One thing that won't be in state budget
The Allan government is set to unveil its state budget on Tuesday, with analysts anticipating debt to hit $188bn by 2028 as the state tries to claw back spending amid a budget blowout.
Premier Jacinta Allan said on Sunday the Victorian public was demanding a 'responsible budget that sets up our state for the future' and relief for the cost-of-living crisis.
Treasurer Jaclyn Symes will hand down her first budget on Tuesday and is anticipated to present a projected $600m operating surplus for the 2025-26 budget.
This would mark the first time the state's balance sheet has been in surplus since the Covid-19 pandemic.
Despite a projected positive balance sheet, the surplus was $900m less than the forecast presented in December last year, the Herald Sun reported. Premier Jacinta Allan said Victorians were demanding a 'responsible budget' from the state. NewsWire / Valeriu Campan Credit: News Corp Australia
The surpass will also likely be overshadowed by the cost of government wages and major infrastructure projects, including the Suburban Rail Look, which has prompted the federal government to put the Victorian government on notice.
In the lead-up to the budget release, the Victorian government has announced it would allocate $5bn for public transport, $61m in stamp duty tax cuts, $772m to expand prison capacity in the wake of its updated bail laws, a $976m injection for regional roads and free public transport for seniors and people under 18. Treasurer Jaclyn Symes will debut her first state budget on Tuesday. NewsWire / Andrew Henshaw Credit: News Corp Australia
On Sunday night, Ms Symes said there would be 'more surprises to come' but confirmed there were no new or increased taxes.
'The message I heard loud and clear from the business sector, industry sector was no more taxes,' Ms Symes said per the Herald Sun.
'There is nothing in the budget that changes the tax settings tomorrow.
'I am pleased you will not see new taxes in tomorrow's budget.'
However, this does not include the emergency services levy, which was passed through the upper house on Thursday and is intended to increase funds for the State Emergency Services (SES), triple-0 and the state control centre.
Analysis from Victoria's independent Parliamentary Budget Office indicated that nearly $22m in funding or 368 government programs were set to end this year unless Ms Symes announced an extension on Tuesday. Ms Allan said money would be invested in 'what matters most;'. NewsWire / Valeriu Campan Credit: News Corp Australia
Some of the funding that could find itself on the chopping block includes $2.8m for mental health programs, a $32m Supporting our GPs program and support for alcohol and drug services for Aboriginal Victorians.
On Thursday last week, Ms Allan remained tight-lipped about the programs potentially facing the axe and said the government was 'focused on every dollar being invested in what matters most to working people and families'.
Ahead of the budget update, Ms Symes kept quiet about the forecast net debt of $188bn over the forward estimates but confirmed it would not surpass $200bn.
'The aggregates will be revealed tomorrow,' she said. 'They will not start with a two.
'From here, net debt will continue to fall as a share of the economy, and we will see continued surpluses in the years to come – allowing us to continue to provide services and infrastructure that Victorians need.'
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It highlights the "what" and "where" help, support and the removal of headwinds would be most relevant and useful. ASBFEO's 14 steps to energise enterprise sets out the "how". What the May Pulse tells me, and should tell us all, is - we must continue to energise enterprise. We need to create conditions that encourage enthusiastic entrepreneurs with the spark of an idea to transform it into a business, to help a new business flourish and grow, to encourage investment and to employ that extra person. Small and family businesses make a vital contribution to our national prosperity, economy, wellbeing and community. We need them to be growing, employing, thriving and innovating to benefit us all. ASBFEO recently released our fourth Small Business Pulse - a health-check on the small business operating environment. It recorded a microscopic improvement of 0.1 per cent this quarter. This is the first quarterly increase since August 2022 after a significant deterioration that occurred in the post-COVID period. Over the past 12 months small business conditions deteriorated by 0.9 per cent, but the small increase we are now seeing, is showing some modest signs that conditions seem to be stabilising. It shows that small and family business owners are digging deep to finds ways forward. The Pulse also reveals specific areas where targeted policy and approaches, more attuned to the real-life challenges being faced and opportunities being pursued, would make a real positive difference. It may be a barely noticeable improvement in the small business trading environment, but it does hopefully signal that the worst is behind us and a first step toward a positive shift in economic conditions for small and family businesses. With some input-cost inflation starting to settle, the pressures on margins and profitability remain very real. We are seeing a shift toward re-pricing to restore profitability and small business owners thinking about containing costs and what growth opportunities may be available. The May Pulse highlights that cash flow is still a major concern for small businesses. And while many feel the worst may be over, my office is seeing increasing numbers of requests for assistance with payment disputes. This type of dispute, that often leaves a small business unpaid, can push the business to the economic edge, creating stress and heartache for the owner. Being able to get behind the businesses doing the right thing by making employment, tax and supplier payments in a timely way, would be helped by a "good business pays" recognition. This accreditation would honour those businesses meeting their reporting and payment obligations. It is just one of the practical and positive "14 steps" ASBFEO has been championing to "energise enterprise". The Pulse data also suggests that while there are still some areas of unease in the small business environment, small business owners are looking at many factors when thinking about their operating margins. This includes reviewing input costs, pricing for their products or services, their range, what are customers saying and what opportunities are available to increase sales. We are seeing an increase in small businesses researching importing and exporting opportunities in the May Pulse, with most of these enquires about engaging in trade across the Asia-Pacific region. This is exciting because small and family businesses are now starting to think about what the future looks like for them and their business. They are potentially making plans to grow their businesses and how best to tap into new markets. Are we seeing the start of a gentle wind in the sails of resilient small business owners who have valiantly held on during an extended period of difficult headwinds? Or is it simply more remarkable relentlessness of enterprising women and men? In the May Pulse, we have seen a modest increase in small businesses considering hiring extra staff. A persistently tight labour market and difficulty finding suitable staff have been hampering recruitment efforts, but signs point to a shift in concern from availablity to affordability. And let's not be swayed by the nonsense that above-inflation increases in payroll costs without productivity improvement is somehow helpful, at a time too many small business owners are battling to keep the lights on. Small business owners have continued to report in this quarter how difficult it is to navigate the complex workplace laws, with most anxious about getting it wrong. This is a real worry, and an example of why we need to make sure that we take a more proactive approach to "right-sizing" regulation. Regulators and governments need to move away from the one-size-fits-all regulatory models. Regulations that are "right-sized" and fit-for-purpose will help small businesses meet their compliance obligations without fear. Interestingly, small businesses are also looking to maximise their business opportunities by deploying digital capabilities and using artificial intelligence to source new and exciting opportunities to entice and delight their customers, and to grow their business. Small business owners are also looking at how these technology tools can help them find more value and customers, and to navigate the complex compliance landscape. Better digital know-how and practical enterprise-specific tech support that is focused on business systems, digital solutions and data management is another of the 14 Steps we have been advocating that will help support small and family business to grow and be competitive. Many small and family businesses have been impacted by flood, cyclones and drought during the past 12 months. The Pulse highlights that temporary closure, lost income, and property damage remain issues for those businesses caught in natural disasters. But we need to be mindful that these issues and any ongoing insurance difficulties are likely to affect these and many other businesses in the years to come. So, our focus needs to be not only the immediate support and help needed, but on what those small and family businesses need in the months and years to come for a sustainable and durable recovery. The ASBFEO Pulse combines traditional and non-traditional data to provide a powerful indicator of small business health right here, right now. Harvesting alternative data such as internet searches to compliment official statistics gives a more nuanced understanding of the small business ecosystem. It provides an earlier insight into changes in the trading environment, especially when conditions are shifting quickly. The ASBFEO Small Business Pulse helps us to see into the corners of the small business community, while reflecting the reality of small business owners' everyday experience. It highlights the "what" and "where" help, support and the removal of headwinds would be most relevant and useful. ASBFEO's 14 steps to energise enterprise sets out the "how". What the May Pulse tells me, and should tell us all, is - we must continue to energise enterprise. We need to create conditions that encourage enthusiastic entrepreneurs with the spark of an idea to transform it into a business, to help a new business flourish and grow, to encourage investment and to employ that extra person. Small and family businesses make a vital contribution to our national prosperity, economy, wellbeing and community. We need them to be growing, employing, thriving and innovating to benefit us all. ASBFEO recently released our fourth Small Business Pulse - a health-check on the small business operating environment. It recorded a microscopic improvement of 0.1 per cent this quarter. This is the first quarterly increase since August 2022 after a significant deterioration that occurred in the post-COVID period. Over the past 12 months small business conditions deteriorated by 0.9 per cent, but the small increase we are now seeing, is showing some modest signs that conditions seem to be stabilising. It shows that small and family business owners are digging deep to finds ways forward. The Pulse also reveals specific areas where targeted policy and approaches, more attuned to the real-life challenges being faced and opportunities being pursued, would make a real positive difference. It may be a barely noticeable improvement in the small business trading environment, but it does hopefully signal that the worst is behind us and a first step toward a positive shift in economic conditions for small and family businesses. With some input-cost inflation starting to settle, the pressures on margins and profitability remain very real. We are seeing a shift toward re-pricing to restore profitability and small business owners thinking about containing costs and what growth opportunities may be available. The May Pulse highlights that cash flow is still a major concern for small businesses. And while many feel the worst may be over, my office is seeing increasing numbers of requests for assistance with payment disputes. This type of dispute, that often leaves a small business unpaid, can push the business to the economic edge, creating stress and heartache for the owner. Being able to get behind the businesses doing the right thing by making employment, tax and supplier payments in a timely way, would be helped by a "good business pays" recognition. This accreditation would honour those businesses meeting their reporting and payment obligations. It is just one of the practical and positive "14 steps" ASBFEO has been championing to "energise enterprise". The Pulse data also suggests that while there are still some areas of unease in the small business environment, small business owners are looking at many factors when thinking about their operating margins. This includes reviewing input costs, pricing for their products or services, their range, what are customers saying and what opportunities are available to increase sales. We are seeing an increase in small businesses researching importing and exporting opportunities in the May Pulse, with most of these enquires about engaging in trade across the Asia-Pacific region. This is exciting because small and family businesses are now starting to think about what the future looks like for them and their business. They are potentially making plans to grow their businesses and how best to tap into new markets. Are we seeing the start of a gentle wind in the sails of resilient small business owners who have valiantly held on during an extended period of difficult headwinds? Or is it simply more remarkable relentlessness of enterprising women and men? In the May Pulse, we have seen a modest increase in small businesses considering hiring extra staff. A persistently tight labour market and difficulty finding suitable staff have been hampering recruitment efforts, but signs point to a shift in concern from availablity to affordability. And let's not be swayed by the nonsense that above-inflation increases in payroll costs without productivity improvement is somehow helpful, at a time too many small business owners are battling to keep the lights on. Small business owners have continued to report in this quarter how difficult it is to navigate the complex workplace laws, with most anxious about getting it wrong. This is a real worry, and an example of why we need to make sure that we take a more proactive approach to "right-sizing" regulation. Regulators and governments need to move away from the one-size-fits-all regulatory models. Regulations that are "right-sized" and fit-for-purpose will help small businesses meet their compliance obligations without fear. Interestingly, small businesses are also looking to maximise their business opportunities by deploying digital capabilities and using artificial intelligence to source new and exciting opportunities to entice and delight their customers, and to grow their business. Small business owners are also looking at how these technology tools can help them find more value and customers, and to navigate the complex compliance landscape. Better digital know-how and practical enterprise-specific tech support that is focused on business systems, digital solutions and data management is another of the 14 Steps we have been advocating that will help support small and family business to grow and be competitive. Many small and family businesses have been impacted by flood, cyclones and drought during the past 12 months. The Pulse highlights that temporary closure, lost income, and property damage remain issues for those businesses caught in natural disasters. But we need to be mindful that these issues and any ongoing insurance difficulties are likely to affect these and many other businesses in the years to come. So, our focus needs to be not only the immediate support and help needed, but on what those small and family businesses need in the months and years to come for a sustainable and durable recovery. The ASBFEO Pulse combines traditional and non-traditional data to provide a powerful indicator of small business health right here, right now. Harvesting alternative data such as internet searches to compliment official statistics gives a more nuanced understanding of the small business ecosystem. It provides an earlier insight into changes in the trading environment, especially when conditions are shifting quickly. The ASBFEO Small Business Pulse helps us to see into the corners of the small business community, while reflecting the reality of small business owners' everyday experience. It highlights the "what" and "where" help, support and the removal of headwinds would be most relevant and useful. ASBFEO's 14 steps to energise enterprise sets out the "how". What the May Pulse tells me, and should tell us all, is - we must continue to energise enterprise. We need to create conditions that encourage enthusiastic entrepreneurs with the spark of an idea to transform it into a business, to help a new business flourish and grow, to encourage investment and to employ that extra person. Small and family businesses make a vital contribution to our national prosperity, economy, wellbeing and community. We need them to be growing, employing, thriving and innovating to benefit us all.
