When Could The Atlantic Hurricane Season's First Storm Form?

Yahoo

23-05-2025

The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season "officially" arrives soon, and we're getting some hints as to when we might see the first tropical storm of the season form.
- We could see the season's first storm, named "Andrea", form as soon as the middle of June.
- That's because some long-range computer models suggest the tropical Atlantic Basin may come under the influence of rising air and lower wind shear from something called the Madden-Julian Oscillation. That's an environment supportive of thunderstorms, which are the building blocks of tropical storms.
- It's far too soon to be certain this will occur and where, but tropical development in June usually happens either in the western Caribbean Sea, Gulf of Mexico, or off the Southeast U.S. coast.
(MORE: 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook)
- In the satellite era, the season's first storm has developed most often in June. From 1966 through 2024, the average date of the first storm of hurricane season is June 10.
- Last year, Tropical Storm Alberto formed in the western Gulf on June 17.
- But as the graph below shows, there's considerable spread, especially recently. Only two of the past 10 hurricane seasons have had the first storm form in June. Five of those 10 years have had a May storm, including four straight years from 2018 through 2021.
(MORE: 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season Name List Includes One Newby)
- Occasionally, these first storms of the season can be impactful, especially given that they typically form closer to land early in the season.
- Last June, Tropical Storm Alberto produced flooding rain and 1 to 4 feet of storm surge along the coast of northeast Mexico and Texas.
- In 2010, Alex quickly strengthened from a late June tropical storm to a Category 2 hurricane before slamming into northeast Mexico with a surge, up to 35 inches of flooding rain and damaging winds.
Now – not in the days before a hurricane strikes – is a good time to refresh or develop a plan.
That includes knowing if you live in an evacuation zone, assembling a disaster kit at home, making your home as resilient as possible, checking on your insurance policy and making an inventory of your belongings.
Jonathan Erdman is a senior meteorologist at weather.com and has been covering national and international weather since 1996. Extreme and bizarre weather are his favorite topics. Reach out to him on Bluesky, X (formerly Twitter) and Facebook.