Hurricane Erin path shifts, prompts new warnings as NHC tracks 2 other Atlantic systems
As of the NHC's 11 a.m. advisory, the center of Erin was located about 200 miles north-northwest of San Juan, Puerto Rico and 240 miles east of Grand Turk Island moving west-northwest at 13 mph with maximum sustained winds of 125 mph, which makes it a Category 3 hurricane.
'This general motion is expected today, followed by a gradual turn to the north on Monday and Tuesday,' said NHC senior hurricane specialist Richard Pasch. 'On the forecast track, the core of Erin is expected to pass to the east of the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas tonight and Monday.'
The path shifted more to the south and west than previous projections.
The government of the Bahamas issued a tropical storm warning for the Turks and Caicos and a tropical storm watch for the southeast Bahamas. The NHC noted interests in the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico and central Bahamas should monitor the progress of Erin, while its long-term path could mean outer band winds might affect the Carolina and mid-Atlantic coast of the U.S.
The storm became the season's first hurricane at 11 a.m. Friday, with 75 mph winds, but grew to a 'catastrophic' Category 5 hurricane in just one day, undergoing rapid intensification that had sustained winds of up to 160 mph. It began to lose intensity late Saturday after pushing just north of the northern Leeward Islands.
'This slight decrease in intensity is probably due to an eyewall replacement in the inner core, as reported by the Hurricane Hunters, and is likely a temporary short-term fluctuation,' Pasch said. 'The system remains a well-organized and dangerous major hurricane with a impressively symmetric cloud pattern.'
It's forecast to remain a powerful hurricane for the next several days, and its wind field is beginning to grow.
'Erin is growing in size, and that trend is expected to continue over the next few days,' Pasch said. 'The expanding wind field will result in rough ocean conditions over much of the western Atlantic.'
Hurricane-force winds extend out 25 miles while tropical-storm-force winds extend out 205 miles.
Outer bands continue to lash the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico and Dominican Republic on Sunday, with 4-6 inches of rain in many places, but some areas that could get up to 8 inches. The could lead to flash and urban flooding, along with landslides or mudslides.
The system passed by the Cape Verde Islands earlier in the week, causing flash floods blamed for at least nine deaths. It has been moving quickly across the Atlantic.
The swells from the storm with dangerous surf and rip currents continue to hit the northeastern Caribbean islands and by early next week are forecast to spread to the Bahamas, Florida and rest of the U.S. East Coast as the storm intensifies and moves up into the Atlantic.
'The forecast cone takes the storm well east of Florida, but coastal impacts are forecast next week,' the National Weather Service in Melbourne stated. 'Surf, rip current and boating impacts reach our coast starting Monday and will peak Tuesday-Wednesday.'
The NHC was also keeping track of two other systems in the Atlantic with a chance to develop into the season's next tropical depression or storm. The next name on the list after Erin is Fernand.
As of the NHC's 8 a.m. tropical outlook, the most concerning system for Florida was an area of low pressure that could form by midweek from a tropical wave near the Cape Verde Islands, producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms and trailing the path of Hurricane Erin in the central tropical Atlantic.
'Some gradual development of this system is possible during the middle to latter portion of the week while the system moves westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic,' forecasters said.
The NHC gave it a 20% chance to develop in the next seven days.
The NHC also continued to track an area of low pressure a couple hundred miles off the coast of North Carolina that had disorganized shower activity to the east of the center.
'Development, if any, of this system should be slow to occur during the next day or so while it moves little over the warm waters of the Gulf Stream,' forecasters said. 'The opportunity for development should end on Monday, when environmental conditions are expected to become unfavorable.'
The NHC gave it a 10% chance to develop in the next two days.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration recently updated its season forecast, now calling for 13-18 named storms for the year, of which five to nine would grow into hurricanes. Two to five of those would develop into major hurricanes of Category 3 strength or higher.
The height of hurricane season runs from mid-August into October while the entire six-month season runs June 1 to Nov. 30.
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USA Today
23 minutes ago
- USA Today
Hurricane Erin weakens to a Category 3 but remains dangerous: Updates
Hurricane Erin, which had exploded into a Category 5 powerhouse, was downgraded to a Category 3, but rip currents and surf remained "life-threatening" to beachgoers along the U.S. East Coast, the National Hurricane Center said. The storm, still driving dangerous, 125 mph winds, was centered about 310 miles northwest of San Juan, Puerto Rico, at around 8 p.m. ET on Sunday, the hurricane center said. Just a day earlier, Erin's sustained winds had reached 160 mph. A mandatory evacuation order was issued for Hatteras Island, a barrier island located off the North Carolina coast, on Aug. 17. Local officials said they anticipated life-threatening impacts due to coastal flooding and ocean overwash that was expected to begin as early as Aug. 19. Erin, still a major hurricane, is the fifth named storm of the Atlantic hurricane season and the first to reach hurricane status. And Erin is growing in size, a trend expected to continue over the next few days, according to the hurricane center. Erin was moving west-northwest at nearly 13 mph on Aug. 17 and was expected to gradually turn to the northwest on Aug. 18 and Aug. 19, the hurricane center said. The storm's core was forecast to pass the east and northeast of the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas for the night into Aug. 18. "Some increase in size and strength is forecast during the next 48 hours," the hurricane center said in its 5 p.m. ET advisory. "Erin is likely to remain a dangerous major hurricane through the middle of this week." The storm's dangerous eyewall will most likely remain at sea, but the storm can do damage from afar, AccuWeather warned. The government of the Bahamas on Aug. 17 issued a tropical storm warning for the southeast Bahamas. "Combined with any shifts in track, this could bring tropical storm-to-hurricane conditions to parts of the U.S. Atlantic Coast," AccuWeather warned. Richard Pasch, senior Hurricane Specialist for the hurricane center, was among forecasters warning that Erin was expected to produce life-threatening surf and rip currents along the beaches of the United States, Bermuda, and Atlantic Canada for several days. Impacts from Erin are expected in Outer Banks of North Carolina The hurricane center advised that interests along the Outer Banks of North Carolina monitor the storm's progress as there is a risk of strong winds associated with the outer rainbands during the middle part of the week. The agency's forecast products have also increased the percentage of tropical storm force winds at Cape Hatteras to 14%, advising that wind probabilities are likely being underestimated beyond 36 hours because the size of the storm's wind field is "considerably larger than average." Cape Hatteras is located on Hatteras Island, one of the barrier islands of North Carolina. "While we still expect Erin to track well offshore, impacts along the Outer Banks due to waves and coastal flooding are expected," the National Weather Service office in Newport and Morehead City, North Carolina, said on Aug. 17. "The risk for high rip currents will begin tomorrow and continue through the week." The hurricane center also warned that the storm is expected to produce life-threatening surf and rip currents along the beaches of the Bahamas, much of the U.S. East Coast, Bermuda, and Atlantic Canada over the next several days. Tropical storm conditions were forecast in the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeast Bahamas on Aug. 17 and Aug. 18. Local state of emergency issued for North Carolina county Officials in Dare County, the easternmost county in North Carolina with an estimated population of about 37,000, declared a state of emergency on Aug. 17. The declaration went into effect at 6 p.m. local time. A mandatory evacuation was issued for residents and visitors in Hatteras Island, including the unincorporated villages of Rodanthe, Waves, Salvo, Avon, Buxton, Frisco, and Hatteras. County officials said that while the storm is expected to stay off the North Carolina coast, it was forecast to increase in size and bring life-threatening impacts to the county coastline. A coastal flood watch has already been issued for Dare County, according to the National Weather Service. The county noted that coastal flooding and ocean overwash were expected to begin as early as Aug. 19 and continue through Aug. 21. Officials warned that parts of North Carolina Highway 12 on Hatteras Island will "likely be impassable for several days." The weather service said coastal flooding could cause a significant threat to life and property, and that severe flooding is expected to extend inland. A high surf advisory was also issued for the area, meaning that large breaking waves reaching over 15 to 20 feet should be expected in the surf zone. Puerto Rico avoids 'major impacts' from Erin Puerto Rico Gov. Jenniffer González said public schools and government offices plan to be open Aug. 18. The University of Puerto Rico's Río Piedras campus will be open if power can be restored promptly, she said. More than 150,000 LUMA Energy customers were without power midday on Aug. 17. The company posted photos on social media of its employees in the communities working to restore power. By 7:30 p.m. local time, LUMA Energy said in an update that about 95% of customers had power, and the majority of affected customers were concentrated in the areas of Caguas, Mayagüez and San Juan as rainbands moved away from Puerto Rico. Additional rainfall of 2 to 4 inches, with locally higher amounts to 6 inches, is expected across Puerto Rico through Monday, the hurricane center said. The agency also warned that locally considerable flash and urban flooding, along with landslides or mudslides, were possible. González urged residents to stay out of the water but said the worst of the storm had moved on. "Today we should be overcoming the effects of the winds and rain brought by Hurricane Erin, which thank God did not have major impacts in Puerto Rico," González said at a briefing. Forecasters eye two potential storms in addition to Hurricane Erin Erin aided by warm waters AccuWeather explains that Erin struggled through relatively cool water and dry air early last week. But it gained momentum quickly from Thursday to Saturday, rolling over much warmer water while surrounded by moisture. Erin was a tropical storm before gaining hurricane status on Aug. 15. It became a major hurricane early on Aug. 16 when sustained winds exceeded 110 mph to gain Category 3 status, and later that day grew to a Category 5 storm with maximum sustained winds of 160 mph before those winds began to ebb. Erin's power expected to fluctuate but remain dangerous Erin has experienced a hurricane phenomenon called an eyewall replacement, AccuWeather Meteorologist Brandon Buckingham said. As the old eyewall expands outward, a new eyewall forms closer to the center. "Top winds often ease back during this cycle, but it is followed by another surge in wind intensity as the new eye completes organization," Buckingham warned. Erin's core not expected to reach US shores Earlier on Aug. 17, nearly the entire island of St. Thomas in the U.S. Virgin Islands was without electricity early on Aug. 17 — 19,126 out of 23,252 customers, according to By 9:30 p.m. local time, only 2,073 customers remained without power. Only scattered outages were reported on St. John and St. Croix. The core of Erin is expected to pass to the east of the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas late on Aug. 17 and on Aug. 18. The meteorological services of France and the Netherlands discontinued tropical storm watches for St. Martin, St. Barthelemy, and Sint Maarten, the National Hurricane Center said. U.S. shores are unlikely to see a direct hit, but a strong offshore hurricane can produce massive and dangerous waves well away from its center, AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva said. "The storm is forecast to remain hundreds of miles off the East Coast," DaSilva said, adding that "beaches along the entire East Coast, from Florida to New England and Atlantic Canada, will likely experience rough surf and dangerous rip currents as Erin tracks north and eventually northeast." Swells generated by Erin will continue to affect parts of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and the Turks and Caicos Islands for the next couple of days, the hurricane center said. These swells will spread to the Bahamas, Bermuda, the east coast of the United States, and Atlantic Canada during the early and middle portions of the week. Hurricane Erin tracker: See map of the storm's forecasted path 'Major coastal flooding' possible in North Carolina Hurricane Center director Michael Brennan said 50-foot waves could occur near the center and to the right of Erin as the storm moves north, resulting in large breaking waves at beaches along the coast. Wave heights, long-period swells, and life-threatening rip currents — powerful currents of water that can rapidly carry swimmers out to deeper waters — are expected to increase along East Coast beaches by Aug. 18, according to the hurricane center and local National Weather Service offices. Even from far offshore, "the threat for life-threatening rip currents, damaging beach erosion, major coastal flooding and extremely dangerous surf is increasing," the National Weather Service office in Morehead City, North Carolina, said on Aug. 17. Wave heights could range from 12 to 20 feet along the Outer Banks, the office reports. AccuWeather said Portions of the Outer Banks and the Virginia beaches will experience a storm surge up to several feet and "significant" coastal flooding and beach erosion. North Carolina's Highway 12 could see heavy overwash with closures possible beginning around midweek. How fast did Hurricane Erin intensify? Erin quickly exceeded expectations, undergoing a period of strengthening that the hurricane center refers to as "rapid intensification." Erin's burst of intensification will be among the most rapid ever recorded in the Atlantic Ocean. Erin's winds increased 45 mph in just 12 hours overnight on Aug. 15, from 75 mph to 120 mph. Ultimately, its wind speeds increased a total of 80 mph in just 18 hours from Friday to Saturday. In a post-season summary of the 2024 hurricane season, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration reported that Hurricane Milton's rate of intensification — 90 mph in 24 hours in October 2024 — was "among the highest ever observed." At least two other hurricanes have exceeded that increase. In 2005, Hurricane Wilma's winds increased to 125 mph in 24 hours. In 2007, wind speeds in Hurricane Felix increased by 100 mph in 24 hours, according to hurricane center data. Hurricane Erin brings heavy rain to Puerto Rico The tropical storm watch in the Southeast Bahamas means tropical storm conditions are possible within the area for over 24 hours. A tropical storm warning is in effect for the Turks and Caicos Islands, meaning tropical storm conditions are expected within 24 hours. Rain bands in Erin's expanding quadrants raked Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands late Aug. 16, with heavy rain and tropical storm force wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph, prompting flash flood warnings in some locations. The National Weather Service warned that up to 8 inches of rain was possible. On the night of Aug. 16, a buoy near the storm in a north-northeastward direction from San Juan, Puerto Rico, was recording significant wave heights of 22 to 28 feet. That's the average of the highest one-third of waves being measured at the buoy. What else is happening in the Atlantic? Storm activity is increasing in the Atlantic Ocean as the 2025 hurricane season reaches the time of year when peak activity traditionally begins. Along with Hurricane Erin, the National Hurricane Center is monitoring two other potential tropical disturbances; one is a couple of hundred miles off the North Carolina coast, with a very low percentage of developing into a tropical storm; another is in the eastern region of the central tropical Atlantic. A westward-moving tropical wave could produce an area of low pressure in the tropical Atlantic late in the week of Aug. 18, the hurricane center said. But the center shows a 20% chance of storm formation over the next week. If the wave beats the odds and becomes the next named tropical storm, it would receive the name Fernand. A long-term outlook from the Climate Prediction Center of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration also shows the potential for storm formation increasing between the eastern Caribbean and the African coast. It lists the chances of storm formation in the central tropical Atlantic at greater than 40% during the seven days beginning on Aug. 20. When did the 2025 hurricane season begin? The Atlantic hurricane season officially began on June 1 and lasts through the end of November. The Atlantic basin includes the Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean Sea, and the Gulf of America. Based on a 30-year climate period from 1991 to 2020, the average Atlantic hurricane season has 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes, the National Hurricane Center said. Active hurricane weather typically peaks between mid-August and mid-October. The eastern Pacific has a slightly longer hurricane season, running from May 15 to November 30. The eastern Pacific basin extends from Mexico and Central America westward. Contributing: Reuters
Boston Globe
2 hours ago
- Boston Globe
Stronger, bigger Hurricane Erin forecast to create dangerous surf along US coast
Additional strengthening was forecast for Monday followed by gradual weakening, but Erin was expected to remain a large, major hurricane into midweek. Advertisement Hurricane-force winds extended up to 60 miles (95 kilometers) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km). The area of strong winds is expected to grow more over the next few days. At that size, Erin will impact coastal areas even though it isn't forecast to make a direct landfall. Get Starting Point A guide through the most important stories of the morning, delivered Monday through Friday. Enter Email Sign Up Dare County, North Carolina, declared an emergency and ordered an evacuation beginning Monday of Hatteras Island on the Outer Banks, the thin stretch of low-lying barrier islands that juts far into the Atlantic. Several days of heavy surf and high winds and waves could wash out parts of N.C. Highway 12 running along the barrier islands, the National Weather Service said. Erin, the year's first Atlantic hurricane, reached an exceedingly dangerous Category 5 status Saturday with 160 mph (260 kph) winds before weakening. Advertisement 'You're dealing with a major hurricane. The intensity is fluctuating. It's a dangerous hurricane in any event,' Richard Pasch of the National Hurricane Center said. Erin's outer bands pelted parts of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands with heavy rains and tropical-storm winds during the day Sunday. That knocked out power to about 147,000 customers, according to Luma Energy, a private company that oversees the transmission and distribution of power on the island. More than 20 flights were canceled due to the weather. The Coast Guard allowed all ports in Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands to reopen Sunday as winds and rains decreased. Rough ocean conditions were forecast for parts of the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola and the Turks and Caicos. Life-threatening surf and rip currents were forecast into midweek for the Bahamas, Bermuda, the U.S. East Coast and Canada's Atlantic coast as Erin turns north and then northeast. Scientists have linked the rapid intensification of hurricanes in the Atlantic to climate change. Global warming is causing the atmosphere to hold more water vapor and is spiking ocean temperatures, and warmer waters give hurricanes fuel to unleash more rain and strengthen more quickly.
CNN
3 hours ago
- CNN
Hurricane Erin to churn up life-threatening surf and rip currents along US East Coast and Bermuda
Hurricanes StormsFacebookTweetLink Follow After exploding in strength at a historic rate this weekend, Hurricane Erin is now a sprawling Category 4 storm churning in the Atlantic. The storm's enormous footprint is becoming the biggest concern as it threatens to drive life-threatening rip currents and towering waves toward the eastern US coastline and Bermuda. The storm is forecast to stay well offshore, but its expansive wind field is already sending large swells outward for hundreds of miles, bringing dangerous rip currents to US shores as the storm prepares to move north. Erin's outer rain bands have lashed Puerto Rico, triggering flash flooding and power outages, and started impacting the southeast Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands early Monday, according to the National Hurricane Center. Large swells from the hurricane will reach much of the East Coast and Bermuda starting Tuesday, with conditions expected to worsen through midweek. 'Even though Erin is expected to remain far offshore, the threat to life from rip currents and high surf along our beaches is very real,' the National Weather Service office in Morehead City, North Carolina, warned in a beach hazards statement. Erin is forecast to curve north-northeast between the US East Coast and Bermuda over the coming days, remaining offshore but strengthening again and growing even larger in size. That means its influence will be felt not through direct landfall, but through water: large, pounding surf, dangerous currents and coastal flooding during high tides. On Sunday, Dare County in North Carolina — where the Outer Banks are located — issued a local state of emergency, which includes a mandatory evacuation order for Hatteras Island. 'Coastal flooding and ocean overwash are expected to begin as early as Tuesday, August 19, 2025 and continue through Thursday, August 21, 2025. Portions of N.C. Highway 12 on Hatteras Island will likely be impassable for several days,' according to a news release. Bermuda also lies in Erin's path of influence, with forecasters expecting the island to see very rough seas and possibly tropical storm–force winds later this week. Elsewhere along the US East Coast, from South Carolina to the Delmarva Peninsula and New Jersey shore, the rip current risk will climb sharply Tuesday through Thursday – even under sunny skies. So far this year, 44 people have died from rip currents and other surf-zone hazards in the US, according to the National Weather Service. Over the past decade, rip currents have proven to be one of the top weather killers in the US, behind only heat and flooding. The weather service says rip currents usually take more lives each year than lightning, hurricanes and tornadoes put together. With peak summer crowds still flocking to the coast, officials are urging beachgoers to stay out of the water when rip current alerts are in effect. 'This is not the week to swim in the ocean,' Dare County Emergency Management said in its evacuation order. 'The risk from surf and flooding will be life-threatening.' The outer bands of Erin continue to produce heavy rainfall across Puerto Rico, with additional rainfall of up to 2 inches expected across the island through Monday night, according to the National Hurricane Center. A flood watch remains in effect for the island through Monday evening, according to the National Weather Service, as the powerful storm left 100,000 people without power, Gov. Jennifer González-Colón said Sunday. Additional rainfall of up to 6 inches is forecast over the Turks and Caicos and the eastern Bahamas through Tuesday. Flash flooding, landslides and mudslides are possible, it added. There are tropical storm warnings in effect in Turks and Caicos Islands and southeast Bahamas. Erin's impact began over the weekend, when it logged one of the fastest intensification bursts on record in the Atlantic. In just over a day, the storm jumped from tropical-storm strength to Category 5, peaking near 165 mph on Saturday as it feasted on exceptionally warm water and favorable atmospheric conditions. It then eased to Category 3 while undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle – a structural reset where a new, larger eyewall forms and steals energy from the old one. Winds dip during the swap, but the storm usually grows in size. Now that the eyewall replacement is complete, Erin has re-intensified to Category 4, with a broader wind field that widens the zone of dangerous surf and rip currents. The hurricane's rapid intensification over the weekend was a stark reminder of how quickly storms can strengthen in a warming climate. It's also unusual to see a Category 5 storm form so early in the season, particularly outside of the Gulf of Mexico. Erin is the Atlantic's first hurricane of the season. Four other systems roamed the Atlantic basin before Erin — Andrea, Barry, Chantal and Dexter — but none were stronger than a tropical storm. The hurricane center has already identified a tropical wave behind Erin that has a medium chance of developing into a tropical depression or tropical storm within the next seven days. It's too early to say whether this system will materialize or where it may go, but forecasters are watching it closely. Despite Erin churning up cooler waters beneath the surface, there's still plenty of warm water for storms to tap into as sea surface temperatures remain well above average. They aren't quite as warm as the record levels reached in 2023 and 2024, but are still far warmer than they'd be in a world that wasn't heating up. August is when the tropics usually come alive: The busiest stretch of the season typically spans from mid-August to mid-October. Forecasters expect above-average tropical activity this year.
