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Free Malaysia Today
14-05-2025
- Business
- Free Malaysia Today
US soybean exports may fall 20% without China trade deal
China has been a critical market for US farmers, representing more than half of US soybean exports in the most recent marketing year. (EPA Images pic) GENEVA : US soybean exports may drop 20% and the prices paid to farmers will plunge if the US and China fail to resolve their trade dispute, limiting US soybeans from their largest market, agribusiness consultants AgResource said today. The temporary truce in the US-China trade war, announced on Monday, would not help US farmers revive soy sales in China as Chinese duties, even reduced to 10% from 145%, remained too high to make US soybeans competitive, AgResource President Dan Basse told Reuters. US soybean exports could slump to 1.5 billion bushels from an initial estimate of 1.865 billion without a substantive deal, Basse said on the sidelines of the GrainCom conference in Geneva. 'At the same time, US soybean futures on the Chicago Board of Trade could fall as low as US$9 per bushel, compared to US$10.6 a bushel traded today,' Basse said. 'It's important that any US-China trade deal happen by late summer or the export forecast will become reality, pressuring US farm income. The clock is ticking,' he said. 'In contrast, if a deal brought tariffs back to their previous level, soybean prices could surge as high as US$13 a bushel,' he added. 'The truce helps but Brazil will have an additional 20 million metric tonnes of soybeans to export on Sept 1,' Basse said. China has been a critical market for US farmers, representing more than half of US soybean exports in the most recent marketing year. However, American farmers worry the tariff pause will not be enough to help them, as Brazil, the biggest soy supplier to China, has ample supplies from a record harvest, lower prices, and its farmers do not face any Chinese tariffs. China, the world's largest crop importer, already sources roughly 70% of its soybean imports from Brazil. 'In other crops, corn and wheat would be less impacted but Chicago prices would also fall sharply, to as low as US$3.70 for corn (from US$4.40 today) and US$4.9 for wheat (from US$5.56),' he said.
New York Post
14-05-2025
- Business
- New York Post
US soybean exports may fall 20% without China trade deal, AgResource says
US soybean exports may drop 20% and the prices paid to farmers will plunge if the United States and China fail to resolve their trade dispute limiting US soybeans from their largest market, agribusiness consultants AgResource said on Wednesday. The temporary truce in the US-China trade war, announced on Monday, would not help US farmers revive soy sales in China as Chinese duties, even reduced to 10% from 145%, remained too high to make US soybeans competitive, AgResource President Dan Basse told Reuters. US soybean exports could slump to 1.5 billion bushels from an initial estimate of 1.865 billion without a substantive deal, Basse said on the sidelines of the GrainCom conference in Geneva. 3 US soybean exports may drop 20% if a trade deal with China is not reached. Getty Images At the same time, US soybean futures on the Chicago Board of Trade SX25 could fall as low as $9 per bushel, compared to $10.6 a bushel traded on Wednesday, Basse said. 'It's important that any US-China trade deal happen by late summer or the export forecast will become reality, pressuring US farm income. The clock is ticking,' he said. In contrast, if a deal brought tariffs back to their previous level, soybean prices could surge as high as $13 a bushel, he added. 'The truce helps but Brazil will have an additional 20 million metric tons of soybeans to export on September 1,' Basse said. China has been a critical market for US farmers representing more than half of US soybean exports in the most recent marketing year. However, American farmers worry the tariff pause will not be enough to help them, as Brazil, the biggest soy supplier to China, has ample supplies from a record harvest, lower prices, and its farmers do not face any Chinese tariffs. 3 Dan Duffy, a farmer in Illinois, planted soybean seeds with his brother on April 28. Getty Images 3 US soybean futures on the Chicago Board of Trade SX25 could fall as low as $9 per bushel. JUSTIN LANE/EPA-EFE/Shutterstock China, the world's largest crop importer, already sources roughly 70% of its soybean imports from Brazil. In other crops, corn and wheat would be less impacted but Chicago prices would also fall sharply, to as low as $3.70 for corn CZ25 from $4.40 on Wednesday and $4.9 WZ25 from $5.56, he said.
Reuters
14-05-2025
- Business
- Reuters
US soybean exports may fall 20% without China trade deal, AgResource says
GENEVA, May 14 (Reuters) - U.S. soybean exports may drop 20% and the prices paid to farmers will plunge if the United States and China fail to reach a deal in their trade dispute limiting U.S. soybeans from its largest market, agribusiness consultants AgResource said on Wednesday. U.S. soybeans exports could slump to 1.5 billion bushels from an initial estimate of 1.865 billion without a deal, AgResource President Dan Basse told Reuters on the sidelines of the GrainCom conference in Geneva. At the same time, U.S. soybeans farm gate prices - the average price paid to farmers - may collapse to $9.10 bushel in 2025/26, compared to $10.25 a bushel forecast by the U.S. Department of Agriculture, Basse said. "It's important that any U.S./China trade deal happen by late summer or the export forecast will become reality pressuring U.S. farm income. The clock is ticking," he said. The temporary truce in the U.S.-China trade war, announced on Monday, would not help U.S. farmers revive soy sales in China as Chinese duties, even reduced to 10% from 145%, remained too high to make U.S. soybeans competitive. "The truce helps but Brazil will have an additional 20 million metric tons of soybeans to export on September 1," Basse said. China has been a critical market for U.S. farmers representing more than half of U.S. soybean exports in the most recent marketing year. However, American farmers worry the tariff pause will not be enough to help them, as Brazil, the biggest soy supplier to China, has ample supplies from a record harvest, lower prices, and its farmers do not face any Chinese tariffs. China, the world's largest crop importer, already sources roughly 70% of its soybean imports from Brazil.
Business Recorder
08-05-2025
- Business
- Business Recorder
Pakistan makes large US soybean purchase as tensions with India rise
CHICAGO: Pakistan has made its biggest purchase of U.S. soybeans in nearly three years, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said on Thursday, as the nation resumes imports of genetically engineered soy. The purchases will only partially offset U.S. farmers' lost sales to top soy importer China because of President Donald Trump's trade war with Beijing. More than half of U.S. soybean exports are normally to China, while Pakistan's total imports in 2021 totaled just 1.4% of U.S. shipments abroad, according to U.S. government data. Pakistan, which is clashing with India after a deadly attack on Indian tourists in the disputed territory of Kashmir, bought 225,000 metric tons of U.S. soybeans for delivery in the crop year that begins on Sept. 1, the USDA said via its daily reporting system. It was the country's largest one-off deal for U.S. soybeans since a 297,000-ton purchase in June 2022, according to agency data. In retaliation for the April 22 attack, which left 26 people dead, India suspended a water-sharing pact with Pakistan, which denies any link to the Kashmir violence. Farmers in Pakistan who rely on the water for irrigation said crops could fail and people could go hungry. Pakistan's large soybean purchase surprised market analysts. Chicago soybeans, wheat rise amid trade deal hopes, US-China talks 'Pakistan is not the buyer that buys that amount of soybeans all in one slug before a new-crop season,' said Dan Basse, president of consultancy AgResource. Pakistan began approving imports of genetically engineered soybeans in December after banning them in 2022, according to the USDA. The ban, which ruled out most U.S. soy, increased poultry feed prices and chicken meat prices in Pakistan, the agency said. Pakistan imported 765,388 metric tons of U.S. soy in 2021, before the ban, and 2,644 metric tons last year, USDA data show. The agency, in an April report, projected Pakistan's total imports will rebound to 2 million metric tons in the crop year that begins on Sept. 1. It said local soybean production is negligible.
Business Recorder
07-05-2025
- Business
- Business Recorder
Soybeans continue slide on trade tensions, tumbling soyoil
CHICAGO: Chicago soybean futures slid for the second session on Tuesday as worries over international trade tensions and falling soyoil futures weighed on prices, analysts said. Corn futures were mixed as steady planting progress in the US and Brazil's upcoming harvest added pressure, while wheat crept higher on technical trading. Most active Chicago Board of Trade soybean futures were last down 8-1/4 cents to $10.37-1/4 per bushel as of 1610 GMT. The most active corn contract was last down 1/2 cent to $4.53 a bushel and CBOT wheat was up 5 cents to $5.36-1/4 a bushel. Demand for US soybeans from China, the world's biggest soy importer, has vanished amid the ongoing US-China trade war. Market players are continuing to await clearer indications that Washington and Beijing could enter negotiations to resolve their tariff standoff. 'The White House says they're working on all these deals but we're not getting any announcements and the trade is getting tired of this,' Tom Fritz, broker at EFG Group, said. Soyoil futures have taken a beating as a lack of biofuel blending mandates from the Environmental Protection Agency and cuts to the EPA budget prompted long liquidation and weighed on the entire soy complex, traders said. Meanwhile, traders said hot, dry weather in the major grain-growing province of Henan has raised concerns about wheat growth and led to short covering. 'Having a weather problem in China is important and might increase their appetite for wheat imports,' Dan Basse, president of AgResource Company, said. However, rain in the Black Sea region and a boost to US harvest prospects have continued to weigh on prices. The USDA's weekly update showed that corn planting was 40% complete, ahead of the five-year average of 39% but slightly below analyst expectations of 41%.
