (SPLM-N) in February. The SPLM-N fought alongside secessionist forces against Sudan's army. It controls swaths of territory in Sudan's South Kordofan and Blue Nile regions and has historically close ties with Juba. South Sudan's relationship with the SPLM-N and RSF has increasingly frustrated Sudan's army, said Edmund Yakani, a South Sudanese civil society leader and commentator. '[Sudan's army] is suspicious that Juba is helping RSF in its military capability and political space to manoeuvre its struggle against Sudan's army,' Yakani told Al Jazeera. According to a report by the International Crisis Group from 2021, about 60 percent of South Sudan's oil profits go to the multinational companies producing the oil. The report explained that most of the remaining 40 percent goes to paying off outstanding loans and to South Sudan's ruling elites in the bloated security sector and bureaucracy. South Sudan's president, Salva Kiir, will likely not be able to keep his patronage network together without a quick resumption in oil revenue. His fragile government – a coalition of longtime loyalists and coopted opponents – could collapse like a house of cards, experts warned. Al Jazeera emailed written questions to South Sudan's Ministry of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation to ask if the country has any contingency plan in case oil exports stop indefinitely. The ministry did not respond before publication. Experts warned that South Sudan has no alternative to oil. Security personnel and civil servants are already owed months of back pay, and they may turn against Kiir – and each other – if they have no incentive to uphold the fragile peace agreement that ended South Sudan's own five-year civil war in 2018. 'Kiir is on extremely fragile footing, and there is no backup plan for when the oil runs out,' said Matthew Benson, a scholar on Sudan and South Sudan at the London School of Economics. A halt in oil revenue would also drive up inflation, exacerbating the daily struggles of millions of civilians. The World Food Programme estimated that about 60 percent of the population is experiencing acute food shortages while the World Bank found that nearly 80 percent live below the poverty line. The hardship and pervasive corruption have given way to a predatory economy in which armed groups erect checkpoints to shake down civilians for bribes and taxes. Civilians will likely be unable to cough up any more money if the oil revenue dries up. 'I'm not sure people can be squeezed more than they already are,' Benson said. Some commentators and activists also fear that Sudan's army is deliberately turning off the oil to force South Sudan to cut off all contact with the RSF and SPLM-N. This speculation is fuelling some resentment among civilians in South Sudan, according to Yakani. Meanwhile, some supporters of Sudan's army argued that South Sudan should not benefit from oil as long as it provides any degree of support to the RSF, which they view as a militia waging a rebellion against the state. Both the RSF and army have recruited South Sudanese mercenaries to fight on their behalf, Al Jazeera previously reported. 'What Port Sudan [the army] wants is for Juba to absolutely distance itself from aiding the RSF in any way, and that is the complication that the government of [Kiir] is in now,' Yakani told Al Jazeera. 'The majority of citizens of South Sudan – including myself – believe that South Sudan is becoming a land of proxy wars for Sudan's warring parties and their [regional] allies,' he added. Sudan's army also believes that South Sudan's government is relying increasingly on the RSF's regional backers to buttress its own security. Sudan's army leaders were particularly spooked when Uganda, which it views as supporting the RSF, deployed troops to prop up Kiir in March, according to Boswell. In addition, Sudan's army has repeatedly accused the United Arab Emirates of arming the RSF. The UAE has repeatedly denied these allegations, which United Nations experts and Amnesty International have also made. 'The UAE has already made absolutely clear that it is not providing any support or supplies to either of two belligerent warring parties in Sudan,' the UAE's Ministry of Foreign Affairs previously told Al Jazeera in an email. Despite tensions between Sudan's army and the UAE, analysts said Juba may request a large loan from the UAE to keep its patronage intact if Sudan's army does not promptly resume oil exports. '[Sudan's army] has been worrying and watching closely over whether the UAE might loan South Sudan a significant amount of money,' Boswell said. 'I think a massive UAE loan to South Sudan would be … a red line for Sudan's army', he added.
