What's Comes Next For The One Big Beautiful Bill Act

Forbes

7 hours ago

WASHINGTON, DC - JUNE 9: U.S. Senate Majority Leader Sen. John Thune (R-SD) (C) walks to the Senate floor at the U.S. Capitol Building on June 9, 2025 in Washington, DC. (Photo by) Getty Images
The clock is ticking towards July 4—the date President Trump insists he wants to sign the Republicans' big tax and budget cutting bill. The House passed its version of the 'One Big Beautiful Bill Act' (OBBBA) last month and Senate Republicans are hashing out their version now, with a vote possible at the end of the week. But the two Houses must pass the exact same legislation before it can head to Trump's desk.
OBBBA proposes tax and policy changes that could significantly impact how people and businesses plan, invest and grow—and importantly, it's considered the signature legislation of Trump's second term. In other words, it's something Republicans feel they must pass. As with any major legislation, the path forward is shaped as much by politics as by policy.
The Honorable Dave Camp, a senior policy advisor within PwC's Washington National Tax Services practice, and former Chairman of the Committee on Ways and Means, knows a little something about the process. In March 2014, the Michigan Republican introduced the Tax Reform Act of 2014, the most comprehensive tax reform proposal since the mid-1980s. Prior, he was a member of the Joint Committee on Taxation for six years, serving as Chairman in 2011 and 2013 and Vice Chairman in 2012 and 2014.
In a webinar for Forbes members last week, Camp said that Sen. Mike Crapo (R-Idaho), who chairs the current Senate Finance Committee, 'really delivered on things that he was talking about.' Camp noted that permanent tax policy was a goal of Crapo's committee and it made it into the Senate version of the bill. That's true, as the House and Senate versions of the bill would make permanent a number of the expiring tax cuts in the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) passed in 2017, during Trump's first term. It would also sweeten some of those cuts.
The beneficiaries of the most recent proposal are largely individuals. But that's because in the TCJA, many of the tax benefits for individuals were set to expire at the end of 2025, while the corporate tax breaks were largely permanent.
That doesn't mean that all business tax breaks under the TCJA were permanent. Among the provisions set to expire at the end of this year: One that allowed the owners of 'passthrough' structures like limited liability companies (LLCs) or S corporations, who pay tax on business income on their individual tax returns (instead of at the corporate level), to deduct 20% of that business-related income, thus lowering their tax rate. The House and Senate versions of the bill would make the deduction permanent (and expand it).
(You can read more about the House version of the bill here.)
The Senate version of the bill would also permanently extend and modify the depreciation deduction for businesses. (Under current law, bonus depreciation is only available through 2026, subject to phasedowns, reductions in the deduction as the years pass.) Scoring and Budget Resolutions
While these provisions are more or less what was expected in the bill, Camp noted that we don't yet have a final score on the Senate version. We do have a score on the House version—The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimated it would increase the federal deficit by $2.8 trillion over the next decade.
The lack of scoring on the Senate side is largely because the bill is still being finalized—the Senate hasn't passed a version yet and the Parliamentarian is still reviewing it. That score will make a difference, as Camp stressed that revenue scores often drive policy.
Dean Zerbe, National Managing Director of alliantgroup, who served as senior counsel and tax counsel to the U.S. Senate Committee on Finance from 2001 to 2008, under then-Chairman Charles Grassley (R-Iowa), also participated in the webinar. He noted the importance of scoring—the overall fiscal impact of the bill. That is a huge driver, he says. You can be a fan of part of the bill, he explains, but still not be able to push it forward without considering the expense. 'I love the shoes, love the purse, love the hat, Senator,' Zerbe deadpanned, "but tell me how we are paying for this.'
Scoring is typically performed by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) for spending and the Joint Committee on Taxation (JCT) for revenue—both are nonpartisan and work to figure the potential changes to the budget as a result of spending and revenues that result from a particular bill. Zerbe joked that it's "a combination of both a dartboard and a magic eight ball.'
That's when House and Senate members could look to revenue raisers, for example—items in the bill that can offset spending and tax cuts. There aren't very many in the Senate version—items like a tax on carried interest or stock buybacks that had been mentioned in earlier whispers are noticeably absent in the bill.
Complicating the process, Camp noted, is that the Senate and House are working under different budget resolutions, which is out of the ordinary for big 'reconciliation' bills like this one. Typically, he explained, when it comes to a reconciliation bill, there's one concurrent budget resolution. A concurrent budget resolution is a non-binding agreement between the House and Senate that sets the tone for spending and revenue levels. Hashing that out in advance can help avoid some of the potential roadblocks and conflicts later. It's a common step—we saw a concurrent budget resolution before other significant reconciliation bills like the TCJA and the Democrats' American Rescue Plan Act of 2021. Reconciliation and The Byrd Rule
So what are reconciliation bills? Reconciliation is used in the Senate when one party has the majority (more than 50 votes, as here) but not a filibuster-proof majority (60 votes). The process can be complicated, but generally, under reconciliation, the goal is to combine spending and revenue provisions into a single bill.
Reconciliation bills are subject to special rules in the Senate. First, debate is limited to 20 hours, which can help a reconciliation bill get to a vote quickly. More importantly, the bill cannot be filibustered—the 60 votes necessary to stop a filibuster are not required.
Thanks to the Byrd Rule, named after the late Senator Robert Byrd (D-WV), there are limits to reconciliation. For example, under the Byrd Rule, you can't tack on policy changes that are unrelated to the budget or have only 'incidental' effects on the budget. Also notable, any bill under reconciliation cannot increase the deficit beyond the fiscal years covered—that's usually limited to 10 years (and why tax cuts rarely last forever). Key Drivers In the Bill
Sorting out some of the differences between the House and Senate plans can be tricky, but Camp said he believes the Senate also has to 'find a way to negotiate with itself.' That's key because Senators can release amendments on the floor, pushing the process out even further if they don't agree on key points (that can't happen in the House since bills are typically not amendable in the House once they hit the floor unless the House Rules Committee agrees). That said, Camp expects a big push to get to a final bill that will have enough votes to pass.
Zerbe agreed, noting, 'This bill is critical to this administration.'
Camp noted that historically, 'The rule of thumb is the House has to accept what the Senate can pass,' but that the thin margins in the House make that tenuous. The bill passed in the House with a squeaky close 215-214 vote. That makes issues like the state and local tax (SALT) deduction paramount—a few members of the House from high-tax states have threatened to derail the bill if the cap (currently sitting at $10,000) doesn't go higher. The Senate doesn't have any Republican members who feel pressure to raise the cap—which is why their version kept it as $10,000. While that's largely thought of as a placeholder during negotiations, it shows that the House won't necessarily just accept a version of the bill from the Senate.
As for any surprises? Camp noted that the Senate leaning in heavily on Medicaid reforms was a surprise—especially considering the more modest changes proposed in the House. The Senate also struck a more business-friendly tone and addressed some of the international provisions that the House skipped over.
What wasn't a surprise: Both versions included Trump's campaign promises on items like no tax on tips and no tax on overtime (Zerbe noted that these provisions were temporary, unlike those individual TCJA provisions which were made permanent). Next Steps
The next step in the process is the Parliamentarian review—which has been lengthy, as expected with a bill of this size. The Parliamentarian advises on procedural matters and guides precedent. The job, which is deliberately nonpartisan, was created to navigate the complex rules and procedures of the Senate, especially as they apply to the budget reconciliation process.
The Parliamentarian's job isn't always popular. If a provision is flagged as a result of the review, it has to be removed from the bill if the bill is to proceed under reconciliation. Despite the politics, both Camp and Zerbe expect the Parliamentarian's decisions to be respected.
(You can see what's in and what's out as a result of the 'Byrd bath' here.)
When do we expect to hear the final word on the Senate version? That's still up in the air. But Zerbe said to keep your eyes and ears open on Thursday (June 26)—that's the day that follows the Senate caucus lunches (those happen on Tuesday and Wednesday) where they will taking the temperature of members. If that's favorable, the bill could move to the floor on Thursday.
But if it doesn't, is that the end of the bill? Not by a long shot. Camp said at the end of the day, the question is 'Does the President's agenda move forward or does it not move forward?' That, he said, will weigh heavily on a lot of the members. 'They're not done yet,' he said, adding, 'Small tweaks make kind of a big difference at this stage of the game."
(The replay of the webinar is available for members here.) Forbes Watch Taxes In The Political Crosshairs: How To Prepare For One Big Beautiful Bill By Forbes Membership Forbes As The Byrd Bath Continues, Here's A Look At What Will Likely Be Out Of The One Big Beautiful Bill (Updated) By Kelly Phillips Erb Forbes A Guide To The Tax Cuts In (And Out) Of Trump's 'Big, Beautiful Bill' By Kelly Phillips Erb Forbes This Woman Could Block Some Controversial Parts Of Trump's Big Bill By Kelly Phillips Erb