IMF raises China's GDP outlook more than any other economy after strong first-half data
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The IMF now projects that China's economy will expand by 4.8 per cent in 2025, up 0.8 percentage point from its
previous forecast in April , according to its World Economic Outlook report released on Tuesday.
The upwards revision for China's forecast was the largest among all countries and regions included in the report, as this year's global economic growth forecast was modestly revised up by 0.2 percentage points to 3 per cent.
'This revision reflects stronger-than-expected activity in the first half of 2025 and the significant reduction in US–China tariffs,' the IMF said in its report.
And the IMF's chief economist, Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, said at a press conference on Tuesday: 'A particularly important component [of China's economic activity] was the strength of exports from China to other parts of the world [beyond the US].'
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Chinese shipments to its largest export destination, the US, fell by 10.9 per cent in the first half of the year amid threats of tariffs as high as 245 per cent in April, according to customs data.
Despite this decline, the country's overall trade growth remained robust, with total exports rising 5.9 per cent over the same period, driven by growing shipments to regions such as Southeast Asia, Africa and Europe.
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