Trump must not fall for Iran's nuclear shell game

The Hill

2 days ago

Team Trump has a growing Iranian problem. Tehran's latest purported nuclear offer — a farcical proposal to pause uranium enrichment for a year in exchange for the release of Iranian frozen funds and Washington's recognition of Iran's right to enrich uranium for civilian and energy purposes — is an obvious strategic non-starter for both the U.S. and Israel.
As Freedom for the Defense of Democracies President Mark Dubowitz posted on X, 'Do [the Iranians] think we're that stupid?' Apparently so.
Despite President Trump's assertion that talks between Iran and the U.S. might produce 'good news' this week, it is clear Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is intent on playing him for the fool.
Iran has been allowed to play this dangerous nuclear shell game for far too long. It has proven repeatedly that it cannot be trusted, and Israel is done playing Iranian games.
The White House must forcefully push back and disabuse Tehran of the notion that Trump can be played or that a slightly revised present-day rehash of the ill-advised Obama-era nuclear deal with Iran is even remotely acceptable.
Iran's strategic objective is apparent. Tehran is hell-bent on retaining its uranium enrichment capacity — a rapidly growing capacity that we have repeatedly warned would permit Iran to immediately produce five nuclear weapons within one week and exponentially many more nukes thereafter given Tehran's substantial centrifuge capacity to spin 90 percent weapons-grade highly enriched uranium.
Yet Iran's nuclear shell game is becoming even darker. It is no longer simply the ultimate manifestation of Iran's 'Axis of Resistance' war against Israel. Rather, it is now also Tehran's key staying card in Russian President Vladimir Putin's 'Axis of Evil.'
To preserve its status in both — especially given Iran's growing strategic standing with Putin as a primary supplier in his 'Arsenals of Evil' — Tehran is desperate to find ways to buy time to thwart any U.S. or Israeli military strikes against its nuclear weapons program.
Enter Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian. His two-day state visit to Muscat, Oman earlier this week was a multifaceted attempt to do just that.
Accompanied by Abbas Araghchi, Iran's foreign minister, Pezeshkian met with Haitham bin Tariq Al Said, the Sultan of Oman, ahead of a proposed sixth round of nuclear negotiations between Washington and Tehran.
Pezeshkian's regional Middle East gambit is to persuade Oman — who is serving as a negotiating mediator between the U.S. and Iran (and negotiated the U.S.-Houthi rebel ceasefire) — to sanction Iran's proposal to freeze uranium enrichment in exchange for sanctions relief and U.S. recognition of Tehran's right to enrich uranium going forward.
One of Pezeshkian's main regional goals is to obfuscate the issue of uranium enrichment. Earlier, in mid-May, in the lead up to his state visit to Oman, Tehran proposed that Iran, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar and other interested countries in the Persian Gulf region form a nuclear consortium to enrich uranium for commercial purposes.
Uranium enriched at levels below 5 percent — the amount required for hospital equipment and medical experiments — would be produced under the supervision of Iranian engineers. Iran's goal is obvious — to obtain the backing and support of fellow Gulf States.
Although their interests in procuring low-enriched uranium are legitimate, the Sunni Arab Gulf states are not likely to sign on to Tehran's proposal. First, it would put Doha, Dubai and Riyadh in direct conflict with Washington's zero-enrichment negotiating position. Second, it would potentially put them in Israel's crosshairs, should any Iranian-controlled production facilities be physically located in their countries.
Intentionally or no, Israel sent a message to Iran and the Gulf States during Pezeshkian's visit that it was a bad idea when it again struck Houthi targets in Yemen — Oman's neighbor in southwest Arabia. To underscore the point, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu forcefully declared that 'Iran is responsible' for aggression against Israel from Yemen.
Notably, there was an even darker transregional element to Pezeshkian's meetings in Oman. While he was meeting with the Sultan, Iran was also slated to participate in an 'Axis of Evil' military summit being hosted in Moscow by Sergei Shoigu, the former Russian defense minister. Military and security officials from North Korea and Iran were in attendance. Disconcertingly, the United Arab Emirates was in attendance as well.
That meeting in Moscow is a timely reminder that Russia has a vested interest in disrupting any nuclear negotiations between Washington and Iran. It is also working to deter any U.S. military action against Tehran and its nuclear, ballistic missile or drone production facilities spread out throughout the country.
Khamenei, presently, is a key supplier of ballistic missiles and drones to Moscow – the importance of which was recently underscored when Iran's parliament recently approved a 20-year strategic partnership with Moscow. Iran is doing its best to leverage its relationship with Putin to safeguard its nuclear ambitions. They are connected in that Trump's Special Envoy Steven Witkoff is negotiating this and the Russian ceasefire deal in Ukraine.
That pact, notably, comes on top of a free trade agreement that went into effect in mid-May under the auspices of the Eurasian Economic Union.
Israel sees all of this for what it is: a highly dangerous nuclear shell game being played against Jerusalem and Washington by Tehran and Russia. Significantly, it is equally clear that Israel is likely nearing a military strike on Iran's nuclear weapons program as evidenced by Trump's acknowledgement on Wednesday that he asked Netanyahu to wait.
The Israeli prime minister is short on patience with Iran these days given its support for Hamas, Hezbollah and the Houthi rebels.
It is time Team Trump saw this the same way and with the same level of clarity. Tehran, like its Russian ally, is attempting to play him for a fool. The White House needs to send a clear message to Khamenei, Oman, the United Arab Emirates and by extension Putin and his 'Axis of Evil' allies, including China, that Washington is nobody's fool.
Mark Toth writes on national security and foreign policy. Col. (Ret.) Jonathan E. Sweet served 30 years as an Army intelligence officer.