Independent candidate emerges as wild card in Michigan governor's race

The Hill

a day ago

Detroit Mayor Mike Duggan is threatening to roil the race to replace Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D) as he seeks to boost momentum for his independent campaign.
Duggan surprised observers in December when he announced that he would run for governor as an independent instead of as a Democrat, which he had been for his entire life. Critics have argued Duggan's decision is about recognizing his potential struggles to win a Democratic primary and could risk the party's ability to hold on to the office in next year's election.
But Duggan is pitching himself as the right candidate to break the mold of the two-party system and touting his early support from members of both parties.
'The support is far beyond anything I could have expected, going to farms in remote areas of the state, going to small towns, going to big cities,' Duggan told The Hill in an interview.
'In Michigan, in particular, people are really fed up with the toxic partisan environment,' he added.
Early indicators show Duggan making some inroads.
A February poll showed Duggan with a clear above-water net favorability rating, in the positive by 28 points. He also held his own in a hypothetical three-way gubernatorial match-up.
A more recent poll from May also showed reasons for optimism for the three-term mayor. Pollsters found Duggan holds positive favorability ratings across the political spectrum, among those identifying as strongly Democratic, strongly Republican and independents.
Duggan also received 20 percent or more of the vote in various hypothetical three-way match-ups with the current options that Democrats and Republicans have, denying any candidate a majority of the vote. And he took some support each from the Democratic and Republican candidates.
Duggan has said his goal is to reach 40 percent support, the amount he feels he needs to clinch victory. After announcing his campaign, he initially said he would consider not continuing with his campaign if he didn't feel the support was there, but he said he's decided to go forward.
'I never thought I'd be in the 20s in the polling and have endorsements from a major union like the carpenters or 160 African American ministers or some of the police and fire unions,' he said. 'The idea of an independent candidate, people are warming to it. At first, nobody in Michigan had seen this before and weren't sure what to make of it, but there's a lot of enthusiasm and a lot of momentum.'
Duggan has recently notched some key endorsements, gaining the support of the Michigan Regional Council of Carpenters and Millwrights, which has more than 14,000 members in the state. He also seems to be drawing the attention of some business leaders, reportedly receiving widespread acclaim at a Detroit Regional Chamber convention.
Duggan has touted his record as mayor overseeing Detroit, arguing he has the right experience for governor.
He became mayor of the state's largest city in 2013 in the aftermath of the city declaring bankruptcy, struggling with high unemployment and crime. But since then, its prospects have turned around considerably.
Crime has come down, the city's budgets have been balanced and the population grew for the first time in decades.
But Duggan faces some structural barriers that make a successful independent campaign difficult.
Voters often express frustration with both parties, which Duggan has tapped into, but other independent candidates who have run on a similar message have not performed as well as they hoped or even expected because of positive polling.
A poll at one time showed independent candidate Greg Orman performing better than Kansas Gov. Laura Kelly (D) against Republican Kris Kobach in the state's 2018 gubernatorial race, but Orman only finished with 6.5 percent support.
In 2022, longtime Democratic state legislator Betsy Johnson ran as a moderate independent for governor of Oregon but finished with about 8.5 percent support, despite reaching 20 percent in some polls.
Michigan Democratic Party Chair Curtis Hertel Jr. predicted Duggan's current spot will be his 'high water mark,' arguing his numbers haven't seen significant movement since he launched his campaign. He noted that Duggan's campaign reposted Elon Musk asking his followers if there should be a new party representing Americans in the political middle.
'I think Elon Musk may be the most unpopular figure in America right now, and [Duggan's] going after that because he knows that he can't pull enough votes on the Democratic side,' Hertel told The Hill.
He said he is pleased with the main options that Democrats have — Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson, Lt. Gov. Garlin Gilchrist and Genesee County Sheriff Chris Swanson — and trusts that whoever wins the primary will have the electoral strength to win.
He said Democrats must make clear their record in response to some voters' feelings of frustration with their party and the system overall.
'My job is not to prognosticate, it's to win,' Hertel said about how much of a challenge Duggan's candidacy is for Democrats. 'I'm not spending my time worrying about anything other than doing what makes sense for a Democrat to win Michigan, and that's showing up everywhere and making sure that we have a strong team heading into 2026.'
The Hill has reached out to the state GOP for comment.
But in one early sign that Democrats are at least taking note of Duggan's support, the Democratic Governors Association launched a digital ad last month alleging corruption from his time as mayor.
Duggan denied the allegations, arguing Democrats have widened their platform from hating President Trump and Republicans to hating him as well.
Pollster Bernie Porn, the president of Epic MRA, said despite Duggan's current support, he believes the backing he has from Republicans is more potentially vulnerable once GOP attacks go after his Democratic background. He said Democrats may have more of a struggle particularly in southeast Michigan, home to a large group of Democratic voters in Detroit.
He said Democrats will likely need to run a negative campaign against him to win back those voters currently open to him.
'If anybody can do it in terms of winning as an independent, [Duggan] probably would be among the likely folks, but independents have not fared well in terms of their prospects of winning a general election,' he said.
Duggan points to his track record of defying the odds in the past, winning as a white write-in candidate in a majority-Black city to be first elected mayor in 2013.
'There was a lot of skepticism, and it was a very interesting thing,' he said. 'As I spent time in living rooms and people got to know me, the momentum built. We're certainly seeing the same thing here.'