Farage as PM could push independence support close to 60%, poll suggests
A new poll suggests that Nigel Farage becoming prime minister could push support for Scottish independence to 58%.
The survey by Norstat for the Sunday Times, which spoke to 1,007 Scots between May 27 and May 30, showed support for separation currently sits at 54% in Scotland.
However, if Reform UK were to win the next general election, that figure could reach 60%, and some believe it should be the tipping point for another referendum.
The figure rose from 50% in the last Norstat poll in January.
The highest support for independence reached in recent years is 58%, according to an Ipsos Scotland poll for STV News in the early months of the pandemic. Nicola Sturgeon received plaudits for her handling of COVID-19.
However, the increase comes as support for the SNP continues to fall ahead of next year's Holyrood elections. The party dropped two percentage points in both the constituency and regional list votes to 33% and 28%, respectively.
Labour's support rose slightly to 19% in constituencies and 18% in Scotland's regions.
But Reform UK would see a surge if the poll were to reflect the returns seen next May, with Farage's party jumping to 18% in constituencies and 16% on the list—up two and three percentage points, respectively.
Meanwhile, the Scottish Tories dropped two points to 13% locally and remained at 15% in the regions.
The figures come ahead of a by-election in Lanarkshire this week, after the death of Scottish Government minister Christina McKelvie.
According to polling expert Professor Sir John Curtice, in projections for the Sunday Times, John Swinney was on track to win an unprecedented fifth term in office for his party next year, securing 54 seats.
Labour would drop to 20 seats, while Reform would win 18 in Scotland's first full political test.
Meanwhile, the Tories would drop from the second biggest party to the fourth, with just 17 MSPs, followed by the Lib Dems on 11 and the Greens on nine.
The poll also looked at Westminster voting intentions, with the SNP recording 31% of the vote, followed by Reform surging into second on 21% and Labour dropping 15 points from last year's election to 20%.
The Conservatives sit at 12%, while 8% said they would vote for the Lib Dems.
But despite leaping into second, Nigel Farage's party would not return a single MP, the polling expert said, with the SNP rising to 30, Labour falling to 16 and the Lib Dems and Tories remaining on six and five respectively.
SNP depute leader Keith Brown said his party has 'momentum' and Labour has lost Thursday's by-election in Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse.
'In government, Labour has taken away the winter fuel payment, cut £5bn of support for disabled people and watched on as energy bills rose by £150,' he said.
'With an SNP Government, the people of Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse are getting action on what matters to them: bringing back the universal winter fuel payment, record funding for our NHS, and key costs lower, with peak rail fares scrapped and lower income tax for the majority of taxpayers.
'The Labour Party has let you down and Farage is trying to stoke division, but the SNP is always on your side.'
Scottish Labour's deputy leader Jackie Baillie said: 'Scotland has been let down for too long by this tired and out-of-touch SNP government.
'After 18 years in charge, the SNP has left our NHS at breaking point, our economy flatlining and our schools tumbling down the international league tables.
'This week the people of Hamilton, Larkhall and Stonehouse will get a chance to call time on SNP failure and choose a new direction with Scottish Labour.
'It's clear the SNP does not deserve to win this by-election and only Scottish Labour can beat them.'
Get all the latest news from around the country Follow STV News
Scan the QR code on your mobile device for all the latest news from around the country
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
South Wales Argus
24 minutes ago
- South Wales Argus
Letter: Newport not at forefront of industrial revolution
It was mainly private money that was the impetus, not like the nationalisation and never-ending government subsidies that have continued and are still continuing since the end of the Second World War. Although I concede that of necessity, at that time governments had to be involved with the restart of the economy. I note that the Welsh Government has an investment, or should that be another subsidy, of £7.5 million in their Flexible Skills Programme (Argus 22nd May) for training courses. Why aren't companies training more apprentices instead of relying on the taxpayers to fund those schemes? Perhaps Jessica Morden and her fellow Labour politicians should start asking, although they might not hear the answers they want, bearing in mind the present occupiers of Westminster. Newport
South Wales Guardian
37 minutes ago
- South Wales Guardian
Vital routes to be protected as part of buses overhaul
Councils in England will put strict requirements in place before 'socially necessary' routes can be changed or cancelled, the department said. This is aimed at services to locations such as hospitals and schools. The measure is part of the Government's Bus Services Bill, which reached its second reading in the House of Commons on Monday. This will lead to an overhaul of buses, such as by giving all local transport authorities new powers to run their own services. The Government will also reduce some of the red tape involved in bus franchising, including reducing the minimum period between local areas taking control of services and being allowed to start operations. Transport Secretary Heidi Alexander said: 'We're committed to giving local leaders the power to shape the bus services their communities rely on. 'Our Bus Services Bill is a big step forward, protecting vital services that people depend on to get to work, school or essential appointments. 'We have taken a decisive step towards better buses, building on our £1 billion investment to improve and maintain bus services, keeping people connected, driving up living standards and growing the economy.' Ben Plowden, of lobby group the Campaign for Better Transport, said: 'Buses are the most-used form of public transport. 'Preserving vital bus services has long been central to our campaigning, so the new protections in the Bus Services Bill are very welcome indeed. 'Protecting existing services, and identifying and filling gaps in the network, is the way to ensure everyone can access opportunities and stay connected.' Conservative shadow transport secretary Gareth Bacon attacked the Bus Services Bill as 'an ideological move that threatens essential services'. He said: 'They scrapped the £2 fare cap, slashed support for routes, and now want to strip away safeguards so councils can seize control of networks they aren't capable of operating. 'This is about Labour clinging to a fantasy of municipal socialism, whatever the cost to those who rely on local transport. Without the requirement to prove any benefit to passengers, Labour-run councils will be free to run yet another public service into the ground. 'We're not opposed to local decision-making. But this Bill offers no real investment, no credible delivery model, and no route to better services.'
South Wales Guardian
37 minutes ago
- South Wales Guardian
Trade Secretary to push for timeline on US tariff exemption
Sir Keir Starmer and Mr Trump announced the broad terms of an agreement last month that would exempt the UK from some of the US president's tariffs on steel and cars while increasing market access for other goods. The Prime Minister hailed the announcement as a major achievement, saying the UK was the first nation to reach such an agreement with Mr Trump. But the details are still being worked out ahead of a formal deal, and the Government hopes for an agreement within weeks. Mr Reynolds is expected to discuss implementing the deal during talks with US trade representative Jamieson Greer in Paris on Tuesday, where he is attending a meeting of the OECD. That meeting comes amid uncertainty about the future of Mr Trump's tariffs after a US court last week ruled many of them unlawful, before an appeals court reinstated the levies pending a further hearing. Last week also saw Mr Trump announce that he would double tariffs on steel to 50%, starting on Wednesday, and it remains unclear how the UK would be affected. Mr Reynolds's visit to Paris is part of a three-day trip, during which he is expected to meet other trade ministers and attend a G7 ministerial meeting before heading to Brussels for meetings with his EU counterparts. During the trip, the Trade Secretary will argue that the UK is a dependable partner in an era of increasing global volatility. He said: 'Our deals with the US, EU and India are proof that the UK is the most connected country in the world to do business. Along with our modern industrial strategy, our Plan for Change is making the UK a safe, stable bet in uncertain times. 'We recognise our relationship with G7 allies and EU counterparts must continue to evolve and deliver a better trading environment for our businesses and exporters. 'That's why we want to wipe away costly, business-blocking barriers and open up opportunities to grow our economy, create jobs and put more money in people's pockets.' Andrew Griffith, Conservative shadow business secretary, said: 'Labour told the British public we had a deal with the US – but one month on there is no deal in sight, meaning British businesses and workers continue to suffer because of Labour's failed negotiations. 'After snatching the winter fuel payment, lying about not increasing taxes, and misleading the public by saying the US trade deal was done, the public will rightly not trust a word Labour says. 'As all the other political parties wrangle over how to spend more taxpayers money, only the Conservatives are committed to being responsible with the public finances.'
