Donald Trump Stimulus Check 2025: What Musk Exit Means for DOGE Dividend

Newsweek

2 days ago

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The future of the proposed $5,000 "DOGE Dividend" stimulus check faces uncertainty following Elon Musk's departure from the Trump administration and the end of his tenure at the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE).
Musk announced his exit in late May, as the 130-day legal limit on special government employees approaches and concerns continue to mount over the impact of his government role on his business ventures.
President Donald Trump has confirmed that his administration will continue DOGE's central mission to root out "waste, fraud and abuse" from federal spending.
What Is the DOGE Dividend?
The "DOGE Dividend" was initially proposed as a one-time payment of $5,000 for eligible taxpayers. This "tax refund check," the brainchild of Azoria CEO James Fishback, was to be funded with 20 percent of the $2 trillion in federal budget cuts Musk said could be achieved back in October, meaning around $400 billion split between 79 million taxpaying households.
Fishback's idea received support from Musk and the tacit endorsement of Trump, who told attendees at an investment conference in February: "We're thinking about giving 20 percent back to the American citizens."
Elon Musk, wearing a DOGE hat, speaks to reporters in the Oval Office of the White House on May 30, 2025.
Elon Musk, wearing a DOGE hat, speaks to reporters in the Oval Office of the White House on May 30, 2025.Surveys revealed strong cross-party support for the idea, with 79 percent of Republicans and 60 percent of Democrats in favor.
Additionally, 24 percent of Democrats and 29 percent of independents said receiving the check would make them more likely to vote for a Republican congressional candidate.
However, in an interview with Newsweek, Fishback acknowledged that the eventual payments would depend on the actual level of savings achieved by DOGE and could be under the initially proposed figure. According to the calculations laid out by Fishback in February, the $175 billion in savings DOGE claims to have achieved would result in checks of just $2,200 per household if these were sent out today.
Newsweek reached out to Fishback and the White House via email for comment.
Savings Fall Short of Targets
As of Musk's departure, DOGE has reported $175 billion in savings through contract cancellations, the identification of fraud and improper payments, as well as workforce reductions. This represents a fraction of the $2 trillion goal originally envisioned by Musk, a figure that the Tesla CEO has walked back several times.
Numerous questions have been raised about the accuracy of the "wall of receipts" posted on DOGE's website and whether these cuts will result in savings. Analysis from the nonpartisan Partnership for Public Service recently found that the actions of DOGE could result in expenditures of $135 billion this fiscal year, due to the costs of lost productivity, rehirings and putting certain employees on paid leave.
Legislative and Economic Hurdles
There has been little information available on the status of the stimulus checks, including whether and when Americans can expect to receive them this year.
In addition to the question of whether DOGE can generate enough savings to fund the checks, congressional authorization would be required for the disbursement of any government funds. However, no formal legislation has been introduced.
"There's no appropriation for this," Elaine Kamarck, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution and former official in the Clinton White House, told CNBC in February.
"You cannot spend money without Congress telling you that you can spend money," Kamarck said. "That is illegal."
Musk himself said that it was "up to Congress and maybe the president too" as to whether any checks would be distributed. However, the DOGE dividend has so far failed to receive sufficient backing from Republicans in Congress.
"Politically that would be great for us," House Speaker Mike Johnson said of the checks at the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) in February. He added, though, that the GOP's focus should remain on managing America's $36 trillion deficit—"pay down the credit card"—before considering giving savings back to taxpayers.
Barring a significant upswing in legislative support, which is increasingly unlikely as Republicans grapple with the deficit-boosting implications of the One Big Beautiful Bill currently making its way through Congress, the future of DOGE stimulus is doubtful.
Economists have also warned that stimulus of this kind could worsen inflation, similar to the impact of the checks distributed during the COVID-19 pandemic.
"If inflation is already a concern, these checks could add fuel to the fire," financial planner Sarah Maitre told GoBankingRates in early May.
What Happens Next
With Musk's departure, the already weakened momentum behind the DOGE stimulus checks has waned. While Trump has not officially shelved the plan, the lack of action on Capitol Hill, combined with the gap between promised and achieved savings, leaves the future of the payment in question.