Assisted dying will kill as many as 4,500 people, impact review finds

Telegraph

02-05-2025

More than 4,500 people are expected to end their lives in the decade after the potential legalisation of the Assisted Dying Bill.
A long-awaited government document, published on Friday, is the first time Whitehall has attached a financial figure to assisted dying.
There could be between 1,042 and 4,559 assisted deaths in 10 years, saving the taxpayer up to £90 million in healthcare and benefits and pensions payments, according to the impact assessment of the proposed legislation.
The proposed legislation would allow terminally ill adults in England and Wales, with fewer than six months to live, to apply for an assisted death, subject to approval by two doctors and a panel featuring a social worker, a lawyer and psychiatrist.
However, the granular nature of the Government's predicted cost savings has led disability rights campaigners to fear that people's 'lives will be seen as expendable'.
Liz Carr, a disabled actor who starred in the BBC crime drama Silent Witness, said the impact assessment's conclusion 'only confirms the fears of many disabled people that our lives will be expendable'.
Calling the law 'dangerous', she said she feared becoming a 'burden on public services'.
She added: 'The treatment of disabled, ill and older people during the early days of Covid should serve as a warning to the very real consequences of acting on these all-too-common money-saving prejudices.
The analysis found up to £59.6 million could be saved by the NHS in 10 years – with a further reduction of £18.3 million in state pension payments.
More specifically, officials projected savings of up to £6.2 million in attendance allowance (a benefit for elderly people who need help with personal care or supervision) and £3.1 million in unspent personal independence payments in the first decade.
Earlier deaths were forecast to cut care home profits by as much as £4.61 million.
Paralympic racer Baroness Tanni Grey-Thompson said the report 'highlights how assisted dying would put disabled and other vulnerable people at grave risk by providing financial incentives to an already overburdened and under-resourced NHS to offer assisted dying as a 'treatment option'.'
The gold medal winner said: 'If Parliament were to legalise assisted dying in light of these findings, it would further give the impression that it views the most vulnerable as a drain on the public purse.'
The 149-page assessment into the Terminally Ill Adults (End of Life) Bill was published exactly a fortnight ahead of the next Commons debate on the proposed new law.
If enacted, the assisted dying service would be up and running in England and Wales from October 2029 – with between 164 and 787 assisted deaths in its first half-year of operation.
This would rise to between 1,042 and 4,559 assisted deaths by year 10 – assuming 60 per cent of applicants go through with the procedure.
Cost savings to the NHS could be significant. The report said: 'Assuming all assisted deaths occur after two months, reducing the length of life by four months, then it is estimated that 79 per cent of the associated healthcare costs (for months four to one) are no longer required.'
This would result in a 'reduction in spend of between £2.14 million to £10.3 million in Year 1 (which is half a year) and £13.6 million and £59.6 million in year 10 (in 2025-26 prices).'
Less money would be saved if deaths occurred after five months because people's natural lives would only be reduced by one month.
The impact assessment said in this scenario healthcare savings would be between £5.84 million and £25.6 million by year 10.
The financial impact on the care sector is also estimated. Between 138 and 602 care home residents are expected to go through with assisted deaths by October 2039, along with between 187 and 818 people in receipt of domiciliary care.
This would wipe between £143,000 and £4.61 million from care home profits, and lead to the domiciliary care sector losing between £52,000 and £918,000.
For state pensions, between £1.05 million and £18.3 million could be saved within a decade.
This would be on top of an estimated £354,000 to £6.20 million in attendance allowance payment and between £181,000 and £3.17 million in personal independence payments.
The impact assessment noted that cutting end-of-life care costs 'is not stated as an objective of the policy'.
MPs will gather for debate on May 16 in the House of Commons for the Bill's report stage, during which members are expected to vote on further amendments.
If time allows on that date, MPs could also vote on whether to approve the Bill at third reading – its final stage in the Commons – and decide if it is then sent to the House of Lords for further scrutiny.
However, it is understood this final vote is likely to take place the following month, on June 13.
After the paper's publication, Kim Leadbeater MP said the 'cost' of failing to act would be 'immense'.
She said: 'It is difficult, if not impossible, to put a price on correcting injustice and providing dignity to our fellow citizens in their final weeks and months, but it is of course right that we look at what effect changing the law would have more widely.'
A spokesman for the Department of Health and Social Care said the Government remains neutral on the matter but also 'has a responsibility to make sure any legislation that passes through Parliament is workable, effective and enforceable'.
He said the publication of the impact assessment was done 'in order to help Parliamentarians in their consideration of the Bill'.