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Arab News
2 hours ago
- Politics
- Arab News
Somalia donors losing faith as Al-Shabab surges
NAIROBI: Despite billions of dollars in international support, Somalia's army has melted in the face of a months-long offensive by the Al-Qaeda-linked Al-Shabab insurgency, and donors are running out of patience. Using hundreds of fighters and a vehicle packed with explosives for a suicide attack, Al-Shabab retook the town of Moqokori on July 7, the latest in a wave of defeats this year for the government. It has given them a strategic geographical position to launch attacks into the Hiiraan region, but it was also a powerful symbolic victory over a local clan militia that had been the government's 'best fighting force' against Al-Shabab, according to Omar Mahmood of the International Crisis Group. Somalia's government has been battling the Islamist militant group since the mid-2000s and its fortunes have waxed and waned, but now faces a perfect storm of declining international support, a demoralized army and political infighting. The government relied on local militias, known as 'Macwiisley,' for a successful campaign in 2022-23, taking some 200 towns and villages from Al-Shabab. But the insurgents' counter-offensive this year has seen them regain some 90 percent of their lost territory, estimates Rashid Abdi of Sahan Research, a think tank. Towns that were supposed models of stabilization, like Masaajid Cali Gaduud and Adan Yabal, have fallen. Three bridges along the Shebelle River, crucial to military supply lines, have been destroyed. 'The whole stretch from the north-west to the south-west of Mogadishu is now controlled largely by Al-Shabab,' Abdi told AFP. The Macwiisley campaign collapsed, he said, because the government of President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, known as HSM, 'was extremely inept at working with the clans,' empowering some and not others based on political favoritism rather than military needs. 'The mobilization went well when the president came from Mogadishu to start the first phase of the offensive (in 2022). Everybody was heavily involved in the fighting... assisting the national army,' Mohamed Hassan, a local militia member in Hiiraan, told AFP. 'It's no longer the same because the leadership are no longer involved and there seems to be disorganization in how the community militias are mobilized,' he added. The Somali National Army has done little to stem the insurgents, unsurprising for a force 'still in development mode while trying to fight a war at the same time,' said Mahmood, the analyst. Its most effective arm, the US-trained 'Danab' commando unit, is better at killing militants than holding territory, and has suffered demoralizing losses to its officer corps, added Abdi. 'We are beginning to see an army that is not just dysfunctional, but losing the will to actually fight,' he said. The problems stem from the wider chaos of Somali politics, in which a kaleidoscope of clan demands have never resolved into anything like a national consensus. The government has vowed a renewed military push, but President Mohamud's focus has been on holding the country's first-ever one-man, one-vote election next year. That 'will not happen,' said a Western diplomat, speaking on condition of anonymity. Even in Mogadishu, where security is strongest, 'any polling station would get bombed,' he said. 'It's unfortunate that attention was shifted toward insignificant political-related matters which do not help security instead of focusing on strengthening the armed forces,' ex-president Sharif Sheikh Ahmed recently told reporters. Al-Shabab has not launched a full assault on the capital, but has repeatedly demonstrated its presence. Pot-shots targeting the airport are at an all-time high, said the diplomat, and Mohamud narrowly survived an attack on his convoy outside the presidential palace in March. The group also controls much of the economy. 'It out-taxes the state. Its business tentacles spread everywhere,' said Abdi. 'It is one of the wealthiest insurgencies in Africa.' Meanwhile, the government's foreign backers are losing patience. The European Union and United States have poured well over $7 billion into Somali security — primarily various African Union-led missions — since 2007, according to the EU Institute for Security Studies. The previous AU mission ended in December, but had to be immediately replaced with a new one — with the quip-generating acronym AUSSOM — because Somali forces were still not ready to take over. 'There's a huge amount of donor fatigue. People are asking: 'What have we bought for the last 10 years?' Seeing the army run away and having (to create) AUSSOM was really hard for people,' said the diplomat. Donors, especially Washington, are reluctant to keep funding the AU mission. Mahmood estimates it will scrabble together two-thirds of its funding for 2025: 'Enough to keep things going... but there's clearly a chronic shortfall.' Somalia has struck deals with newer partners like the United Arab Emirates, Qatar and Egypt. Turkiye has deployed about 500 troops, backed by drones, to reinforce security in Mogadishu. But they are interested in protecting investments such as a mooted Turkish spaceport, said Mahmood, rather than leading the fight against Al-Shabab. 'We are staring at a very grim situation,' said Abdi.
Khaberni
2 days ago
- Politics
- Khaberni
Israel Attacks Hodeidah Port and Katz Threatens the Houthis
Khaberni -The Israeli military announced that it attacked facilities inside the port of Hodeidah in western Yemen on Monday, claiming to prevent the rehabilitation of infrastructure for the Houthis. The army said in a statement that it targeted fuel tanks and engineering vehicles that were working on the restoration of infrastructure in the port of Hodeidah. It added that it targeted ships and boats used by the Houthis for military purposes, according to its claim. In turn, Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz said that Israel "is strongly working to prevent an attempt to rehabilitate the infrastructure of the Houthis in Yemen." He continued, threatening that the fate of Yemen is the fate of Iran, promising the Houthis would pay a "heavy price for launching missiles at Israel." The Times of Israel quoted military officials as saying the strike was carried out using a drone, not fighter jets. In turn, media outlets affiliated with the Houthis confirmed that a series of Israeli airstrikes targeted the port of Hodeidah in the country. Last Friday, the Houthis attacked Ben Gurion Airport in Tel Aviv with a hypersonic ballistic missile named "Palestine 2," while the Israeli military confirmed its interception at the time. Since the start of the genocidal war that Israel has committed in the Gaza Strip, the Houthis under the slogan "Support Gaza" have launched dozens of missile attacks on Israel, which in turn has launched dozens of attacks on locations in Hodeidah and Sanaa. The absence of a target bank Regarding the latest Israeli threat against the Houthis, the senior analyst for Yemen at the International Crisis Group, Ahmed Nagi, said that there are differences between Israel's war against the Houthis and its war against Iran. Nagi clarified in a statement to Al Jazeera Net that the obstacle facing Israel in Yemen is the absence of a target bank due to the scarcity of intelligence information about the military capabilities of the Houthis, therefore current Israeli strikes are focused on large facilities such as ports, airports, and power stations to create a scene of destruction, while strikes against actual military targets have not been carried out. He pointed out that the Houthis rely on ambiguity in their military structure, which complicates tracking of leadership, in addition to their use of mobile missile platforms that are easily replaced if targeted, reducing the significance of any Israeli military operations against these targets. الوسوم :
New York Times
2 days ago
- Business
- New York Times
Venezuela's Authoritarian Government Has a New Target: Economists
Venezuela's autocratic president, Nicolás Maduro, has crushed the opposition, jailed judges and politicians, and even arrested American citizens to use as leverage in international negotiations. Now, he is going after a profession that has not typically been considered risky in Venezuela: economists. Experts say the government is seeking to control the narrative around Venezuela's deepening financial crisis by targeting independent experts sharing data about the country's cratering economy. Roughly two dozen economists and others involved in publishing financial data have been detained in the past two months, according to a human rights group and the Venezuelan government. 'It's essentially a shoot-the-messenger policy,' said Phil Gunson, an analyst with the International Crisis Group who has lived in Venezuela for more than two decades. The Central Bank of Venezuela for years has not released reliable data on key indicators like inflation, leaving economists to fill the gaps with independent estimates. Want all of The Times? Subscribe.
Kuwait Times
3 days ago
- Politics
- Kuwait Times
Pullout exposes chinks in Sharaa's armor
Zionists claim ceasefire in Syria 'obtained by force' and 'not by demands, not by pleas' BEIRUT: Under Zionist bombardment and diplomatic pressure, Ahmed Al-Sharaa pulled troops from Syria's Druze heartland — a move that exposes the interim leader's weakness just as he sought to assert control. Since seizing office in December after ousting longtime autocrat Bashar Al-Assad, Sharaa has worked to recast himself from jihadist to statesman, even earning praise from US President Donald Trump as a 'tough guy'. But in the early hours of Thursday, he was forced to announce the withdrawal of troops from the Druze-majority city of Sweida, framing it as an effort to avoid confrontation with Zionist entity and prevent further destabilization in a country still reeling from 14 years of war. In his Thursday speech, Sharaa praised the 'effective intervention of American, Arab and Turkish mediation, which saved the region from an unknown fate'. That followed Zionist entity air strikes targeting the Syrian military headquarters and the vicinity of the presidential palace in Damascus. It also came amid diplomatic pressure from the United States. Gamal Mansur, a comparative politics researcher specializing in Syrian and Zionist entity studies at the University of Toronto, said he believed 'the withdrawal was imposed on the authorities due to the imbalance of power caused by Zionist entity's presence'. Syria 'was forced to retreat because its position in Sweida was not that strong and it was unable to retain the land in Sweida without a high price that would force a second Zionist entity intervention', he said. Sharaa admitted on Thursday that his options to avoid 'open war' with Zionist entity were limited. Zionist entity Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said the ceasefire in Syria was 'obtained by force' and 'not by demands, not by pleas'. A senior Western diplomat, who requested anonymity due to the sensitivity of the topic, told AFP that Sharaa 'is very aware of the situation that he is in and he is realistic'. 'He knows Syria is at a weak point and that the best option is to reach a deal with the Zionists.' Heiko Wimmen, project director for Iraq, Syria and Lebanon at International Crisis Group, said Sharaa's pullback showed he was 'making a further step towards accepting that Zionist entity basically projects power onto the doorstep of Damascus'. Since leading the overthrow of Assad, Sharaa has repeatedly said his country does not seek conflicts with its neighbors. Damascus has acknowledged holding indirect talks to reduce tensions with Zionist entity, which has occupied Syria's Golan Heights since 1967. The Zionist entity army deployed troops into the UN-patrolled zone on the Golan after the fall of Assad and launched hundreds of bombing raids. Mansur believes the Sweida events 'will place Zionist entity in a better position and with stronger negotiating terms'. The Western diplomat said that while full normalization was unlikely, Zionist entity could still reach a favorable security agreement with Syria. Sharaa and his government have been pushing for unified control of the country from Damascus, with the various armed factions, often tied to ethnic or religious identities, merged into the state's armed forces. That goal was undermined by the events in Sweida, which remains outside Damascus' direct control, and major sectarian clashes like the coastal massacres in March, during which more than 1,700 mostly Alawite civilians were killed. Sharaa's ability to control armed factions loyal to him, which include extremist groups and foreign jihadists, was heavily questioned following those incidents. Washington had previously demanded that 'foreign terrorists' leave Syria. These developments reveal 'the weakness of Sharaa's authority', Mansur said, adding the Syrian leader needed to consolidate his authority and secure control over the state's security apparatus. Additionally, the Kurds in northeastern Syria are still demanding a decentralized system despite repeated rejections by Damascus. Bedran Ciya Kurd, a senior official in the autonomous administration, said on Thursday that Damascus should 'review' its attitude towards minorities. Syria's Kurds may be in a stronger position after the Sweida clashes, according to Wimmen, who said there was now a 'big question mark' over the idea of full integration with Damascus. The Kurds now have 'many reasons to be very careful about any form of integration', he said. — AFP
New Indian Express
4 days ago
- Politics
- New Indian Express
Deadly violence in Syria could reshape domestic and regional alliances
Violence is only part of the problem. Syria's minority groups only have been given what many see as token representation in the interim government, according to Bassam Alahmad, executive director of Syrians for Truth and Justice, a civil society organization. 'It's a transitional period. We should have a dialogue, and they (the minorities) should feel that they're a real part of the state,' Alahmad said. Instead, with the incursion into Sweida, the new authorities have sent a message that they would use military force to 'control every part of Syria,' he said. 'Bashar Assad tried this way,' and it failed, he added. On the other hand, supporters of the new government fear that its decision to back down in Sweida could signal to other minorities that it's OK to demand their own autonomous regions, which would fragment and weaken the country. If Damascus cedes security control of Sweida to the Druze, 'of course everyone else is going to demand the same thing,' said Abdel Hakim al-Masri, a former official in the Turkish-backed regional government in Syria's northwest before Assad's fall. 'This is what we are afraid of,' he said. A rapprochement with Israel may be derailed Before this week's flare-up between Israel and Syria, and despite a long history of suspicion between the two countries, the Trump administration had been pushing their leaders to post-Assad to work toward normalizing relations – meaning that Syria would formally recognize Israel and establish diplomatic relations, or at least enter into some limited agreement on security matters. Syrian officials have acknowledged holding indirect talks with Israel, but defusing decades of tension was never going to be easy. After Assad's fall, Israeli forces seized control of a U.N.-patrolled buffer zone in Syria and carried out airstrikes on military sites in what Israeli officials said was a move to create a demilitarized zone south of Damascus. Dareen Khalifa, a senior adviser at the International Crisis Group, said she believes Israel could have gotten the same result through negotiations. But now it's unlikely Syria will be willing to continue down the path of reconciliation with Israel, at least in the short term, she said. 'I don't know how the Israelis could expect to drop bombs on Damascus and still have some kind of normal dialogue with the Syrians,' said Colin Clarke, a senior research fellow at the Soufan Center, a New York-based organization that focuses on global security challenges. 'Just like Netanyahu, al-Sharaa's got a domestic constituency that he's got to answer to.' Yet even after the events of this past week, the Trump administration still seems to have hope of keeping the talks alive. U.S. officials are 'engaging diplomatically with Israel and Syria at the highest levels, both to address the present crisis and reach a lasting agreement between two sovereign states,' says Dorothy Shea, the U.S. ambassador to the United Nations. Shea said during a U.N. Security Council emergency meeting on Thursday that 'the United States did not support recent Israeli strikes.' Syria could be drawn closer to Turkey During Syria's civil war, the U.S. was allied with Kurdish forces in the country's northeast in their fight against the Islamic State militant group. But since Assad's fall, the U.S. has begun gradually pulling its forces out of Syria and has encouraged the Kurds to integrate their forces with those of the new authorities in Damascus. To that end, the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces agreed in March to a landmark deal that would merge them with the national army. But implementation has stalled. A major sticking point has been whether the SDF would remain as a cohesive unit in the new army or be dissolved completely. Khalifa said the conflict in Sweida is 'definitely going to complicate' those talks. Not only are the Kurds mistrustful of government forces after their attacks on Alawite and Druze minorities, but now they also view them as looking weak. 'Let's be frank, the government came out of this looking defeated,' Khalifa said. It's possible that the Kurds, like the Druze, might look to Israel for support, but Turkey is unlikely to stand by idly if they do, Khalifa said. The Turkish government considers the SDF a terrorist organization because of its association with the Kurdistan Workers' Party, or PKK, which has waged a long-running insurgency in Turkey. For that reason, it has long wanted to curtail the group's influence just across its border. Israel's latest military foray in Syria could give its new leaders an incentive to draw closer to Ankara, according to Clarke. That could include pursuing a defense pact that has been discussed but not implemented. Turkish defense ministry officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity according to procedures, said that if requested, Ankara is ready to assist Syria in strengthening its defense capabilities.
