
St. Paul Public Schools tries to stem enrollment losses with marketing, outreach to parents
On a snowy morning this winter, parents and students at Dayton's Bluff Elementary in St. Paul sat down with donuts and coffee for their monthly meeting with the principal.
Among budget discussions and questions, the parents began to share ideas to help with art projects at the school, which doesn't have an art teacher.
If enrollment numbers continue to grow and Dayton's Bluff has three classes at each grade level, the school can hire one, Principal Amanda Musachio told the group. That would take about 80 more enrollees, Musachio said at the time.
It's a possibility. Since last school year, the school has enrolled 30 more students than the year before – going from 271 to 301.
Dayton's Bluff is one of six schools in St. Paul Public Schools taking part in a multi-year district campaign to increase enrollment that includes extensive marketing efforts and reexamining how schools connect with families.
Traditional school districts like SPPS are just starting to become more focused on enrollment, said Nick LeRoy, chief enrollment officer and head of marketing with SchoolMint, a Louisiana-based company which specializes in helping districts improve enrollment and which has been working with the district on the campaign.
'And, to be honest with you, there's a little bit of a resistance that traditional public schools feel … they don't want to have to market their school. … But that's kind of how education is morphing, into more of that, I hate to say a free market sort of environment, but let's say one word — choice, and parental choice is really important,' LeRoy said.
During the morning meeting at Dayton's Bluff with the principal, St. Paul resident Rachel Tolo visited with her 5-year-old daughter, Sophie, as she weighed her education choices.
Tolo had attended another open house in the district beforehand and was interested in several other schools, including one with a language immersion program. While some schools she was considering were further from her home, she said she was interested because of what she read about Dayton's Bluff online.
Tolo also has considered non-public schools, in part because they offer schedules with half days or other options, she said.
'So cost is one, distance is another. And then I would say, for me, something that is important to me is that she's still really young and sending her off to school all day, every day, feels like a lot,' she said.
St. Paul's enrollment work might be paying off. The district saw an increase — around 890 students — in enrollment for the 2024-25 school year compared to last, according to numbers recently released by the Minnesota Department of Education. The district, which counts enrollment differently from the state, reported a 527 student increase.
Enrollment is the primary driver of a school district's budget, with nearly all revenue linked to enrollment, including state aid and local property taxes, according to SPPS.
While a one-year increase in enrollment does not equal a trend, it's the first year in a decade the district has had higher enrollment than the year before, said district spokesperson Erica Wacker.
'…That is very exciting for the district, and we know that there's still a lot of work to be done to attract families and to make sure that we have the education offerings that they want and deserve for their students,' Wacker said.
The change comes as the district works on its third phase of the $425,000 enrollment campaign, which comes from the district's general fund. It's unclear if the campaign will continue beyond phase three.
The share of St. Paul's school-age children enrolled in district schools has been dropping over the last decade. As of the 2024-25 school year, around 55% of the more than 59,000 students attending St. Paul schools in-person or online are attending St. Paul Public Schools, a drop of around 8% since the 2015-16 school year.
The losses for the state's second-largest district are largely due to competition from charter schools, as well as homeschooling and students picking private schools or neighboring districts through open enrollment.
St. Paul charter schools enroll the largest number of students after the St. Paul Public Schools district and have steadily grown in the last ten years.
In the 2024-25 school year, St. Paul charter schools, excluding online students, reported enrolling 16,537 students, or close to 31% of pre-kindergarten to 12th grade students enrolled in the city, according to data collected by the Minnesota Department of Education. With online students included, it was around 36% of students.
From the 2015-16 school year to the 2024-25 school year, the number of students enrolled in St. Paul charter schools in-person or online has increased by 6,374 students, according to the state.
The next largest share of St. Paul students outside of SPPS attend private schools or other school districts. The smallest number are homeschooled.
Because Minnesota has open enrollment, St. Paul residents also are able to enroll in other districts. In the last ten years, neighboring Roseville Area Schools and North St. Paul-Maplewood-Oakdale School District have received the largest numbers of St. Paul students. The majority of non-resident students coming into SPPS have come from the North St. Paul-Maplewood Oakdale school district.
SPPS itself reports different enrollment numbers from the state for a few reasons. State numbers in this story are based on public schools with addresses listed in St. Paul in order to follow the same method used to find enrollment in other schools in the city. They should align closely with schools in the St. Paul Public School District, but some schools in the district actually list non-St. Paul addresses, according to the state. To see SPPS's own enrollment reports, go to spps.org/about/departments/research-evaluation-assessment/data-center/school-district-data/enrollment.
Some students, such as some preschoolers, are funded with district money — rather than state funds — so they are not included in state enrollment numbers, but are included in SPPS numbers. This school year, SPPS reported 33,589 total students enrolled. Last year, it reported 33,062.
With a total of $2.2 billion in new funding for the 2024-25 two-year budget, Minnesotan school districts saw a nearly 11% increase over the last state budget, the Pioneer Press reported in April. But despite the record funding, many school districts across the state still face budget shortfalls, including St. Paul.
The district's 2024-25 budget included a $108 million deficit, in part due to federal pandemic aid expiring, inflation and declining enrollment. The district projects a shortfall of approximately $51 million in next year's budget, which must be approved by the district Board of Education by the end of June.
More than 70% of metro-area school districts in Minnesota expected deficits last year, according to the Association of Metropolitan School Districts, and St. Paul had one of the largest.
State funding for the two-year budget gave a 4% increase to the per-student state funding formula in 2024-25 — tied to future inflation increases.
The total general fund expenditures per student pre-kindergarten to 12th grade for SPPS during the 2023-24 school year was $23,112. By comparison, the state average is $16,649 per pupil, according to the district.
As charter schools are public, state and federal governments help fund education in both charters and public school districts. However, charter schools receive less per pupil funding than traditional public schools, may not levy property taxes for funding and receive no funding from local property taxes, according to the Minnesota Association of Charter Schools.
General education revenue is the main source of operating funds for Minnesota's public schools. In the 2023-24 school year, the state provided approximately 66.4% of the total costs of elementary and secondary education, according to a November school finance guide by the Minnesota House Research Department. Local revenue sources, which are primarily property taxes and services fees, such as those for athletics, made up approximately 27.2% of operating revenues. The federal government provided approximately 5.4% of public schools' revenue.
The total adopted 2015-16 budget for the district was $697.8 million. In 2024-25, the total adopted budget was $1 billion.
Declines in per-pupil state aid have resulted in districts relying more heavily on local property tax levies to support budgets.
Local property taxes contribute to approximately 20% of SPPS's annual revenue, according to the district. In December, the St. Paul school board approved a property tax levy for the 2025-26 school year in the amount of $220.8 million, a 7.92% increase and the maximum allowed.
Education | St. Paul police arrest 3 after group assaults student outside High School for Recording Arts
Education | St. Paul students cut the ribbon for the world's 200,000th Little Free Library
Education | St. Paul school field trip canceled for students of color following racial discrimination complaint
Education | Semifinalists for Minnesota Teacher of the Year include 3 St. Paul teachers
Education | District-wide cellphone policy prohibiting use approved by SPPS Board of Education Tuesday
Historically, the district has done annual marketing around school choice and enrollment periods, according to Wacker. Marketing has included an annual school choice fair, postcard mailings, school guide distribution, open houses and other events.
But, in fall 2022, a district enrollment committee began its campaign to stabilize enrollment. The committee included representatives from the school board, the teachers' union, community members, as well as members of different district departments.
While phase one of the campaign took a district-wide approach to increasing enrollment, phase two focused on six schools selected by the district. Phase three continues previous social media efforts for six schools.
As part of the campaign, LeRoy acted as a 'secret shopper,' to see how easy it is for a potential parent to find a school online, check out its offerings and book a tour. LeRoy then attended posing as a prospective parent. Principals of schools received feedback on the shopping experience and areas for improvement.
'So we did the secret shopper, met with the principal, did an evaluation on that, then we built a more enrollment-focused website for them that kind of talked about why you should choose this school. Schools are great, but oftentimes they're not good at describing how good they are,' LeRoy said.
For Dayton's Bluff, a feature that makes them stand out is their focus on the whole family, said Musachio. That includes having family feedback on curriculum and offering dental clinics, free household goods and adult classes at the school.
Marketing themselves is an area charter schools typically have more experience with. While many traditional urban public school districts are just beginning to recognize the need for marketing, those efforts have been a necessity for charter and private schools, LeRoy said.
'(Private schools) for the longest time, this is how they had to market themselves in order to get tuition-paying families,' LeRoy said. 'Then the public charter schools — again, these are schools of choice, people have to actually choose them — and so they're probably the next level in terms of sophistication around marketing and advertising.'
This year's campaign for phase three targets enrollment at six schools: Riverview Spanish/English Dual Immersion Program, Cherokee Heights Elementary, Dayton's Bluff, Highwood Hills Elementary, Chelsea Heights Elementary and Crossroads Elementary.
SPPS looks at several types of data to predict its enrollment rate, including birth rates, charter school openings or closing and migration in or out of local neighborhoods, as well as historic enrollment trends, according to the district.
The district considers stabilized enrollment to be when decreases are at 1.5% or less.
In 2023, consultant and former state demographer Hazel Reinhardt presented to the Anoka-Hennepin school board, which oversees the largest district in the state, on the demographics that can impact enrollment.
According to Reinhardt, kindergarten classes in public schools have been smaller than pre-pandemic levels in part due to lower birth rates, housing mixes that yield fewer students and alternative schooling options.
Immigration from abroad also slowed, a factor Minnesota has been dependent on for its population in the last 25 years, Reinhardt said during the 2023 meeting. And, more young adults are moving out of the state, she said.
'So we have fewer and fewer students who are in St. Paul, paired with a larger and larger number of schools for them to choose from,' said SPPS board member Uriah Ward, who helped develop the campaign.
Statewide, Minnesota's total public school enrollment peaked in 2020 and is in a period of slow decline, according to the state Legislature. At the same time, charter school enrollment is continuing to grow at a modest pace.
Lower birth rates and growing school choice initiatives, such as private school vouchers, are impacting schools across the country, LeRoy said.
'You're seeing lots of chronic absenteeism as well, and so we're kind of in an enrollment crisis, if you will,' LeRoy said.
According to the National Center for Education Statistics, total public elementary and secondary school enrollment is projected to be lower in fall 2031 than in fall 2022 nationally, primarily due to declines in the school-age population. Minnesota is projected to have a 2% enrollment drop in that time period compared to the national projected average drop of 5%.
At SPPS, the district has focused on the four Ps: Program, Principal, Place and Promotion. This means school programming, training principals to market their school and connect with families, making it easy for families to find information and locations for schools and how well the school is promoted.
'When we hear from families and we ask them what they're looking for and what's most important to them … the number one is curriculum,' Wacker said.
That's followed by available transportation, school schedules and afterschool programs, Wacker said.
A consultant helped Dayton's Bluff work on its marketing materials, such as including school start and end times on flyers and working with stakeholders to pinpoint the school's strengths to market to families. Work also included making the enrollment process as seamless as possible online and at the school.
Now, the school focuses on enrollment all year, rather than only during enrollment periods, Musachio said.
An ongoing challenge with enrollment efforts is that families want consistency in curriculum and schools cannot always guarantee that, especially as enrollment fluctuates. Schools also do not always have staff specifically dedicated to enrollment or family engagement.
The campaign has, however, focused on how principals like Musachio play an important role in enrollment efforts.
'And the promotional stuff is great, and you need that, but you need to have the principal who's really engaged and out there. You need to have the programming that families want. So, you can't just put a flashy ad on Facebook and expect that to do it. You need to have the backbone in place to live up to what the ads are selling,' Wacker said.
Whether or not the enrollment campaign continues, schools can continue to use what they've learned from it, Musachio said.
'And so I think that the data that we have from that, the marketing materials that we have from that, the lessons we've learned from it, will still continue to help us, even though the official (campaign) is over,' Musachio said.
Education | St. Paul police arrest 3 after group assaults student outside High School for Recording Arts
Education | St. Paul students cut the ribbon for the world's 200,000th Little Free Library
Education | St. Paul school field trip canceled for students of color following racial discrimination complaint
Education | Semifinalists for Minnesota Teacher of the Year include 3 St. Paul teachers
Education | District-wide cellphone policy prohibiting use approved by SPPS Board of Education Tuesday

Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles


San Francisco Chronicle
an hour ago
- San Francisco Chronicle
Nordstrom is coming back to San Francisco — but not how you remember it
The move comes nearly two years after the retailer's dramatic departure from downtown San Francisco, where it closed both its flagship store at Westfield Mall and a nearby Nordstrom Rack in 2023. Unlike its full-scale department stores, the upcoming 1,648-square-foot Nordstrom Local, set to open at 1919 Fillmore St., will not carry traditional retail inventory. Instead, it will function as a neighborhood hub offering online order pickups, returns, tailoring and personal styling appointments. The space will feature eight dressing rooms, a styling suite, and customer amenities including same-day delivery — and even a glass of wine or beer during visits. 'We're welcoming Nordstrom back,' said Planning Commission President Lydia So during the hearing. 'And we're welcoming whoever else wants to come back — or those who never considered coming here because things are hard.' After months of debate and outreach, the commission approved the proposal in a 5–2 vote. Still, the decision was not without controversy. Several residents and small business owners voiced concern that the store would worsen traffic congestion and fail to align with the neighborhood's character. 'This will increase traffic and hurt small businesses,' wrote Sharon Esker, who has lived in the neighborhood since 1969. 'It is not a retail store and I would like a better alternative to this space.' Neighbor Ditka Reiner criticized the landlord's decision to lease to a national retailer, noting that 'chain stores typically contribute to rising rents that push out small, local, independent businesses that are the backbone of a city.' The storefront, previously home to Minted, has been vacant since the early days of the pandemic and has become a symbol of the city's broader commercial vacancy crisis. But support for the project also came from a number of Fillmore Street merchants. 'Nordstrom has long been a responsible and engaged member of San Francisco's business landscape,' wrote Molly Leonetti, president of local boutique Clare V. 'Their presence will not only bring new energy to Fillmore Street but also support the success of neighboring businesses, including ours.' Andrew Graham, vice president of sales at San Francisco-based Marine Layer, agreed. 'Their convenient services, from order pickups to alterations, will attract customers who are likely to explore and shop at nearby stores, further strengthening the local economy,' he wrote. The debate around Nordstrom's return underscores ongoing tensions in San Francisco's recovery, between attracting commercial tenants to fill empty storefronts and preserving the unique character of neighborhood retail corridors.

Business Insider
an hour ago
- Business Insider
Real estate investors say mid-term rentals are the 'sweet spot,' offering a way around Airbnb red tape and more cash flow than long-term rentals
When the COVID pandemic erased virtually all of Zeona McIntyre's Airbnb bookings, she found a solution in mid-term rentals. "I was really open to doing whatever I needed to get my properties rented," the Colorado-based property investor told Business Insider. She started listing her properties on Furnished Finder, which is geared toward traveling professionals and specializes in 30-day plus stays, and was surprised by the hit rate and relative ease of the process. "I realized there are tons of people looking all the time for longer stays — and longer stays are kind of awesome because people don't need as much from you. They're OK to go buy their own toilet paper and change the batteries because they're living there." What started as an attempt to combat Airbnb vacancies evolved into her preferred rental strategy. "My bread-and-butter is these mid-term rentals," said McIntyre, who is the author of " 30-Day Stay." "I want a longer tenant in there, and I don't want to have to think about it for three months." Massachusetts-based investor Dana Bull also pivoted to mid-term rentals, but for a different reason: to withstand rising interest rates. The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate surged to 8% in 2023 and lingered in the 6s and 7s in 2024. Higher interest rates mean higher monthly payments, which can eat into an investor's cash flow. Bull has been renting to long-term tenants for more than a decade, but to make the numbers work on her most recent acquisition, a charming single-family home she found in 2023 and couldn't pass up, she turned to mid-term rentals, which she says are more time-intensive, but also more profitable. The 'sweet spot' of rentals Real estate investors tend to agree that, while long-term rentals can produce consistent, relatively passive income, these leases generate less revenue a month compared to short-term rentals. However, short-term rental properties present unique challenges, such as constant tenant turnover, managing multiple bookings, and ever-evolving country-specific rules and regulations. Then, there are mid-term rentals — or, the "sweet spot" of real-estate investing, according to McIntyre — which are properties listed for longer than 30 days but less than a year. In her experience, they're "a whole different vibe from short-term rentals and way less stressful." One major stressor she faced in hosting on Airbnb and VRBO was the evolving rules around permits and licenses. "Short-term rentals have been under scrutiny, and the ever-tightening regulations are constantly changing," she said. "But there is sort of this magic number that, as soon as a listing is over 30 days, these rentals get classified into a long-term rental bucket and then you don't have the extra taxes or have to have a short-term rental permit." That was a contributing factor in Manny Reyna's decision to incorporate mid-term rentals into his overall strategy. "Within San Antonio, you need an STR permit through the city," said Reyna, who rents two single-family homes and two tiny homes in the San Antonio metro. "The permit is $450 just to apply, and you have to pay county taxes and city taxes on the revenue. It's called a hotel tax, and it's really high." However, if you're listing a 30-day stay, "you don't necessarily have to worry about the STR taxes," said Reyna. "It's a little bit of a loophole, if you will. It's also a good middle ground, because the cash flow is higher than long-term rentals." That said, hosting mid-term stays will require upfront work. You're catering to a completely different customer, and leasing can be a challenge because mid-term rentals are less mainstream, explained Bull. "If you want a long-term rental, you know you're going to be on Zillow or work with a real-estate agent. If you want a short-term rental, you also have set channels: You have Airbnb, Vrbo." The equivalent for mid-term rentals is Furnished Finder, "but it's not very well known, and it's not nearly as big as something like Airbnb," she said. A hybrid approach While Reyna prefers mid-term tenants, he wants to cater to a broad customer base and still lists his properties on Airbnb, VRBO, Hipcamp, and Facebook Marketplace when there's a gap between mid-term tenants. "I try to do a shotgun approach to see who's going to bite first," he said. Seattle-based investor Peter Keane-Rivera also uses a hybrid model for his 70s-themed " Groovy Guest House," which he initially listed exclusively as a short-term vacation rental. He enjoys the work that goes into managing a short-term rental — "it does allow you to provide a unique service and really to have control over the quality of that service," he said — but offering 30-plus day stays will generate more consistent revenue during the slow season when people are traveling less. "In the summertime, it pulls in a lot — in June and July, I made almost $5,000 on a one-bedroom in the outskirts of Seattle," he said, referring to the Airbnb income. "But in the wintertime, there are lower margins. I'd rather get something closer to market rent rates, not have to worry about it for four to five months during the slowest seasons, and then spin it back up for spring, summer, and fall to maximize the return." Toggling between short- and mid-term rentals is "a real asset," he said, adding that if he expands to a second Airbnb unit, he'd use the same strategy. "For eight months out of the year, I'd run it as an Airbnb and then during the low season, run it as a mid-term rental."

USA Today
2 hours ago
- USA Today
Small Michigan auto suppliers face a tariff crisis with thousands of jobs at risk
Small Michigan auto suppliers face a tariff crisis with thousands of jobs at risk Show Caption Hide Caption Appeals court allows Trump tariffs while appeal plays out An appeals court ruled the Trump administration will be allowed to levy tariffs while an appeal on previous court rulings plays out. Michigan auto parts suppliers are struggling with the 25% tariffs imposed by President Trump on imported vehicles and parts. Smaller suppliers are especially vulnerable, facing potential job losses and business closures due to increased costs. Industry experts warn that tariffs could lead to supplier consolidation, potentially driving up prices for consumers. Michigan-based auto parts suppliers are getting creative in their attempts to mitigate President Donald Trump's 25% tariffs on imported vehicles and auto parts. They must, because many industry experts worry the tariffs could put smaller players — which constitute the bulk of auto suppliers — out of business and result in widespread job losses. Take Michigan-based Lucerne International in Auburn Hills, which is looking for the U.S. government to grant it foreign trade zone status to help it delay its tariff bills and free up its cash flow. Another supplier, Team 1 Plastics Inc., is reassessing its business model, including what to do about a much-needed factory expansion that may no longer be affordable. Still others are asking automakers to help foot the bill. 'We've had a lot to think about when you take an industry that is as far-flung as the supply base is in automotive, and then throw in tariffs.' said Gary Grigowski, vice president of Team 1 Plastics, Inc. Adds Lucerne CEO Mary Buchzeiger, "I wake up in the morning and I deal with tariffs. I go to bed and I deal with tariffs. Then the policy keeps changing and when that playbook continuously keeps changing and we don't know what is going to happen two weeks from now … that's a challenge for any industry.' In Michigan, auto parts suppliers are huge employers and contributors to the economy. While experts believe the big suppliers will adapt to tariffs, it's all those smaller companies, such as Team 1 Plastics, which has just 80 employees, that industry observers worry about. In case you missed it: Economists estimate new tariff costs to range between $2,000 to $12,000 per vehicle "University of Michigan economists said tariffs on the auto industry, along with steel and aluminum, can be expected to reduce employment by roughly 13,000 jobs over the next several years. That's a lot of jobs," said Glenn Stevens, executive director of MichAuto. "This is what we've been concerned about because our industry is so tied to Mexico and Canada and the global auto supply chain. We were concerned that the tariff situation would cause an outsized impact on Michigan's economy.' Industry consolidation could drive up prices On May 28, the U.S. Court of International Trade ruled that the president had overstepped his authority in imposing 'reciprocal' tariffs globally, as well as duties on Canada and Mexico. Some in the auto industry said they were encouraged by the ruling, until they realized that the tariffs Trump put on autos still apply, providing no relief from the worry over possible supplier consolidation and job losses. The next day, an appeals court ruled Trump can continue to levy tariffs — which are taxes an importer pays on goods when they cross borders — while challenging the court order that had blocked them. Stevens said there are 'absolutely conversations going on' between suppliers and their customers, including automakers, about ways to shoulder the extra tariff costs together. 'When you have a tremendous increase in costs … that has to either be absorbed by the company, which is very difficult for small suppliers, or passed along to the customer,' Stevens said. 'What we don't want is it passed to the consumer, because that means repressed demand and lower sales, which leads to job losses. It's a fine balancing act.' Other industry experts report that the topic of the day among suppliers is how to remain solvent when faced with the tariffs potentially eating up their operating cash. "We are actively speaking with the tiered supplier community about this topic," said Joe McCabe, CEO of AutoForecast Solutions. "Everyone is taking the tariff talks seriously and looking at ways to improve efficiencies internally and investigate secondary supply strategies. The further down the supply chain you go, the more exposed the supplier will be." McCabe said the Tier 1 suppliers are in the strongest position to adapt to tariffs. They are bigger suppliers that sell directly to automakers. They have a diverse product portfolio to either relocate production and/or pressure the lower-tier suppliers — those companies that sell parts to the Tier 1 supplier — with price-reduction demands while investigating new suppliers in low-to-zero tariff regions. But in times of volatility, there has always been concern that the smaller suppliers will not be able to weather the storm, allowing larger suppliers to buy the distressed suppliers on the cheap and strengthen their product portfolio, McCabe said. As the number of suppliers dwindles, it could allow those that remain to strong-arm carmakers on the prices they pay for the parts, he said. The number of suppliers According to U.S. Census data in 2022, 3,814 firms operated at least one plant classified as producing auto parts in the United States, with a total of 4,846 plants in this industry. Those plants shipped $278.24 billion in parts and employed 575,338 people, said Jason Miller, a supply chain management professor at Michigan State University. Even the small suppliers shoulder big economic muscle. Miller said 3,045 companies with fewer than 100 employees operated 3,111 manufacturing plants that shipped $17.66 billion in parts and employed 54,561 people. In Michigan alone, data from the Upjohn Institute, a nonprofit, nonpartisan research center in Michigan, calculates that the state has 117,675 auto supplier jobs. Team 1: A typical small supplier On an afternoon in mid-May, Grigowski drives down the highway, going from meeting to meeting as he talks on the phone to the Free Press about his ever-growing to-do list to mitigate the impact tariffs will have on his company. The company, Team 1 Plastics in Albion, Michigan, is a small supplier, bringing in about $20 million in annual revenue. Its size represents the bulk of companies that make up the auto parts supplier base, Grigowski said. "We're little companies in little towns," Grigowski said. "We employ 80 people, so it's a big deal in a town of 7,000. And we have one location, so we're making decisions that impact everything." Team 1 makes the plastic vehicle parts such as covers, switch components or underhood components. Its business is "almost 100% automotive with a little bit of plumbing," Grigowski said. It provides parts to suppliers that eventually end up on vehicles made by General Motors, Ford Motor Co., Stellantis, Toyota, Honda and Subaru, he said. The parts they make are links in the complex supply chain that weaves across North America. The good news for Team 1 is that some of the materials it uses to make plastic parts are made in the United States, so the company dodges paying tariffs there. But dies used to make other parts will face tariffs and have "a very big impact" on the company's books, Grigowski said. Team 1's troubles Grigowski said the dies, which are used to shape or form plastic into the parts, are made from suppliers in Canada and India. India is subject to a 10% tariff, but Canada and Mexico got 25%. "That was a big surprise for us — 25% is a lot," Grigowski said. "A typical die cost might be $70,000, so that's going to be $17,500 more. So it's a lot of money. We typically get 10 dies a year from Canada, so that's $175,000 more. That's real money were I come from.' Grigowski said it is unclear whether the dies will be exempt from the Canada tariffs for being compliant with the U.S-Mexico-Canada Agreement because it is not a part, but rather a piece of capital equipment. "It's unclear if that will be covered or not" under the exemption, Grigowski said. "We will have to figure it out in the next week or so" before putting in new orders. If the dies are not exempt, he said the extra cost for the tariff will be passed onto Team 1's customers. As for the dies Team 1 already ordered before the tariffs were applied, it already had quoted its prices to its customers so it will not raise those prices to offset the added expense. He said some companies in Michigan make dies, but they don't have enough capacity to meet all the suppliers' needs. And, as those companies get busier, they will raise their prices too. On top of that problem, Team 1 also needs a new injection molding machine, which is made in Japan. Grigowski ordered a new one even though the 24% tariff on goods coming from Japan tacks on $72,000 to its price tag. He is hoping the tariff on Japan will be lowered to 10%, bring down the bill to $30,000. It would be less of an impact, "but it's still painful," he said. Finally, because Team 1 has added new clients in recent years, it has outgrown its facilities and needs to make a 50% expansion to its plant. It got a construction quote six months ago and had hoped to break ground this summer. But Grigowski said he has to get a new quote now because of the recently imposed 25% tariffs on imported steel and aluminum. "We're using an American company and an American building supplier and they will use as many American parts as they can, but they will probably import some of the steel and even if they didn't, the domestics will raise their price because they can," Grigowski said. "So it's a lot of things for a company our size to keep track of." He said it's a tough situation that feeds his bigger fear, which is "nothing we hear sounds like it's going to lower the price of the car.' "Cars are already super pricey for most customers," Grigowski said. According to Cox Automotive, in April the average transaction price for a new car was $48,699. "Which means, it could lead to lower volumes for us. Lower volume is never good.' A bigger supplier's strategies Across the state in Auburn Hills, Lucerne International, which makes chassis, powertrains and body structural components for passenger cars and commercial vehicles, is a bigger supplier at the tier one and tier two levels. CEO Buchzeiger declined to provide Lucerne's annual revenue or employee count, but she has been grappling with Trump tariffs since 2018 because of Lucerne's scale and reach into Asia. Trump was threatening to boost tariffs on China to 25% back then too. So she has learned a thing or two about mitigating tariffs that she's willing to pass on to smaller suppliers to help them. "The biggest issue with the supply base, especially with paying more cash up front, is cash flow and liquidity," Buchzeiger said. "The smaller suppliers can't pay that up front … it sucks cash flow out of your organization." Buchzeiger said her company has been working to get more of its supplies from domestic providers. She shares other strategies, such as what to do when the goods clear a port, as duties are due within seven to 10 days. Sometimes, the goods "aren't even at our door yet and the tariffs are due," Buchzeiger said. To offset that problem, Lucerne signed up for a U.S. Customs and Border Protection program called Periodic Monthly Statement, Buchzeiger said. That program allows a company to pay all the tariffs on the 15th of the month. So if the parts clear the border on the 16th, the company has a full month to pay it, she said. Buchzeiger said the company is also applying to be a foreign trade zone. "That allows us to bring the goods in and sit on them and not pay duties until they clear our door because we're considered a foreign trade zone," Buchzeiger said. "It's just to save millions of dollars in our cash flow because the longer we hold onto our money, the better." Buchzeiger agrees with the president's goal that more goods should be made in America. But she said to make that happen, tariffs have to be executed strategically. The U.S. aluminum manufacturers, for example, can produce only 15% of the aluminum her company requires, she said. So Lurcerne has to import 85% of it. With the 25% tariffs on aluminum now, "you just made me uncompetitive to manufacture here. To help me manufacture here, you have to understand where raw materials come from.' Find 'a path out' Like Grigowski, Buchzeiger believes tariffs will raise new vehicle prices. Buchzeiger is on the board for MEMA and MichAuto and she said the expectation is tariffs will drive up the average price of a new car by $5,000 to $7,000. As for the impact on jobs, MEMA, the group that represents the auto parts supplier industry, told the Free Press it did not have a precise estimate for supplier job losses so far due to tariffs. But it referred to the Bureau of Labor Statistics' April report that noted a national net decline of 5,800 U.S. jobs in motor vehicle and parts production since February. The bureau does not distinguish between parts and vehicle manufacturing. In March, steelmaker Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. said it would idle some operations at its Dearborn plant this summer, tied to tariffs. It said it will lay off about 600 employees. In a statement at the time, the company said, 'We believe that, once President Trump's policies take full effect and automotive production is re-shored, we should be able to resume steel production at Dearborn Works.' But MEMA spokesperson Megan Gardner said that based on its internal surveys, a growing number of MEMA's 1,000 members have reported reducing U.S. employment — both production and nonproduction — and investment since the tariffs went into effect. She said many indicated they expect to make further cuts if tariffs remain in place over the next year. Still, Grigowski said he is sticking to his plan to hire a couple people this fall to work on that new machine from Japan. He even sees a potential upside to tariffs if some work that is currently done in Mexico shifts over to Team 1. 'That's a very real possibility," Grigowski said. "We've had some additional inquiries from a Canadian company." He also believes the Trump administration will negotiate tariffs country by country and come up with something workable for the auto industry, creating a "path out" of his problems. "It's like COVID. When it first happened, we thought we'd have to shut our plant down. Then we saw a path out," Grigowski said. "Ultimately, if these tariffs were to stay in place and they drove volumes down dramatically, then yeah, we'd have to make adjustments. We have to hope cooler heads will prevail. We're in a good financial position that we can wait for a solution. I feel like it's a significant problem, but a problem we can start to work.' Jamie L. LaReau is the senior autos writer who covers Ford Motor Co. for the Detroit Free Press. Contact Jamie at jlareau@ Follow her on Twitter @jlareauan. To sign up for our autos newsletter. Become a subscriber.