US soybean exports may fall 20% without China trade deal
China has been a critical market for US farmers, representing more than half of US soybean exports in the most recent marketing year. (EPA Images pic)
GENEVA : US soybean exports may drop 20% and the prices paid to farmers will plunge if the US and China fail to resolve their trade dispute, limiting US soybeans from their largest market, agribusiness consultants AgResource said today.
The temporary truce in the US-China trade war, announced on Monday, would not help US farmers revive soy sales in China as Chinese duties, even reduced to 10% from 145%, remained too high to make US soybeans competitive, AgResource President Dan Basse told Reuters.
US soybean exports could slump to 1.5 billion bushels from an initial estimate of 1.865 billion without a substantive deal, Basse said on the sidelines of the GrainCom conference in Geneva.
'At the same time, US soybean futures on the Chicago Board of Trade could fall as low as US$9 per bushel, compared to US$10.6 a bushel traded today,' Basse said.
'It's important that any US-China trade deal happen by late summer or the export forecast will become reality, pressuring US farm income. The clock is ticking,' he said.
'In contrast, if a deal brought tariffs back to their previous level, soybean prices could surge as high as US$13 a bushel,' he added.
'The truce helps but Brazil will have an additional 20 million metric tonnes of soybeans to export on Sept 1,' Basse said.
China has been a critical market for US farmers, representing more than half of US soybean exports in the most recent marketing year.
However, American farmers worry the tariff pause will not be enough to help them, as Brazil, the biggest soy supplier to China, has ample supplies from a record harvest, lower prices, and its farmers do not face any Chinese tariffs.
China, the world's largest crop importer, already sources roughly 70% of its soybean imports from Brazil.
'In other crops, corn and wheat would be less impacted but Chicago prices would also fall sharply, to as low as US$3.70 for corn (from US$4.40 today) and US$4.9 for wheat (from US$5.56),' he said.
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