Pacers vs. Thunder 2025 NBA Finals preview: X-Factors, matchups, prediction

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Mar 29, 2025; Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, USA; Oklahoma City Thunder guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (2) drives to the basket beside Indiana Pacers guard Tyrese Haliburton (0) during the second quarter at Paycom Center. Mandatory Credit: Alonzo Adams-Imagn Images
A few days after they punched their ticket, the Oklahoma City Thunder finally learned their 2025 NBA Finals opponent. The Indiana Pacers blew out the New York Knicks in a 125-108 Game 6 win to set up this year's championship series.
The Thunder dominated their way to the NBA Finals. They went 12-4 against the West playoffs with mostly double-digit point wins. They beat the Minnesota Timberwolves in five games in the Western Conference Finals. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander was given the Western Conference Finals MVP.
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Meanwhile, the Pacers got hot at the right time. A few late-game heroics paired with a high-scoring offense have catapulted them to the NBA Finals. Tyrese Haliburton has stepped up as one of the best playoff players. Pascal Siakam was given the Eastern Conference Finals MVP.
Before the series starts with Game 1 from Paycom Center on Thursday, Thunder Wire will preview the series and break down matchups, X-factors and pencil in a series prediction for the first-round matchup:
Can SGA continue his dominace
Dec 26, 2024; Indianapolis, Indiana, USA; Oklahoma City Thunder guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (2) dribbles the ball while Indiana Pacers guard Andrew Nembhard (2) defends in the second half at Gainbridge Fieldhouse. Mandatory Credit: Trevor Ruszkowski-Imagn Images
After a slow start, Gilgeous-Alexander has played like an MVP winner in the playoffs. He's averaged 29.8 points on 47.1% shooting, 6.9 assists and 5.7 rebounds. Just a slight decrease from his regular-season numbers, which is expected, adjusted to postseason intensity.
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Against the Pacers this past season, Gilgeous-Alexander averaged 39 points on 55.6% shooting, eight assists and seven rebounds in two wins. Easy to say that this should be an NBA Finals matchup that could stamp the 26-year-old into one of the all-time greats. Indiana doesn't possess any perimeter defender who can slow him down.
No offense to the Pacers, but Gilgeous-Alexander was still a machine through the West's gauntlet. Considering Jalen Brunson picked apart their defense and a lesser version of the MVP winner as a drive-heavy scorer who can get hot with his jumper, this should be a series where he should easily average an efficient 30-plus points.
How the Thunder's 3-headed POA monster defend Haliburton
Dec 26, 2024; Indianapolis, Indiana, USA; Indiana Pacers guard Tyrese Haliburton (0) dribbles the ball while Oklahoma City Thunder guard Cason Wallace (22) defends in the first half at Gainbridge Fieldhouse. Mandatory Credit: Trevor Ruszkowski-Imagn Images
The Pacers run their offense through Haliburton. He's averaged 18.8 points on 46.6% shooting, 9.8 assists and 5.7 rebounds in the playoffs. That's led the NBA in assists during the postseason. He orchestrates the ball movement, but Indiana has plenty of other viable scoring options.
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Against similar players and archetypes, the Thunder have been excellent at limiting high-usage guards in the playoffs. Ja Morant, Jamal Murray and Anthony Edwards were blanketed throughout their respective playoff series against OKC, sans a few breakout games.
That's the benefit of Lu Dort, Alex Caruso and Cason Wallace. All three are high-end defenders who will be glued to Haliburton. There won't be a single second in the entire playoff series that at least one of those three guys won't share the floor with Indiana's All-Star.
If the Thunder can fade Haliburton into the background and force others like Andrew Nembhard to step up as the primary ball-handler, that'll play right into what they want to do as the league's best defense.
Can Hartenstein stay on the floor
Mar 29, 2025; Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, USA; Oklahoma City Thunder center Isaiah Hartenstein (55) dunks against the Indiana Pacers during the second quarter at Paycom Center. Mandatory Credit: Alonzo Adams-Imagn Images
You saw leaks of it against the Timberwolves. Hartenstein's playing time slowly dwindled. To the point he was benched in the second half in favor of small-ball lineups. But the Thunder managed to win the series without ever shaking up their starting lineup.
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The Hartenstein-Holmgren lineup was a weapon against the Grizzlies and Nuggets, but struggled against Minnesota. It's remained a slight positive, but lineup data suggest OKC's best lineup is when Chet Holmgren is the sole center.
Let's see if the Pacers' five-out offense can force the Thunder to change starters. Pascal Siakam and Myles Turner are a talented enough frontcourt that could force Hartenstein to defend in space. The bruiser big is uncomfortable when asked to defend the perimeter.
If the Pacers move the ball quickly enough and hit on their outside looks, the Thunder could pivot. They're willing to concede outside looks and trust their perimeter defenders to rotate and close out, but that strategy could bite OKC if Indiana's role players bury them on the scoreboard.
Who will be the better second option
Mar 29, 2025; Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, USA; Indiana Pacers forward Pascal Siakam (43) fights for a loose ball against Oklahoma City Thunder forward Jalen Williams (8) during the second quarter at Paycom Center. Mandatory Credit: Alonzo Adams-Imagn Images
After being on shaky ground in the middle of the Denver series, Jalen Williams has been a bona fide second option. He shut up any doubters with an excellent West Finals. He averaged 22.2 points on 49.4% shooting, 6.6 rebounds and 4.4 assists. Pair that with stonewall defense, he was the second-best player in that series.
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If Williams can carry that over to the NBA Finals, that'll ensure the Thunder win the championship. The All-Star can bulldoze his way to the basket for either layups or free throws. He can also get into a groove with his jumper.
On the other end, expect Williams to be Siakam's primary defender. The former NBA champion has been a playoff riser. He had three 30-point outings against the Knicks that won him the East Finals MVP award in an upset. If Williams can take him down to his regular-season numbers, Indiana won't have anybody else to go to that can get their own buckets.
Daigneault in rare experience disadvantage against Carlisle
Mar 29, 2025; Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, USA; Oklahoma City Thunder head coach Mark Daigneault watches his team play against the Indiana Pacers during the second quarter at Paycom Center. Mandatory Credit: Alonzo Adams-Imagn Images
For the first time in all playoffs, Daigneault enters as the freshly-faced rookie. He coached against two interim coaches in the first two rounds with Tuomas Iisalo and David Adelman. And while Chris Finch was in last year's Western Conference Finals, that didn't matter as OKC was a buzzsaw against Minnesota.
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But Rick Carlisle is on a different level. He's been an NBA head coach since 2001. This will be his second NBA Finals. He was the Dallas Mavericks' head coach when they upset the Miami Heat in 2011. The 65-year-old hopes history repeats itself.
Besides a few blips, Daigneault has made the right decisions in the playoffs. Let's see if the national spotlight and the highest stakes possible in a basketball game will change that. Meanwhile, Carlisle should know what to expect at this point in the year.
X-factor: Chet Holmgren
May 28, 2025; Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, USA; Oklahoma City Thunder forward Chet Holmgren (7) and guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (2) celebrates during the second quarter against the Minnesota Timberwolves in game five of the western conference finals for the 2025 NBA Playoffs at Paycom Center. Mandatory Credit: Alonzo Adams-Imagn Images
This is kinda a cop-out, but Holmgren didn't play in either matchup against the Pacers. He was out for the post-Christmas date with a hip fracture and also missed the second game in late March. But considering he's played better the deeper the Thunder have progressed in the playoffs, it's fair to say he completely changes the dynamics.
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Holmgren's defense speaks for itself. The Pacers will have him in mind anytime they drive to the basket. The seven-footer will cause plenty of kick-outs to the perimeter. He's the perfect foil to Turner, too. He can hold his own on the perimeter if needed and limit his outside attempts.
If the Thunder needs to abandon the double-big lineup, Holmgren will be the lone center. The data suggests they're at their best with him at the five. The Pacers don't have a counter. He'll be quick enough on his feet to avoid being hunted out and has the wingspan to recover.
The Thunder will get an early advantage with Holmgren. The Pacers have zero relevant film from this season against him. That means it'll be a couple of games before they can rationally conjure up counters. Until then, though, OKC should feed him the ball early in the post or transition.
Series prediction
OKLAHOMA CITY, OKLAHOMA - MARCH 29: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander #2 of the Oklahoma City Thunder drives to the basket around Myles Turner #33 of the Indiana Pacers during the third quarter Paycom Center on March 29, 2025 in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by)
Laying everything out, it's very easy to understand why the Thunder are viewed as the title favorite. They had one of the greatest regular seasons ever with a 68-14 record. That dominance has carried over to the playoffs, besides a couple of hiccups.
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The Thunder are just on another level. That's been the case all season long. From the top to the bottom, they stack up well against the Pacers. No offense to Indiana, but it's closer to the Grizzlies than the Nuggets. They deserve credit for getting this far. This is only their second NBA Finals appearance in franchise history and first since 2000. They got hot at the right time and showed their grit with a few comebacks and close wins in their playoff journey
But OKC is a machine. It made the bloodbath Western Conference look like a swimming pool. They're in the same company as some of the greatest teams ever and should join that NBA pantheon with a championship, barring one of the most surprising upsets in sports history.
Prediction: Thunder in 5
This article originally appeared on OKC Thunder Wire: Pacers vs. Thunder NBA Finals preview: X-Factors, matchups, prediction