Fantasy Baseball Dynasty Stock Watch: Konnor Griffin, Luis Peña, Chase Burns headline first-half storylines

NBC Sports

2 days ago

With the midway point of the 2025 season rapidly approaching, it feels like the perfect time to take a 10,000 foot overview of the dynasty landscape, which is in the process of undergoing a dramatic overhaul. This week's Dynasty Stock Watch column identifies a handful of compelling prospect-related storylines and players that fantasy managers need to know entering the second half. We've spilled enough electronic ink across Rotoworld's wide range of fantasy baseball-related columns on household names like Roman Anthony and Jac Caglianone in recent weeks. This space digs a little deeper with a focus on the next wave of top prospects that are going to send shockwaves through the fantasy landscape in a couple years.
1) Konnor Griffin and Luis Peña have achieved top-10 dynasty prospect status.
Life comes at you fast. Griffin and Peña's meteoric ascents into the top-10 dynasty prospect stratosphere took than a half season as they've spent the past few months destroying the Low-A Florida State and Carolina Leagues, respectively, as two of its youngest position players. The fact that Griffin and Peña remain several hyperspace jumps, respectively, from the big leagues makes it challenging to forecast their long-term future. However, the pair look like potential future five-category impact fantasy contributors, which puts them in some lofty territory already.
Two Run Triple by SS Konnor Griffin @The_Marauders #LetsGoBucs pic.twitter.com/S53cm2NB73
The unmistakable indicators were there for Griffin when he showed up to spring training a couple months ago and immediately looked like one of the top prospects in baseball. The 19-year-old shortstop, who was selected ninth overall in the 2024 MLB Draft, has hit .317/.376/.519 with eight homers and 25 steals across 46 contests for Low-A Bradenton in a highly impressive professional debut. He leads the entire Florida State League in hits (60) while also ranking second in stolen bases and third in OPS (.895). It's not hyperbolic to say that he looks like a potential fantasy star based on his combination of talent and early-career production.
Luis Peña earns Carolina League Player of the Week 🏅 in his return to the @CarolinaMudcats lineup, lacing 2 home runs and a triple in 5 games!
Peña owns a 1.035 OPS in 17 games since the beginning of May and has stolen 10 bases in that span!#ThisIsMyCrew pic.twitter.com/p0ClEnSnKz
Meanwhile, Peña's long-term stock has risen more than any other prospect in the dynasty landscape as he's torn the cover off the ball in his stateside debut, slashing .344/.407/.563 with five homers and 24 steals across 32 games for Low-A Carolina. The 18-year-old phenom, who put up strong numbers last year in the Dominican Summer League, has displayed above-average plate skills and a power/speed upside combination on-par with other elite shortstop prospects like Sebastian Walcott, Leo De Vries and Jesús Made. According to Baseball America's Geoff Pontes back in late May, Peña is among a handful of prospects in the entire minors that have seen a significant uptick in 90th percentile exit velocity, jumping from 99.9 mph last year to an impressive 106.5 mark. There's a bit of an anchoring effect going on right now where it might take some additional time for some dynasty managers to truly value him in the same neighborhood as those other elite prospects, which creates a buying opportunity.
2) In a vast prospect ocean filled with uncertainty, Kevin McGonigle represents a safe harbor.
From a purely probabilistic standpoint, McGonigle's combination of elite contact skills and consistent hard contact make him one of the most likely prospects to make the leap to a consistent fantasy contributor at the highest level. The 20-year-old supplemental first-round selection from the 2023 MLB Draft missed one month at the outset of the year after suffering an ankle injury in his season debut, but he's been destroying the Midwest League ever since, hitting .444 (20-for-45) with 10 extra-base hits through 12 games this season for High-A West Michigan. He's still growing into some additional over-the-fence pop, but he looks like the quintessential high-floor fantasy prospect with the potential to emerge as an extremely impactful multi-category impact bat, especially if he manages to stick at second base, which remains one of the weakest position groups in the fantasy landscape. He lacks the stratospheric power/speed combo upside of a Roman Anthony, Walcott, Made, De Vries, Griffin or Peña, but he's rapidly cementing his status as a borderline top-10 dynasty prospect.
3) No pitching prospects improved their stock more than Chase Burns and Jacob Misiorowski during the first half.
Let's start with Burns, who has blossomed into arguably the top pitching prospect in baseball over the last few months during his electrifying professional debut, recording a microscopic 1.93 ERA, 0.79 WHIP and 69/9 K/BB ratio across 46 2/3 innings (10 starts) between High-A Dayton and Double-A Chattanooga. The hard-throwing 22-year-old righty, who was the second-overall pick in the 2024 MLB Draft, has put himself squarely in the Bubba Chandler and Andrew Painter tier of elite starting pitching prospects. The typical risk/reward caveats apply here, as they would with any pitcher, but he's clearly one of the most promising long-term gambles in the dynasty landscape based on his early-career performance in the upper minors.
Can you feel the Burns? 🔥
MLB's No. 11 overall prospect, Chase Burns (@Reds), completes a professional-high six scoreless frames for the Double-A @ChattLookouts. pic.twitter.com/6grcjc8L6U
We still need to see the noticeable gains Misiorowski has made in the control department this season, slashing his walk rate from 14.4 percent last year to a more respectable 11.9 percent, stick in the majors if he's going to be a truly impactful fantasy starter. The triple-digit velocity and strikeouts have always been there thanks to his potent fastball/curveball combo, but he's made serious strides this season at the Triple-A level, compiling a sparkling 2.47 ERA, 1.10 WHIP and 73/28 K/BB ratio across 58 1/3 innings (12 appearances, 11 starts). The risk that he wouldn't succeed as a start, eventually winding up as a high-leverage reliever, made him one of the more challenging pitching prospects to value for dynasty purposes. He'll continue rising in long-term rankings lists as the likelihood increases that he's going to make it as a starting pitcher.
4) Arjun Nimmala and Bryce Rainer are among the fastest rising hitting prospects in the lower minors entering the second half.
Unfortunately, Rainer suffered a potentially serious shoulder injury earlier this week and could be facing a lengthy absence. There should be some clarity on his status at some point in the coming days. Prior to the injury, Rainer was ascending into top-25 territory from a dynasty rankings perspective based on his elite exit velocity data relative to his age and level, recording a sky-high 108 mph 90th percentile average exit velocity, per MLB Pipeline. The 19-year-old shortstop, who was selected 11th overall in the 2024 MLB Draft, was hitting .288/.383/.448 with five homers and nine steal across 35 games for Low-A Lakeland in his professional debut. Detroit's front office has done an outstanding job in the Scott Harris era with Rainer looking like another potential franchise cornerstone someday.
Speaking of future franchise icons, Nimmala has a chance to be the next one for Toronto in a couple years. The 19-year-old prodigy has looked like an elite fantasy prospect this season at High-A Vancouver, slashing .288/.376/.513 with nine homers and five steals across 48 games. He ranks among the top five in the entire Northwest League this season in hits (55), home runs (nine) and OPS (.889) despite being one of its youngest position players. He's made one of the biggest jumps over the past few months from a long-term dynasty rankings standpoint, ascending to top-25 range status heading into midseason.
5) There's no shortage of interesting pitching prospects in the dynasty landscape.
Throwing a dart at the second half of Rotoworld's upcoming Top 500 Dynasty Rankings update typically results in hitting a compelling pitching prospect. They're not quite ready to make the leap to top-50 range status yet in most cases, but they're all compelling. Blue Jays phenom Trey Yesavage might be the closest as he continues to excel in his professional debut. The Athletics have a pair of intriguing arms in southpaw Gage Jump and righty Luis Morales, who have looked extremely impressive this season. Nationals flame-thrower Travis Sykora is healthy again and missing bats. Logan Henderson has emerged as a viable big-league option for the Brewers. The Mets might have the most intriguing arm in this territory in strikeout machine Jonah Tong, who continues to dominate at the Double-A level.
We haven't even touched on guys who deserve a mention in this space like Robby Snelling (Marlins), Nolan McLean (Mets), Grant Taylor (White Sox), Ryan Sloan (Mariners) and Payton Tolle (Red Sox). Dynasty managers are understandably leery when it comes to pitching prospects, but there are compelling cases for rolling the dice on a bunch of names right now.
Bonus) My personal affinity for Aroon Escobar is reaching unhealthy levels.
Aroon Escobar went deep twice last night! 🚀🚀 He now has 10 home runs this season. pic.twitter.com/2Uc9vcGZR2
We all have a favorite prospect. Avoiding personal biases or attachments to any singular prospect is an essential component of my overall process when it comes to compiling Rotoworld's dynasty rankings. Change is inevitable and we need to be open to changing our opinions as uncomfortable as it can be in some cases. With that important caveat out of the way, let's talk about Escobar, who is rapidly evolving into one of my favorite prospects in baseball. The 20-year-old infielder has become one of the Phillies top prospects over the last few months, hitting .324/.421/.533 with 10 homers and five steals over 45 games for Low-A Clearwater. He's shown an ability to make consistent hard contact without selling out from an approach standpoint to get to it in games and he looks like a potential impact fantasy contributor at second base in a couple years.