
TSX Futures Climb as U.S. Holds Off on Mideast Military Move
Canadian equity futures ticked up Friday as markets breathed a temporary sigh of relief, with concerns over potential U.S. military escalation in the Israel-Iran standoff showing signs of easing.
Market Numbers (Futures)
TSX :Up ( 0.20%) 26,559.01TSXV: Down (0.37%) 715.97DOW: Up (0.11%) 42,234.00NASDAQ: Up (0.17%) 21,758.25
FTSE: Up (0.41%) 8,827.97
In the Headlines:
Canada's struggling EV market just got hammered harder, as workers say new tariffs are triggering production cuts and job losses across the industry.
And Canada Post locked in a deal with its second-largest union, giving rural workers an 11% raise, while talks with CUPW remain on the table.
Currencies Update: (Futures)
The Canadian dollar is down 0.08% to $0.7298 U.S., also in the red against the Euro by 0.27% to $0.6314 and Bitcoin is up 1.03% to 145,246.94
Commodities: (Futures)
Natural Gas: Up (3.44%), 4.13WTI: Down (2.33%), 73.37Gold: Down (0.70%), 3,347.07
Copper: Up (1.34%) 6.14
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National Post
37 minutes ago
- National Post
Canada Post reaches a deal with second-largest union. Could there still be a strike?
Canada Post and its second-largest union have reached an agreement in the ongoing labour dispute between the postal service and its workers. Article content In a statement released Thursday, the employer said it has a new collective agreement with the Canadian Postmasters and Assistants Association. As Canada Post's second-largest union, CPAA represents more than 8,500 employees, primarily those responsible for managing post offices in rural Canada. Article content Article content Article content What are the terms of the new agreement? Article content Article content The new agreement includes an 11 per cent wage increase over three years, retroactive to Jan. 1, 2024. The increase is split between 6 per cent in 2024, 3 per cent in 2025, and 2 per cent in 2026. The agreement is effective from Jan. 1, 2024, to Dec. 31, 2026. Article content According to a release from the union, the agreement also includes a $1,000 lump-sum payment to all full-time employees on the date of its signing, and $500 to all other employees. Article content No. Canada Post is still trying to reach a deal with CUPW, its largest union, which represents about 55,000 postal workers. It has been in a strike position since May 23, with the union having imposed a ban on overtime since that date. Article content Last week, the corporation received notice that Patty Hajdu, the minister of jobs and families, had approved its request for a vote to take place on the company's final offers to CUPW, which was delivered on May 28. The vote will be administered by the Canada Industrial Relations Board as soon as possible. Article content 'Canada Post welcomes the Minister's decision as it will provide employees with the opportunity to have a voice and to vote on a new collective agreement at a critical point in the company's history,' the company said in a statement. It is still unclear when the vote will take place. Article content

Globe and Mail
an hour ago
- Globe and Mail
Investors could see stock market selloff if U.S. attacks Iran
Financial markets may be in for a 'knee-jerk' selloff if the U.S. military attacks Iran, with economists warning that a dramatic rise in oil prices could damage a global economy already strained by President Donald Trump's tariffs. Oil prices fell nearly 2% on Wednesday as investors weighed the chance of supply disruptions from the Israel-Iran conflict and potential direct U.S. involvement. The price of crude remains up almost 9% since Israel launched attacks against Iran last Friday in a bid to cripple its ability to produce nuclear weapons. With major U.S. stock indexes trading near record highs despite uncertainty about Trump's trade policy, some investors worry that equities may be particularly vulnerable to sources of additional global uncertainty. Chuck Carlson, chief executive officer at Horizon Investment Services, said U.S. stocks might initially sell off should Trump order the U.S. military to become more heavily involved in the Israel-Iran conflict, but that a faster escalation might also bring the situation to an end sooner. 'I could see the initial knee-jerk would be, 'this is bad',' Carlson said. 'I think it will bring things to a head quicker.' Wednesday's dip in crude, along with a modest 0.3% increase in the S&P 500, came after Trump declined to answer reporters' questions about whether the U.S. was planning to strike Iran but said Iran had proposed to come for talks at the White House. Adding to uncertainty, Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei rejected Trump's demand for unconditional surrender. U.S. Treasury yields fell as concerns over the war in Iran boosted safe haven demand for the debt. The U.S. military is also bolstering its presence in the region, Reuters reported, further stirring speculation about U.S. intervention that investors fear could widen the conflict in an area with critical energy resources, supply chains and infrastructure. With investors viewing the dollar as a safe haven, it has gained around 1% against both the Japanese yen and Swiss franc since last Thursday. On Wednesday, the U.S. currency took a breather, edging fractionally lower against the yen and the franc. 'I don't think personally that we are going to join this war. I think Trump is going to do everything possible to avoid it. But if it can't be avoided, then initially that's going to be negative for the markets,' said Peter Cardillo, Chief Market Economist at Spartan Capital Securities in New York. 'Gold would shoot up. Yields would probably come down lower and the dollar would probably rally.' Barclays warned that crude prices could rise to $85 per barrel if Iranian exports are reduced by half, and that prices could rise about $100 in the 'worst case' scenario of a wider conflagration. Brent crude was last at about $76. Citigroup economists warned in a note on Wednesday that materially higher oil prices 'would be a negative supply shock for the global economy, lowering growth and boosting inflation—crea–ing further challenges for central banks that are already trying to navigate the risks from tariffs." Tr'mp taking a 'heavier hand' would not be a surprise to the market, mitigating any negative asset price reaction, Carlson said, while adding that he was still not convinced that the U.S. would take a heavier role. Trades on the Polymarket betting website point to a 63% expectation of 'U.S. military action against Iran before July,' down from as much as an 82% likelihood on Tuesday, but still above a 35% chance before the conflict began last Friday. The S&P 500 energy sector index has rallied over 2% in the past four sessions, lifted by a 3.8% gain in Exxon Mobil and 5% rally in Valero Energy. That compares to a 0.7% drop in the S&P 500 over the same period, reflecting investor concerns about the impact of higher oil prices on the economy, and about growing global uncertainty generated by the conflict. Turmoil in the Middle East comes as investors are already fretting about the effect of Trump's tariffs on the global economy. The World Bank last week slashed its global growth forecast for 2025 by four-tenths of a percentage point to 2.3%, saying that higher tariffs and heightened uncertainty posed a 'significant headwind' for nearly all economies. Defense stocks, already lifted by Russia's conflict with Ukraine, have made modest gains since Israel launched its attacks. The S&P 500 Aerospace and Defense index hit record highs early last week in the culmination of a rebound of over 30% from losses in the wake of Trump's April 2 'Liberation Day' tariff announcements. Even after the latest geopolitical uncertainty, the S&P 500 remains just 2% below its February record high close. 'Investors want to be able to look past this, and until we see reasons to believe that this is going to be a much larger regional conflict with the U.S. perhaps getting involved and a high chance of escalating, you're going to see the market want to shrug this off as much as it can,' Osman Ali, global co-head of Quantitative Investment Strategies, said at an investor conference on Wednesday.


Globe and Mail
an hour ago
- Globe and Mail
Palantir Holds Anti-Fragile Edge Amid a Geopolitical Firestorm
As 2025 emerges as a year marked by heightened global conflict and uncertainty, Palantir Technologies Inc. PLTR is demonstrating how its platforms are increasingly relevant in volatile environments. From the Russia-Ukraine war and the Israel-Iran escalation to rising tensions in the Taiwan Strait, governments are rapidly investing in technologies that support secure, real-time decision-making under pressure. Palantir holds an antifragile edge because rising geopolitical instability amplifies demand for its AI-driven defense platforms, thus deepening integration and long-term relevance. As global conflicts intensify, its systems become more critical, reinforcing the company's strategic value and making it stronger in the face of adversity. Palantir's strength lies in its ability to offer mission-critical infrastructure and not just tools. Its Maven Smart Systems (MSS) platform, integrating AI with real-time intelligence, has seen a rapid increase in adoption, including NATO's recent selection of MSS as its Command and Control (C2) platform for all 32 member states. This underscores a broader institutional shift toward advanced, data-driven defense capabilities. In times of crisis, decision-makers are often inundated with fragmented data and evolving threats. Palantir's platforms, Gotham, Foundry and MetaConstellation, help unify and analyze this data securely, enabling informed and timely responses. Importantly, Palantir delivers sovereign and deployable AI systems, reinforcing the autonomy and operational integrity of its users. While no one welcomes conflict, the unfortunate reality of today's geopolitical landscape has led to renewed focus on resilient digital infrastructure. Palantir's deeply integrated solutions, particularly its Ontology framework, position it as a critical enabler of secure coordination and defense modernization. PLTR has surged a whopping 85% in 2025, with its stock reaching an all-time high near $145. With the stock trading above 200x forward P/E and 74x forward P/S ratio, far above industry averages, even optimistic analysts will acknowledge that such multiples are difficult to justify without efficient execution. As ceasefire negotiations and diplomatic resolutions begin, the 'war premium' currently embedded in PLTR's share price could dissipate as swiftly as it had emerged. PLTR stock currently carries a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold). The Zacks Consensus Estimate for its second-quarter 2025 earnings has been on the rise over the past 60 days. You can see the complete list of today's Zacks #1 Rank (Strong Buy) stocks here. Stable Defense Alternatives to Palantir As PLTR moves higher, Lockheed Martin LMT and RTX Corporation RTX offer more grounded defense exposure. Lockheed Martin, with its massive defense contracts, provides steady cash flow and less volatility than PLTR. LMT continues to benefit from global rearmament while trading at modest earnings multiples. Similarly, RTX shines through missile systems. RTX's defense backlog, like LMT's, underscores its stability. Zacks Names #1 Semiconductor Stock It's only 1/9,000th the size of NVIDIA which skyrocketed more than +800% since we recommended it. NVIDIA is still strong, but our new top chip stock has much more room to boom. With strong earnings growth and an expanding customer base, it's positioned to feed the rampant demand for Artificial Intelligence, Machine Learning, and Internet of Things. Global semiconductor manufacturing is projected to explode from $452 billion in 2021 to $803 billion by 2028. See This Stock Now for Free >> Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report Lockheed Martin Corporation (LMT): Free Stock Analysis Report RTX Corporation (RTX): Free Stock Analysis Report Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR): Free Stock Analysis Report