Rupee ends higher aided by mild inflows; RBI policy decision in focus
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Rupee buckles under position unwinding; dollar demand builds
The Indian rupee closed modestly stronger on Thursday, lifted by mild dollar inflows as well as positive cues from gains in most Asian peers, while traders awaited the Reserve Bank of India's monetary policy decision on Friday.The rupee closed at 85.79 against the U.S. dollar, up from its close of 85.90 in the previous session.While the rupee was nearly flat in the first half of the session, it received a slight boost from foreign banks' dollar sales in the latter half, likely on behalf of their custodial clients, a trader at a Mumbai-based bank said.Asian currencies were mostly stronger on the day as well while the dollar index was hovering little changed at 98.8.U.S. President Donald Trump reiterated his call for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates after U.S. private payrolls data came in weaker-than-expected on Thursday.Markets have priced in 56 basis points of rate cuts this year from the Fed, with traders pricing in a 95% chance for easing in September, per LSEG data.The Reserve Bank of India, meanwhile, is widely expected to deliver its third consecutive 25 bps cut on Friday, according to economists polled by Reuters."Our base call is for the RBI to undertake 50 bps more cuts (including June's move) in second half of 2025, taking the terminal rate to 5.5%," DBS Bank said in a note."Beyond this week's likely reduction, we expect the focus to shift towards policy transmission," the note added.India's benchmark equity indexes, the BSE Sensex and Nifty 50 closed higher by about 0.5% each, with some gains led by rate-sensitive sectors.Later in the day, the focus will be on the release of U.S. jobless claims data for cues on how uncertainty about trade policies is impacting the world's largest economy.
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