UFC 316: Julianna Peña vs. Kayla Harrison odds, picks and predictions

USA Today

15 hours ago

UFC 316: Julianna Peña vs. Kayla Harrison odds, picks and predictions
In a 5-round women's bantamweight championship bout on the main card, Julianna Peña and Kayla Harrison meet Saturday at UFC 316 at Prudential Center in Newark, New Jersey. The bout is expected to start approximately at 11:45 p.m. ET. Early prelims begin at 6 p.m. ET (ESPN+ / Disney+) with the prelims set for 8 p.m. ET (ESPN / ESPN+ / Disney+) and the main card slated for 10 p.m. ET (Pay-Per-View). Let's analyze BetMGM Sportsbook's UFC odds around the UFC 316: Peña vs. Harrison odds, and make our expert UFC picks and predictions.
Records: Peña (13-5-0) | Harrison (18-1-0)
Peña picked up the championship belt in December 2011 from Amanda Nunes at UFC 269, posting a Round-2 submission win. But then Peña lost the strap in the rematch at UFC 277 in a unanimous-decision setback July 2022. She was expected to face Nunes in a trilogy fight at UFC 289 in June 2023, but Peña suffered broken ribs in training and had to pull out. 'The Venezuelan Vixen' bounced back at UFC 307 after more than a 2-year layoff, topping Raquel Pennington for the belt via split decision at UFC 307 Oct. 5, 2024.
After 3 consecutive fights ending via submission from October 2020 to December 2021 -- Peña went 2-1 -- she had back-to-back 5-round decisions -- the rematch loss to Nunes and the title win vs. Pennington. Peña has actually gone the distance 5 times in her past 9 bouts with her last KO/TKO win coming back in April 2015. So, that method can mostly be ignored when it comes to wagering.
Harrison gets a crack at the title just 3 fights into her UFC career. She opened with a Round-2 submission of Holly Holm at UFC 300 April 2024, before stopping Ketlen Vieira at UFC 307 via unanimous decision last October. Harrison has 3 consecutive victories across all levels since losing a title bout in the 2022 PFL World Championships to Larissa Pacheco Nov. 25, 2022. Harrison has gone the distance 3 times in her past 4 pro bouts.
The southpaw Harrison is 34 years old, and she has a 4.87-to-3.25 significant-strikes-landed-per-minute advantage in this matchup. However, Peña has a tremendous 56.25% takedown-accuracy percentage, and she does great work on the canvas. The champ also holds a 3-inch reach advantage, so she'll be able to push and pull the challenger out at her discretion.
UFC 316: Peña vs. Harrison odds
Provided by BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated at 1:43 a.m. ET.
Fight result (2-way line) : Peña +475 (bet $100 to win $475) | Harrison -700 (bet $700 to win $100)
: Peña +475 (bet $100 to win $475) | Harrison -700 (bet $700 to win $100) Total rounds: 3.5 rounds (Over +100 | Under -135)
3.5 rounds (Over +100 | Under -135) Will the fight go the distance? (Yes +175 | No +250)
UFC 316: Peña vs. Harrison picks and predictions
It's time for Harrison (-700) to ascend to the throne as champ, but it isn't as huge of a disparity as the sportsbooks are making it out to be. Peña (+475) is a huge underdog, which is stunning considering she is the current title holder.
We saw Peña as a giant +600 underdog against Nunes at UFC 269 when she picked up the surprising round-2 submission win. She lost to Nunes in the rematch but rebounded to regain the title vs. Pennington. She has been through the emotions and been through the wars, which will be an advantage against Harrison, who just doesn't have that experience to tap into.
PASS.
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Peña has 3 submission results in the past 5 fights, and 4 in the previous 7 outings since January 2017. For Harrison, she has 2 submission results in her past 5 pro fights. As such, betting SUBMISSION (+100) in "how the fight will end' method is a strong value at even-money ... and we don't need to worry about who is the winner.
If you like the current champ, PEÑA BY SUBMISSION (+1200) on the 7-way line is a low-risk, high-reward possibility.
OVER 3.5 ROUNDS (+100) is even-money is also a good play. Harrison is an upstart, and Peña has been going deep lately. She has gone the distance in the past 2 fights, and Harrison has gone the distance in 3 of the past 4 pro bouts.
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