What do we know about the US-China trade deal?

Al Jazeera

a day ago

The White House has said a trade deal with China is done and is awaiting the signatures of United States President Donald Trump and his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping.
The White House said on Wednesday that the president is currently reviewing the details.
Trump announced the deal after days of trade talks between US and Chinese delegations in London, which followed an earlier round of negotiations in Geneva, Switzerland.
'We have reached a framework to implement the Geneva consensus and the call between the two presidents,' US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick told reporters during the announcement.
The deal includes a provision in which China will supply the US with rare earth elements vital to major US companies, particularly in the auto, semiconductor, and smartphone manufacturing sectors.
Trump said that minerals would be supplied upfront, but it is unclear what that entails.
China has disproportionate control over the rare earth market. It produces 60 percent of the world's rare earth minerals and processes nearly 90 percent of them. That has been a longstanding concern of the US, including during the administration of former President Joe Biden.
In February 2024, then US Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm said the US was 'very concerned' about the nation's reliance on China for its supply of critical minerals in an interview with CNBC.
Those concerns have been amplified in Trump's second term, especially after he imposed sweeping tariffs – including a 145 percent tariff on China – and added on export control measures for China's chip industry.
In April, China's Ministry of Commerce retaliated by imposing export restrictions on these minerals.
Under the latest agreement, the US will impose 55 percent tariffs across the board on Chinese goods, down from 145 percent. In return, Beijing will impose a 10 percent tariff on goods it imports from the US, down from 125 percent.
The 55 percent US tariff includes a 10 percent baseline tariff – which is currently in legal limbo after a trade court ruled it illegal, a decision that a higher court has temporarily blocked – as well as 25 percent from tariffs dating to Trump's first term and 20 percent related to alleged fentanyl trafficking.
The White House has framed the deal as a win, and the tariffs remain higher than when Trump first took office. Experts continue to argue that tariffs act as a tax on US businesses and consumers will ultimately bear the cost, not China.
Retailers, including Walmart, have already said they will need to raise prices because of the tariffs. In an earnings call last month, CEO Doug McMillon said, 'Given the magnitude of the tariffs, even at the reduced levels announced this week, we aren't able to absorb all the pressure given the reality of narrow retail margins.'
Walmart sources about 60 percent of its merchandise from China. It's not clear if it will change any of its sourcing plans in the light of the latest deal.
The new deal hasn't assuaged the concerns among the small business community.
'For many small businesses that mostly source their parts or products from China, this is a death sentence and will destroy their American dream,' the Main Street Alliance, an advocacy group representing small business interests, said in a publicly released statement in response to the trade deal.
Small business owners have also had to implement hiring freezes and pause development due to tariffs on China. Wild Rye, an outdoor apparel brand that previously spoke with Al Jazeera, said this hasn't changed anything.
'It is devastating, 55 percent tariffs are still insane,' Cassie Abel, founder of Wild Rye, told Al Jazeera.
She added that because of the previously announced tariffs, anticipatory spending and orders to cater to, it was very challenging for small businesses like hers to find shipping containers to get her existing orders to the US.
'It's really hard to find a container. The chances of getting our product out of China within the 90-day window is basically zero,' Abel said.
The deal for a 90 day pause on most tariffs was announced in April and expires July 8. Because the specifics of the trade deal have yet to be made public, it is not clear when the new tariffs will kick in for China.
The White House did not respond to Al Jazeera's request for clarification.
The deal also includes a concession allowing Chinese students to continue attending US universities, a matter that had not been contested until Trump raised it a few weeks ago. The sudden shift in the US stance on that had left thousands of Chinese students – and the universities they were set to attend or are currently enrolled in – in limbo.
Lutnick said that US tariffs on China will not change again and will go into effect as soon as next week, although analysts believe that may be a negotiating tactic.
Dan Ives, an analyst at Wedbush Securities, believes that despite Lutnick's claims, this will not be the end of tariff negotiations with China. He expects further industry-specific exemptions in the months ahead, similar to the exception for semiconductor chips.
'The tariffs are high, but I believe this is … a starting point. The framework's established, and I'd expect more deals going forward,' Ives said.
Adam S Hersch, senior economist at the Economic Policy Institute, agrees it will lead to more negotiations.
'It seems like the two sides have agreed to postpone facing their deeper disagreements,' Hersch said.
Global markets generally responded positively to the news. In London, the FTSE closed up 0.1 percent. The Nikkei in Tokyo closed up 0.6 percent, the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index rose 0.8 percent, and Shanghai markets ended the day up 0.5 percent.
In the US, markets remained largely flat, balancing optimism from the trade news with the release of new inflation data. Consumer prices increased by just 0.1 percent, which was lower than expected. Analysts say the figure reflects both subdued inflation and consumers scaling back spending, partly due to the uncertainty surrounding trade policy.
The S&P 500 fell 0.3 percent for its first loss in four days. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was virtually unchanged after falling by 1 point yesterday. The tech heavy Nasdaq fell by 0.5 percent.