Bitcoin breaks the rules - but that might just be the point
Let's talk about price. Or more specifically, let's talk about how Bitcoin defies the neat rule we try to impose on financial markets. While Wall Street was catching its breath this May with equities softening under the weight of interest rate uncertainty and macro drag (including the Nasdaq, S&P 500 and the Dow Jones losing ground) Bitcoin casually sprinted to two new all-time highs in 24 hours. This wasn't just a decoupling; it was a reminder that Bitcoin doesn't play by the usual rules.
Traditional investors expect risk assets to track with inflation or retreat in volatile moments; Bitcoin doesn't always comply. When Trump's pro-crypto stance pushed prices up, that made sense but when his trade wars did the same (with investors were keen on divesting from US-coupled stocks and currency), it became clear that stability and chaos can feed the beast.
This piece introduces some sense to a market that doesn't make much sense.
The market moves at the speed of conviction
Gold may be 5,000 years old, but we're living in the exponential age and Bitcoin is moving at the speed of conviction. Welcome to the era of 'programmable belief' where unlike traditional finance, where confidence is a side effect of fundamentals such as earnings per share and profit margin, in digital assets belief can be tokenised and rewarded. It's what allows Bitcoin to soar when nothing else makes sense because the network acts on shared conviction, not central control. Your conviction becomes visible and often profitable. This flips traditional finance on its head because instead of belief being silent and unrewarded; support becomes a mechanism for ownership, influence and upside.
It's not just sentiment either. Inflow also matters. BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust - launched just months ago - has already outpaced their iShares Gold Trust in assets under management. Let that sink in - a Bitcoin ETF that didn't exist last Christmas has now outgrown a gold product that's been around for nearly two decades!
Rewriting portfolio logic
Data in an update from Kaiko this month shows that portfolios holding 5-10% Bitcoin could outperform traditional 60/40 mixes between stocks and bonds. without dramatically increasing volatility. In fact, Bitcoin's realised volatility hasn't exceeded 60% since early 2023 - a far cry from the meme coin mayhem days.What's more, Bitcoin's Sharpe ratio (a measure of risk-adjusted returns) has trended consistently above 0, peaking at over 4 last year. According to the update, "A Sharpe ratio between 0 and 1 indicates low risk and low reward, while anything over 2 is considered very good. Essentially this means BTC offers good risk-adjusted returns."
Source: May update from Kaiko
It's early days, but the data is starting to hint that Bitcoin can help enhance portfolio performance without meaningfully increasing volatility and its risk-adjusted returns have become increasingly compelling. In other words, the asset everyone says is "too risky" is exactly what helps de-risk an outdated portfolio model.
Store of value…or something bigger?
Source: Google Finance
The sad and often ignored truth is that most people's money is probably losing ground against the USD. On the other hand, Bitcoin has gained legitimacy as a store of value - not just for institutions, but for everyday investors. Once laughed off as 'internet money', it's now being considered by pension funds and sovereign wealth arms in markets where inflation is eroding real returns. And even against the mighty USD, Bitcoin is quietly asserting dominance and its scarcity is looking more like a feature than a bug.
But calling Bitcoin just a store of value may be underselling its potential. Increasingly, it is being seen as a base layer for an alternative financial system immune to political manipulation and currency debasement. In this future, it's not just protecting value anymore; it's redefining how value is stored, transferred and trusted in a world that's losing faith in legacy systems.
Belief powers its price - but belief is growing up
In the past, Bitcoin's price was often a speculative surge with little real-world logic. Now, ETF demand, corporate treasuries and macro hedges are driving the moves. The story is shifting and belief is still there, but now it's backed by cold, hard capital.
That's why when someone says, "Bitcoin just doesn't make sense," my response is: it's not supposed to; not in the old way anyway.
Because Bitcoin isn't here to follow the rules - it's here to remind us they've changed.
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