Could Reform overtake Labour and SNP in the North East?

The Herald Scotland

10-07-2025

Scottish Labour and the SNP would be wise to get their houses in order, or the North East of Scotland will be shaded blue-green in 2026.
While rural Aberdeenshire has long been a Conservative bastion, the SNP has challenged them in recent decades, returning parliamentarians throughout the region, including former First Minister Alex Salmond.
However, the spectre of Reform is posed to undo the small mercies received by the Nats last year, when they won three seats in Aberdeen and Aberdeenshire despite being wiped out nearly everywhere else.
I can remember the oddity of it all, as SNP councillors and activists cheered the election of Aberdeenshire North and Moray East MP Seamus Logan sometime around four in the morning on the 5th of July, 2024.
Of course, it soon became apparent that Mr Logan owed his seat in part to massive Tory defections to Reform. The insurgents received 14.6% of the vote, as Conservative boss Douglas Ross saw his vote share drop by 15.6%.
Douglas Ross lost his MP seat in part due to a Reform insurgency. (Image: Jane Barlow/ PA wire) And Scottish Labour has been much-diminished across the region, a far cry from their once-dominant reign over Aberdeen City Council, which they held between 1974 and 2003 alongside two red MPs.
For example, at the last Holyrood election, Labour candidates failed to gain more than 25% of the vote in all nine North East constituencies.
Now, local councillors, clearly sensing the changing winds, have jumped from the Tories to Reform en masse; with six in Aberdeenshire and one in Aberdeen at last count.
Ex-MP Ross Thomson has become the latest high-profile North East Tory to defect.
And as oil and gas job losses in the area mount, local frustration and anger has only increased.
Mr Farage and his band of rascals are well placed to mop up votes from a disaffected electorate, a reality portended by a visit he paid to the Granite City last month.
In the small villages and hamlets of Aberdeenshire, cuts to library services and sheltered housing have led to false rumours of busloads of illegal migrants being dropped off in Peterhead and Fraserburgh.
In Aberdeen, 250 jobs at Harbour Energy are to be axed, and energy giant Chevron is planning to leave the city after fifty years.
Labour and the SNP have failed to respond to these challenges effectively, opening the door for a Reform surge next year.
According to a new report, the Scottish Government's shiny 'Just Transition Fund' has led to the creation of only 110 jobs.
The £43m fund was set up in 2021 by then-First Minister Nicola Sturgeon, but recent analysis has found that many of the jobs created are 'temporary, project-based, or contingent on further investment'.
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Meanwhile, Labour has resisted calls from North East business chiefs to scrap the energy windfall tax, part of a 78% tariff rate on oil and gas companies.
The much ballyhooed Great British Energy, promised to be a magic bullet for the region's prospects, has yet to materialise.
Even if the SNP maintain their majorities in individual constituencies, Reform will doubtless return several MSPs on the regional list, which included four Tories in 2021.
Working people in the North East are calling out for change. They want job security and essential services, public spaces and affordable housing.
And they don't care if they burn down the whole system for a chance to get what they want.