Senate Readies Tax Bill for Vote as Holdouts Threaten Delay
President Donald Trump's tax-and-spending agenda is nearing a climactic vote in the Senate this week in the wake of air strikes on Iran, which risk embroiling the US in a prolonged Middle East conflict.
Trump's $4.2 trillion tax-cut package, partially offset by social safety-net reductions, does not yet have the support it needs to pass the Senate. Fiscal hawks seeking to lower the bill's total price tag are at odds with Republicans worried about cuts to Medicaid health coverage for their constituents and phase-outs to green energy incentives that support jobs in their states.
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Yahoo
11 minutes ago
- Yahoo
Running a low-turnout Georgia runoff election could cost $100 per vote
ATLANTA (AP) — Miller County Election Supervisor Jerry Calhoun says he's not sure anyone will vote in an upcoming Democratic primary runoff. After all, the southwest Georgia county only recorded one vote in the June 17 Democratic primary for the state Public Service Commission among candidates Keisha Waites, Peter Hubbard and Robert Jones. Two other Democratic ballots weren't counted, probably because voters chose Daniel Blackman, who had been disqualified. Turnout wasn't much higher among Republicans, with 40 votes cast in Commissioner Tim Echols' victory over challenger Lee Muns. 'I'm going to tell you the truth, I'm worried about it for the runoff, but there's nothing I can do about it," Calhoun said of the July 15 Democratic runoff between Waites and Hubbard. Statewide turnout for the primary on June 17 reached just 2.8% of Georgia's 7.4 million active registered voters. That includes more than 15,000 people who likely voted for Blackman and didn't have their votes counted. But the Democratic runoff might struggle to reach 1% turnout statewide. And counties could spend $10 million statewide to hold the election, based on a sampling of some county spending. That could be more than $100 per vote. People who want to change Georgia's runoff system say this election shows how the state spends money only to have decisions made by a fraction of people who voted the first time. 'It's a terrible waste of resources," said state Rep. Saira Draper, an Atlanta Democrat. But key Republicans are opposed to two methods used elsewhere — letting someone win without a majority or using ranked choice voting to determine a majority. In the meantime, some Republican-dominated counties are using a state law to reduce the number of polling places for the runoff. In many states, finishing first is enough to win, even if it's far short of a majority. Georgia is one of only nine states, mostly in the South, that require runoffs. And it's one of only two states, along with Mississippi, that demand a runoff if no candidate wins a general election majority after a partisan primary. Historians say runoffs were created in part to make it harder for Black candidates to win office, giving white voters a chance to unify around a candidate. Georgia legislators in 1995 lowered the threshold to avoid a runoff, requiring a candidate to a earn only a 45% plurality. Republicans changed the threshold back to a majority after a GOP candidate lost a 1996 Senate race. Draper introduced a bill in 2023 to lower the threshold back to 45%, but it went nowhere. House Governmental Affairs Committee Chair Victor Anderson, a Cornelia Republican, is among many who believes a majority is an important electoral mandate. 'To actually win an election you should receive, in one form or fashion, at least 50% plus one of the vote. And so I am not in favor of a plurality system," said Anderson, whose committee oversees election legislation. Another option would be letting voters rank their choices and determining the winner using second or third choices. That's the system New York City voters are using to elect a mayor. Scot Turner, a former Republican state representative who champions that system, said turnout is typically lower for runoffs, silencing voters who don't return. He said ranked choice voting would broaden participation, ensure a majority chooses the winner and save money. 'It's a tweak of our existing system that maximizes turnout and lowers cost,' Turner said. 'Because we see these massive drop-offs in turnout for runoffs, those are disenfranchised voters. Their votes are tossed as if they never were cast.' Georgia issues ranked-choice ballots to military and overseas voters. But many Republicans oppose expansion, with the Georgia Senate passing bills to ban its further use. What some counties are doing is limiting the number of polling places for the runoff. State law allows a county to open only one polling place for a primary runoff if fewer than 1% of a county's registered voters cast ballots in the initial primary. That's likely to apply to some Republican-dominated counties. A few rural counties, including Miller County, already operate only one voting location. Cherokee County, with nearly 208,000 active voters, announced Friday that it would open only one polling place after fewer than 2,000 people cast ballots in the Democratic primary. Elections Director Anne Dover said the decision would cut the cost of the runoff in half, saving about $70,000. Travis Doss, president of the Georgia Association of Voter Registration and Election Officials, said Friday that as many as 20 counties are considering that option.
Yahoo
17 minutes ago
- Yahoo
Here's how Wall Street sees the Israel-Iran conflict affecting recession odds
The Israel-Iran conflict raises concerns over a potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Goldman Sachs and other banks warn of recession risks if global oil supply is disrupted. Higher oil prices would impact global economic growth and inflation. Recession risks have come down significantly from their peak in April after Donald Trump's tariff announcements, but the Israel-Iran conflict has ignited fresh concerns about the path of global economic growth. After US airstrikes on Iran's nuclear facilities over the weekend, markets are worried about Iran blocking the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world's most important oil-shipping chokepoints. Over the weekend, the odds of Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz spiked to over 50% on Polymarket. The risk of further military escalation is a major reason Goldman Sachs said that it hasn't cut its recession probability, which hovers at 30%. With roughly 20% of the world's oil passing through the strait, a closure would bottleneck oil supply and send oil prices, and subsequently inflation, higher. At current levels around $73 a barrel of US oil and $76 a barrel for Brent, crude oil prices have increased around $10 per barrel since early June, which wouldn't be enough to pose a big threat to inflation and GDP growth, Jan Hatzius, the bank's chief economist, wrote in a note over the weekend. However, he sees the possibility of a much larger price move "in a tail scenario where the conflict expands significantly further and/or the Strait of Hormuz is closed. In that tail scenario, the risk of recession would climb sharply." In a worst-case scenario, oil volumes through the Strait of Hormuz could decrease by 50% for one month, then remain down 10% for another 11 months, Goldman Sachs commodities analysts predicted. That would lead Brent oil prices to peak at $110 per barrel before coming down to $95 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2025. While Goldman Sachs' base case assumes Brent oil prices fall to $60 by year-end and deliver a modest boost to GDP growth, disruption in the energy supply could reduce global growth by 0.3 percentage points and send inflation rising by 0.7 percentage points. With regards to markets, Morgan Stanley also sees rising oil prices as a potential negative catalyst that sparks a potential 19% drop in the S&P 500. According to Mike Wilson, the bank's chief investment officer and chief equity strategist, a 75% year-over-year rise in oil prices has historically been disruptive enough to impact the business cycle and lead to a recession. Some forecasters see the potential for an even higher spike in crude prices. A 75% increase in oil prices isn't off the table, JPMorgan said. Commodities analysts at the bank see a 21% chance of a major disruption to energy production in the Persian Gulf, which could cause oil prices to rise to $120-$130 a barrel. However, such a scenario is not the bank's base case. JPMorgan sees crude oil averaging down to around $60 a barrel by the end of the year and into 2026, barring severe geopolitical escalation. Morgan Stanley's Commodities Strategist Martijn Rats believes a 75% spike in oil prices would only emerge as a result of prolonged supply disruption in the Strait of Hormuz. "Thus, while we're respectful of the risks, there's a long way to go on this basis," Wilson wrote. Read the original article on Business Insider Sign in to access your portfolio
TechCrunch
20 minutes ago
- TechCrunch
Court filings reveal OpenAI and io's early work on an AI device
Legal filings submitted earlier this month from lawyers representing OpenAI and Jony Ive's io reveal new details about the companies' efforts to build a mass-market AI hardware device. The filings are part of a trademark dispute lawsuit filed this month by iyO, a Google-backed hardware startup developing custom-molded earpieces that connect to other devices. Over the weekend, OpenAI pulled promotional materials related to its $6.5 billion acquisition of Jony Ive's io startup in order to comply with a court order involved in the suit. OpenAI says it's fighting iyO's allegations of trademark infringement. For the last year, OpenAI executives and former Apple leaders now working at io have vigorously researched in-ear hardware devices, according to filings submitted in iyO's lawsuit. In a June 12 filing, lawyers representing OpenAI and io said the companies purchased at least 30 headphone sets from various companies to explore what's on the market today. In recent months, OpenAI and io executives also met with iyO's leadership, and demoed their in-ear technology, according to emails revealed in the case. That said, OpenAI's first device in collaboration with io may not be a pair of headphones at all. Tang Tan, a longtime Apple executive that co-founded io and serves as the startup's chief hardware officer, claims in a declaration to the court that the prototype OpenAI CEO Sam Altman mentioned in io's launch video 'is not an in-ear device, nor a wearable device.' Tan notes that the design of said prototype in not yet finalized, and that the product is at least a year away from being advertised or offered for sale. The form factor of OpenAI and io's first hardware device has largely remained a mystery. Altman merely stated in io's launch video that the startup was working to create a 'family' of AI devices with various capabilities, and Ive said io's first prototype 'completely captured' his imagination. Altman had previously told OpenAI's employees at a meeting that the company's prototype, when finished, would able to fit in a pocket or sit on a desk, according to the Wall Street Journal. The OpenAI CEO reportedly said the device would be fully aware of a user's surroundings, and that it would be a 'third device' for consumers to use alongside their smartphone and laptop. Techcrunch event Save $200+ on your TechCrunch All Stage pass Build smarter. Scale faster. Connect deeper. Join visionaries from Precursor Ventures, NEA, Index Ventures, Underscore VC, and beyond for a day packed with strategies, workshops, and meaningful connections. Save $200+ on your TechCrunch All Stage pass Build smarter. Scale faster. Connect deeper. Join visionaries from Precursor Ventures, NEA, Index Ventures, Underscore VC, and beyond for a day packed with strategies, workshops, and meaningful connections. Boston, MA | REGISTER NOW 'Our intent with this collaboration was, and is, to create products that go beyond traditional products and interfaces,' said Altman in a declaration to the court submitted on June 12. Lawyers representing OpenAI also said in a filing that the company has explored a wide range of devices, including ones that were 'desktop-based and mobile, wireless and wired, wearable and portable.' While smart glasses have emerged as the front-runner for AI-enabled devices, with companies like Meta and Google racing to develop the first broadly adopted pair, several companies are also exploring AI-enabled headphones. Apple is reportedly working on a pair of AirPods with cameras, which would help power AI features by gathering information about the surrounding environment. In recent months, OpenAI and io executives have done considerable research into in-ear products. On May 1, OpenAI's VP of Product, Peter Welinder, and Tan met with iyO's CEO, Jason Rugolo, to learn more about iyO's in-ear product, according to an emailed invitation revealed in the case. The meeting took place at io's office in Jackson Square, the San Francisco neighborhood where Ive has bought several buildings to work on LoveFrom and io. At the meeting, Welinder and Tan tested out iyO's custom-fit earpiece, but were disappointed when the product failed repeatedly during demonstrations, according to follow-up emails revealed in the case. Tan claims in his declaration that he met with Rugolo as a courtesy to his mentor, longtime Apple executive Steve Zadesky, who recommended he take the meeting. Tan also claims he took several precautions to avoid learning too much about iyO's IP, such as suggesting that his lawyers review materials before he does. However, it seemed that OpenAI and io employees thought they could learn something from one of iyO's partners. To customize its in-ear headsets, iyO sent a specialist from an ear-scanning company, The Ear Project, to someone's home or office to get a detailed map of someone's ear. In one email revealed in the case, Marwan Rammah, a former Apple engineer that's now working at io, told Tan that purchasing a large database of three-dimensional scans from The Ear Project could give the company a 'helpful starting point on ergonomics.' It's unclear if any such deal took place. Rugolo tried repeatedly to forge a deeper relationship between iyO, io, and OpenAI — but largely failed, according to the emails. He pitched OpenAI on launching iyO's device as an early 'developer kit' for its final AI device. He pitched OpenAI on investing in iyO and, at one point, even offered to sell his entire company for $200 million, the filing say. However, Tan said in his declaration that he declined these offers. Evans Hankey, former Apple executive turned io co-founder and chief product officer, said in a declaration to the court that io is not working on a 'custom-molded earpiece product.' The ChatGPT-maker seems to be more than a year out from selling its first hardware device, which may not be an in-ear product whatsoever. Gven what the company said in this lawsuit, it appears it is also exploring other form factors.
