Shane Bieber knows his path to aiding the Blue Jays in October. Now he's one step closer

New York Times

3 days ago

TORONTO — Shane Bieber leaned on the dugout rail as his Cleveland Guardians pushed to the 2024 American League Division Series. All he could do was watch. Six months into his Tommy John recovery, Bieber was stuck on the sidelines as Alex Cobb and Matt Boyd carried Cleveland's rotation through the playoffs.
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Bieber didn't realize it at the time, but he was looking into his own future — a glimpse at the rehabbing hired gun he'd soon become. The Guardians signed Boyd as a free agent in late June last season, a year after he underwent Tommy John. They traded for Cobb at the 2024 deadline, months before he could return from hip surgery and a shoulder issue. They were upside wagers. The Guardians needed rotation help and took shots on injured arms.
Those moves paid off, as Cobb and Boyd started five of the Guardians' 10 October games last year. Now Bieber hopes to deliver on that same gamble for Toronto.
'They both turned out to be great assets,' Bieber said of Cobb and Boyd. 'Just to pick their brains on their experiences going through a surgery like this, how best to go about it, what to expect.'
Bieber completed a fifth rehab outing on Sunday, three days after his trade to Toronto. He threw five innings for Triple-A Buffalo, striking out six batters and allowing two earned runs. The Syracuse Mets' damage came on a ground-ball single in the second frame and a solo shot in the third. Bieber reached 62 pitches with efficient innings and will likely require at least one more rehab outing to build up further.
'I'm close now,' Bieber said ahead of the outing. 'It's easier said than done to just take it one day at a time, but I'm gonna do just that.'
At his best, Bieber is a conniving pitcher. His velocity doesn't overwhelm, and none of his five pitches rank above average in models such as Stuff+. He frustrates, instead, with location, tunnelling and sequencing. Syracuse catcher Matt O'Neill leaned back with dismay as he watched a called strike clip the side of the zone for a third-inning strikeout on Sunday.
Bieber gets ahead with a four-seam fastball, throwing it over 50 percent of the time to start at-bats. He then owns the outside edge with the rest of his offerings — slider, changeup, curveball and cutter. Blue Jays hitting coach David Popkins planned against Bieber many times while leading the Minnesota Twins' offence. The general approach was to go down and hit his pitches on the corners or hope Bieber missed in the zone — pick one. It's either giving in to Bieber or patience that may never be rewarded. Neither approach is ideal.
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Ernie Clement played behind Bieber for two years in Cleveland. That version of Bieber posted a 2.97 ERA across 2021 and 2022, following up a Cy Young campaign with continued dominance. He's one of the easiest pitchers to field behind, Clement said, because 'he just strikes everybody out.'
In his final full season before injury in 2023, Bieber earned a 3.80 ERA. Expecting a return to that form after major elbow surgery is a lofty task, but Bieber just watched it happen. When Boyd joined the Guardians' rotation last August after Tommy John, he posted a 2.72 ERA in eight starts down the stretch. Boyd then allowed just one run in three postseason outings.
'Seeing the success he had right away was encouraging,' Bieber told The Athletic earlier this year.
It remains a mystery how, specifically, Bieber fits into Toronto's September rotation and October plans. Manager John Schneider met with the Jays' five current starters after the trade, he said, stressing to the group to 'not be looking over your shoulder.' There is a chance that at least one will lose their starting spot, eventually. The team is also considering a six-man rotation, but that would throw off routines and add stress to the bullpen.
'There's not a glaring person that deserves to be demoted or moved or anything like that,' Schneider said. 'So I just think it's a good problem to have, and you deal with it when that time comes.'
That decision will fall on Schneider and Toronto's coaching staff. It probably won't come for at least 10 more days. Bieber's current task is simple: continue carving through minor-league hitters and building his pitch count. Then, eventually, he can step off the sidelines. The Blue Jays hope, this October, Bieber won't be stuck watching.