Ukraine believes Putin has just ‘one card left to play' in ceasefire talks – and it gives Kyiv an upper hand

Independent

2 days ago

Vladimir Putin has 'only one card' left to play - to prolong the killing in Ukraine, according to a senior source in Volodymyr Zelensky's presidential office as Europe conducts top level talks ahead of the Alaska summit this week.
Zelensky has not been invited to Friday's meeting between Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump. And there are deep concerns that the US president will emerge from the encounter taking an even harder line on Ukraine.
Europe's leaders, including Sir Keir Starmer, have been corralling US officials and White House insiders, and are meeting virtually with the Oval Office to persuade Trump to use the leverage he has over Putin to get him to agree a ceasefire.
'The main thing for Putin is to try to trade land for ceasefires,' the source close to Zelensky told The Independent. 'The ability to kill and to prolong war is the only card Putin has. So, he's trying to play this card.'
In February, Trump lost his temper with Zelensky, yelling at him that he didn't 'have the cards' in the conflict with Russia during an infamous press conference in the Oval Office.
Now, Ukraine insists, it's Putin who has the weaker hand.
Europe's leaders are trying to reinforce that message to Trump so that he feels confident threatening further economic sanctions against countries that import Russian oil - and even to renew arms shipments to Ukraine - to get Putin to suspend military operations.
'Trump does want to finish the killings, it's true, and he has the power to do it. So the question is for him how to do the right thing,' the Ukrainian presidential advisor said.
So far Putin has said any ceasefire would have to come on the condition that Ukraine agrees to cede four provinces - Luhansk, Donetsk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia - to Russia along with the Crimea. He also wants Ukraine not to use any pause in the fighting to rearm.
Ukraine has long agreed to a minimum 30-day unconditional ceasefire and insists that it is willing to discuss grounds for peace.
As speculation mounts over what Friday's summit will achieve, Trump has already indicated that he agrees with Russia and that Ukraine should be prepared to agree 'land swaps' of Ukrainian territory.
Europe, the UK and Ukraine have ruled out such concessions – especially as part of any deal struck between Russia and America without Ukraine present.
Despite the fanfare over the meeting in Anchorage, the US actually has less power, and therefore influence over the outcome of talks, as a result of forcing Kyiv and Europe into taking on more of the burden of the defence of Ukraine.
Trump cut all military aid to Ukraine earlier this year. The total US military spend there is €114 billion, which is dwarfed by the EU and UK's current pledged contribution standing at €250 billion.
Ukraine's Nato allies now have to buy US weapons to supply Kyiv, but there are now signs that the US could ban that revenue stream.
Russia has seen its second largest oil client, India, hit with a total of 50 per cent US tariffs. Twenty five per cent of that was imposed to get Putin to respond to Trump's ceasefire proposals.
And if the US decided to open the taps of free military aid again it could tip the tactical balance rapidly in Ukraine's favour.
The UK and Europe want Trump to spell this out to Putin.
'Zelensky supports the ceasefire,' the Ukrainian source said. 'The problem is that Putin rejects it and the majority of Ukrainians want to see peace, it's true, but at the same time the majority of Ukrainians reject Russian claims on the territory.'