Jens Stoltenberg's shock return to Norway politics upends polls before election

Reuters

11-03-2025

Summary
Appointment as finance minister, dubbed "Stoltenback", was surprise
Labour party surges 10 points in polls ahead of September vote
"Jens" popular for response to 2011 Breivik attacks, NATO role
OSLO, March 11 (Reuters) - After Jens Stoltenberg answered questions in a routine session in Norway's parliament, the buzz outside the chamber was anything but normal. A class of visiting teenagers pointed excitedly at him. A cleaner stopped her rounds to take a photo.
One of Norway's most recognisable figures internationally and often known just by his first name at home, Stoltenberg's impact on politics has been immediate since returning to the domestic sphere after leading the NATO alliance for a decade.
His Labour party gained 10 points in opinion polls within days of his appointment as finance minister on February 4, meaning it could end up winning the country's election in September, an unthinkable prospect only weeks ago with voters disgruntled at the rising cost of living.
The 65-year-old Oslo native was prime minister in 2000-2001 and 2005-2013. He says he does not seek the premiership again, currently held by his close friend and ally Jonas Gahr Stoere.
Norwegian media has dubbed his return "Stoltenback".
"I do think there is a Stoltenberg effect," said Johannes Bergh, head of the national election studies programme at the Oslo-based Institute for Social Research.
"The reason why he's so popular, and almost revered now, is probably both because of the way he handled the terrorist attacks in 2011, when he was prime minister ... He has earned a lot of respect for that," he said.
Stoltenberg led the nation in grief after far-right fanatic Anders Behring Breivik killed 77 people in twin attacks in Oslo and Utoeya - the worst acts of violence in Norway since World War Two.
Bergh also pointed to Stoltenberg's leadership of NATO during the war in Ukraine and Donald Trump's first term as U.S. president.
At NATO, he was nicknamed the " Trump whisperer" for his ability to convince Trump to stick with the alliance after he complained allies were spending too little on defence and threatened to pull out.
'NICE TO BE BACK'
He handed over the reins as NATO secretary general in October, to former Dutch prime minister Mark Rutte, before Trump won November's U.S. election to secure a second term.
Stoltenberg's appointment stunned the country as he had said after leaving NATO he was not returning to politics.
Giddy Labour politicians posted social media reactions such as "Daddy is Home!" and "Jens we can" alongside pictures of themselves with him.
His return coincided with the exit from the government in late January of the eurosceptic Centre Party, which had limited Labour's margin of manoeuvre. Bergh said that had contributed to the party's surge in the polls.
"Their credibility as a governing party had suffered quite a bit. Now they are taking it back," Bergh said.
Policy-wise, should Labour win in September, there would be an emphasis on continuing oil and gas exploration and a focus on close cooperation with the EU. Norway is not a member of the bloc but is part of the European common market.
It would also be a rare example of an incumbent, non-populist, government getting re-elected worldwide.
The man himself is relishing his return to the political fray. "It is very nice to be back in parliament," Stoltenberg told Reuters after speaking in the chamber.
"Taking part in question time still feels a little unusual. It is my second time now, but I have managed to do it so far without making a formal mistake."
One difference he notes after his time abroad is that Norway's politics is less polarised.
"We are having proper debates, with real political disagreements, but our tone is more conciliatory, less polarised and less hateful as it is in other countries," he said.
"It does not come automatically. We as politicians must show respect for one another ... We must take care of that."