Can the island chain strategy contain China's blue-water naval ambitions?

South China Morning Post

6 hours ago

China's navy is pushing past the strategic island chains that for decades have marked defensive boundaries for the United States and its allies in the Western Pacific.
The deployment of two Chinese
aircraft carrier groups in the open waters of the Pacific Ocean since late May has underscored a critical advance in Beijing's ambitions to become a blue-water navy by 2035.
The Liaoning and Shandong have been on a routine training exercise to test their 'far-sea defences and joint operational capabilities', according to the PLA Navy. Notably, it is the first time a Chinese carrier has sailed beyond the second island chain.
What is the island chain strategy?
The strategy was proposed in 1951 by the then US secretary of state John Foster Dulles, as a way of using American-aligned island bases to contain the communist Soviet Union and China in the Western Pacific.
Taiwan – famously described in 1950 by General Douglas MacArthur as an 'unsinkable aircraft carrier' – was pivotal to the concept. While the strategy became less prominent after the Cold War, it re-emerged strongly post-1991 as a way to counter a rising Beijing.
The first island chain runs along East Asia's coastline, from the Kuril Islands through Japan, Taiwan, and the Philippines down to Borneo. This marks the Chinese mainland's near seas from the wider Pacific.
The second island chain is further east and includes the major US base at Guam. It extends through the Marianas to Palau and New Guinea.