Bajaj Finance Q1 Results Preview: Up to 19% YoY PAT growth seen, NII may jump up to 24%. 5 other metrics to track
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Mint
4 minutes ago
- Mint
Market Outlook: Why second half of 2025 could belong to mid-cap stocks
In the near term, the Indian market is expected to trade in a narrow range between 24,800 to 25,250 with a negative bias. Key support at the lower level is 24,500, and on the higher side, resistance is at 25,500. This is led by the confirmatory bias of the bazaar, looking forward to the upgradation of future earnings based on the Q1 results and reduction in tariff risk based on a firm inference from the upcoming US trade deal. As said market has a positive bias towards both the factors, hence maintaining the overall optimism in India trading near the 3-year high valuation of 21x forward P/E. Heightened selling by FIIs in India compared to other EM peers due to premium valuation is leading to deep underperformance in the near term. On the other hand, while DII inflows remain constructive, following the consistent accumulation over the past two to three months, the pace of buying has moderated, led by a muted start to the Q1 earnings. Q1 results commenced on a subdued note, primarily due to weaker-than-expected performance from the technology sector. Lately, some good sets of numbers, especially in sectors like banking and cement, have provided a boost to heavyweights. Midcap's earnings have also just started, and they are on a positive note. Broadly, based on the initial data, the total revenue growth of Indian corporates is at +5% with a 10 to 12% earnings growth, providing a positive outlook as the overall results are in line. Hence, the market has a view that this trend can deepen in H2 (July to Dec) based on a good monsoon, reduction in inflation (input cost), rate cuts, and a rise in consumption demand. This could be positive for Midcaps. Similarly, with regard to the U.S. trade talks, the market anticipates a favourable outcome for India, drawing confidence from the nature of recent agreements the U.S. has reached with the U.K. and Japan. Additionally, progress toward finalising the India-UK FTA has further contributed to the constructive outlook. For Japan, the reciprocal tariff has been cut from the proposed 25% to 15%. India is placed at a 26% reciprocal tariff threat. However, trade tariffs are likely to be high in the new protectionist world. Further negotiations are expected following the initial agreement to determine product- and sector-specific terms. These were the two key factors i.e., the downgrade in domestic earnings (lower earnings growth compared to high valuation) and the trade war, which affected the overall performance of H1 (January to June). The trend improved post-April as the risk started to subside. Hence, as the risk further subsides, we can expect a better half in CY25. 7.9 -2.7 Nifty 500 5.5 -2.6 Nifty Midcap 100 4.4 -2.9 Nifty Smallcap 100 1.6 -4.1 H2 has started on a muted note after a good April to June period. H1 was more positive for large caps, while for H2, there is a good chance that midcaps could outperform due to improvement in earnings outlook, reduction in risk, and premium valuation of large caps. That's why the market is trading on a volatile note, in a narrow range in anticipation of more details, which is expected to sustain only in the near-term, from Q1 and the trade deal. Lately, the volatility has increased as DIIs' buying has moderated while FIIs' selling continues. (The author Vinod Nair is Head of Research, Geojit Investments) Disclaimer: This story is for educational purposes only. The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, and not of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.
Mint
4 minutes ago
- Mint
Vinay Rajani of HDFC Sec suggests these 2 ETFs to buy in the near-term
Stocks market today: The Indian stock market commenced the week on a downward trend, with both major indices starting off in the red on Monday, influenced by weak global signals and cautious investor sentiment as the August 1 tariff deadline approaches. The Nifty 50 index began at 24,782.45, decreasing by 54.55 points or 0.22%, while the Sensex also experienced a drop at the opening, falling by 163.12 points or 0.20% to 81,299.97. Market analysts linked the weak opening to global uncertainties and the impending tariff deadline. Ongoing negotiations between India and the United States have remained stalled regarding tariff reductions on agricultural and dairy goods, dampening hopes for an interim agreement before US President Donald Trump's August 1 deadline. This stands in contrast to the framework trade agreement reached between the US and the European Union over the weekend, which has alleviated concerns about a larger trade conflict between these two partners, who represent nearly a third of global commerce. Nifty 50 experienced its fourth consecutive weekly decline, shedding 0.53% and correcting 3.36% from its recent swing high of 25,669. Nifty 50 closed below its 50-day EMA (24953) for the first time since April 11, 2025, and also violated the previous swing low support of 24,882 on a closing basis. This bearish setup follows the formation of a double top pattern near 25,250 levels on July 24, 2025. Indicators and oscillators on the Nifty 50 daily chart have turned bearish, with MACD falling below the equilibrium line and RSI dropping below the 50 benchmark, signaling further weakness. Immediate support for the Nifty 50 is identified at 24,742, which represents the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the entire rally from the April 2025 low (21,743) to the recent swing high (25,669). A break below 24,742 could lead to a further slide towards the positional support of 24,500, a strong base formed in June 2025. In contrast, Bank Nifty's technical setup appears relatively stronger than the Nifty 50, as it continues to hold above its 50-day EMA and an upward-sloping trendline support on the daily chart. While Nifty Midcap and Smallcap indices closed on a weak note, strong buying support is anticipated after a further couple of percentage points of fall from current levels. The Nifty Healthcare index currently appears strongest on the charts, whereas the CPSE index has registered a fresh breakdown and is expected to decline further. Despite supportive factors like a falling Dollar Index and lower Brent crude oil prices, which typically benefit Indian equity markets, this advantage has not been reflected in the benchmark indices, as they have significantly underperformed global equity markets in the recent past. Nifty 50 Strategy: The short-term trend for Nifty 50 has clearly turned weak. To negate this downtrend, the index needs to decisively surpass its recent swing high near 25,250. Traders are advised to adopt a bearish stance, though with expectations of a limited downside for the index. A strong base is observable in the Nifty 50 around the 24,500-24,600 band, which could be utilised by traders to exit short positions and potentially look for opportunities to initiate fresh long positions. Hong Kong equity market benchmark index Hang-seng has been forming higher tops and higher bottoms on daily chart. Index has surpassed the crucial resistance of previous swing high of 24,875. Hangseng is one of the best performing indices from global equity markets year till date and same is expected to continue further. We recommend going long in NIPPON INDIA ETF HANG SENG BEES for utilising our bullish view on Hang-seng Index. FMCG sector seems to have bottomed out as many largecap FMCG stocks have reached oversold zone on the short-term charts. The primary trend of the majority of the FMCG stocks has been bullish as they have been holding their trend above the medium-to-long-term moving averages. FMCG is one of the sectors which underperformed Nifty 50 in this calendar year and from here we can expect mean reversion by outperformance from it. FMCG sector as a consumption theme backed by healthy monsoon progress and strong quarterly updates could perform well in coming months. Disclaimer: The views and recommendations given in this article are those of individual analysts. These do not represent the views of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before taking any investment decisions.
Mint
4 minutes ago
- Mint
Indian stock market: Nifty 50 slips below 25,000 level. Where's it headed in short-term?
Indian stock market: Indian stock market benchmarks began Monday's session on a weak note, weighed down by uncertainty surrounding trade negotiations with the U.S. and disappointing earnings from Kotak Mahindra Bank, which affected investor sentiment. The BSE Sensex fell by 326 points, or 0.4%, to 81,136, while the Nifty50 declined 95 points, or 0.38%, to 24,736 around 9:18 am. However, markets quickly rebounded, recovering much of the initial losses by 9:40 am. The Nifty continued its downward trend on Friday, falling below the key support level of 24,900 to close at 24,837, weighed down by negative global signals and underwhelming corporate earnings. Persistent selling dominated the session, leading to a cautious and corrective movement in prices. ' The major supports are at 24450 and 24000, but we will begin the week expecting downsides to not extend beyond the 24750-650 region. A swing higher is expected this week, but oscillator divergences seen in intraday periodicities that have signalled the same, are yet to be visible in larger time frames. This gives room for downside momentum to prevail over for some more time. However, direct rise above 24922 could initiate short covering. In such a scenario, 25324 may be played for, even though 25000 region may resist initially,' said Anand James, Chief Market Strategist, Geojit Investments Limited. According to brokerage firm Choice Broking, Nifty is trading below its 20- and 50-day EMAs, indicating a bearish short-term trend. ' The next immediate support to watch is at 24,750, and if this level breaks, further correction may push the index down toward 24,580, near the 100-day EMA—an important technical support zone. On the upside, a decisive close above the 25,150 level would be needed to shift momentum positively, potentially opening targets near 25,500 and 25,700 in the coming week. Until then, the market outlook remains sideways to bearish, and a cautious stance with close monitoring of global and domestic triggers is advisable to navigate the prevailing volatility effectively,' the brokerage firm said. Support Levels: 24750 - 24600 Resistance Levels: 25000-25600 Overall Bias: Sideways to Bearish Bank Nifty ended lower on Friday, closing near 57,010 after facing resistance and rejection in the 57,200–57,300 zone, indicating ongoing consolidation with mixed momentum. The brokerage firm said that the index is currently range-bound, with immediate resistance around 57,000; a sustained breakout above this level could trigger fresh buying, targeting resistance at 57,630. ' Breaking beyond 57,630 may fuel stronger bullish momentum toward higher targets of 58,000 and 58,500. Conversely, on the downside, a break below the critical support level of 56,275 could lead to a deeper corrective move toward 55,550 and 55,150. Given the current range-bound price action and uncertain momentum, a cautious approach with sound risk management is advisable for the coming week. Watching for a decisive close above 57,000 resistance or a break below 56,275 support will be critical to identifying the next meaningful directional move in Bank Nifty,' it added. Bias- Sideways to Bearish Disclaimer: This story is for educational purposes only. The views and recommendations above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, not Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.
