Why Qualcomm's (QCOM) Long-Term Prospects Shine, Even if the Stock Doesn't

Business Insider

a day ago

Qualcomm (QCOM) has underperformed over the past year, declining 26%, primarily due to macroeconomic factors rather than internal company mechanics. Although the company's fundamentals remain very solid, it has faced some headwinds, such as concerns that its business is too concentrated on Apple (AAPL) for modem revenue, despite its broader operations still being more rooted in the Android ecosystem.
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Still, that doesn't stop me from seeing the stock as a long-term Buy —especially since my bullishness comes from Qualcomm's key competitive advantage: its ability to build the Snapdragon platform, which integrates a modem, CPU, and even a GPU chip—something no other competitor can currently match. This positions the company to tap into new business opportunities that could help offset its current customer concentration.
Beyond that, Qualcomm's asset-light model allows it to generate very high returns on its investments, highlighting its operational efficiency, strong financial health, and consistent value creation for shareholders. This helps justify the company trading at a slightly stretched valuation when considering its operational profits relative to enterprise value.
Inside Qualcomm's Capital-Light Playbook
When looking for value stocks, one of the most important factors—if not the most important—is a company's ability to generate consistent earnings. Examining QCOM's balance sheet reveals a capital-light, high-margin model driven by intellectual property (IP) and characterized by heavy investment in research and development (R&D).
As a fabless semiconductor company, Qualcomm relies on external manufacturing partners such as TSMC (TSM) and Samsung (SSNLF) for chip production. Notably, only approximately 7% of its $55.3 billion in total assets is allocated to property, plant, and equipment (PP&E), which is relatively low compared to the industry average. This underscores the efficiency of its asset-light business model and the minimal physical infrastructure required to support its operations.
Roughly 18% of its assets are classified as goodwill, indicating a strong track record of acquisitions, which is clearly part of its strategy to acquire intellectual property (IP) or talent rather than build everything in-house. One recent example is the $2.4 billion acquisition of the UK-based semiconductor firm Alphawave.
Additionally, approximately 12% of Qualcomm's total assets are tied to IP licensing and chip design. That makes sense, given its dominant position in the Android smartphone chip market, especially in the high-end segment with its Snapdragon lineup.
The Power of Lean Capital at Work
Given that around 37% of Qualcomm's total assets are intangible, it's worth considering the company's actual operational efficiency once these intangibles are excluded. To gain a clearer picture, it is sensible to examine how Qualcomm allocates its limited tangible capital to generate profits.
Over the past twelve months, Qualcomm produced an operating profit of $12.3 billion. During the same period, its net working capital was approximately $2.7 billion, and its invested capital—mainly property, plant, and equipment, and other intangibles—totaled roughly $8.28 billion. Dividing the operating profit by this invested capital plus working capital yields an eye-catching ~112% return on capital (ROC).
That kind of number highlights Qualcomm's exceptional operational efficiency, something typically only seen in asset-light, IP-driven tech or software companies. For context, most of these firms operate with a return on capital (ROC) well below 50%.
In short, despite a balance sheet loaded with intangibles, Qualcomm proves that it's highly efficient with the real capital it uses. And that translates into three key advantages: sustainable value creation, a durable competitive moat, and stronger financial flexibility.
Why Qualcomm's Price Tag Might Still Make Sense
Even a company with a high return on capital isn't necessarily a buy—not if you're overpaying for it. That's why it's vital to assess operating profitability in relation to the company's total valuation, not just traditional P/E or P/B metrics. One way to do this is by comparing operating profit to enterprise value (EV), which reflects what the market is actually paying for the entire business.
In Qualcomm's case, we can measure this by dividing its operating profit by its enterprise value (EV). Over the last twelve months, Qualcomm generated $12.3 billion in operating profit, while its current enterprise value stands at $164.6 billion. That results in an earnings yield of 7.5%.
To interpret that number correctly, it should be compared to Qualcomm's cost of capital. Using a 10-year treasury yield of 4.5%, a beta of 1.2, and an equity risk premium of 4–5%, the estimated cost of equity falls between 9% and 10%. Since the earnings yield of 7.5% is below this range, Qualcomm doesn't appear particularly cheap at the moment. However, judged against historic performance against the S&P 500 (SPX), QCOM stock has underperformed.
That said, this isn't necessarily a red flag. Even if the stock looks a bit expensive on this metric, Qualcomm continues to create value through its exceptional return on capital and strong cash generation. This is reflected in its sustainable 2.28% dividend yield and $16.5 billion in share buybacks over the past four years.
Given Qualcomm's maturity, profitability, and operational efficiency, a lower earnings yield may be viewed as acceptable, reflecting a premium for quality and stability.
Is QCOM a Buy, Sell, or Hold?
Analyst sentiment on Qualcomm stock is somewhat mixed. Out of 17 experts who've issued ratings in the past three months, eight are bullish, eight are neutral, and just one is bearish. Still, there's little hesitation when it comes to upside expectations. Qualcomm's average stock price target is at $177.75, suggesting ~14% in potential upside over the next twelve months.
Qualcomm's Value Goes Beyond the Price Tag
While traditional valuation metrics may indicate that Qualcomm is undervalued, I believe that perspective overlooks the company's strong operational efficiency. Qualcomm doesn't need to appear 'cheap' to represent a compelling investment opportunity. Its robust, above-average returns on capital, driven by an asset-light business model, demonstrate its ability to create substantial shareholder value and may, in fact, justify a valuation premium.
Viewed through this fundamental lens, and given Qualcomm's consistent track record of long-term value creation, I consider it a solid long-term investment, even at its current, relatively full valuation.