Why Ben Shelton will break the American men's tennis Grand Slam drought

USA Today

2 days ago

The incomprehensible 22-year Grand Slam drought in American men's tennis will end soon. Maybe not this year, maybe not even next. But it's going to happen, and we're not going to have to wait too much longer.
Ben Shelton is going to do it.
The 22-year old from Atlanta via the University of Florida won his first Masters 1000-level title on Thursday night at the Canadian Open, beating Karen Khachanov 6-7, 6-4, 7-6 in a terrific final.
Sure, you can put some asterisks on the significance of this tournament – namely, that No. 1 Jannik Sinner and No. 2 Carlos Alcaraz opted to take an extra week off after meeting in both the French Open and Wimbledon finals. Those two have dominated the Grand Slams for the last two years, and Shelton – to this point – has yet to prove he belongs in their company.
But what Shelton has proven this summer will serve him extremely well in the chase to remove Andy Roddick's 2003 U.S. Open title from the genre of frustrating tennis trivia. At this moment, Shelton has a very good argument as the third-best player in the world.
If not him, then who?
It's not Alexander Zverev, who is technically No. 3 in the rankings but hasn't felt like a threat to win anything important since Sinner embarrassed him in the Australian Open final back in January.
It's hard to make an argument for Taylor Fritz, the highest-ranked American at No. 4, especially after Shelton dismantled him 6-4, 6-3 in the Toronto semifinals and showed that he simply has a higher gear of athleticism and shot-making when he's playing well.
Jack Draper? The British lad is 29-9 on the year with his own Masters 1000 title this year at Indian Wells. But his record in the Slams doesn't measure up to Shelton's and hasn't shown the same level of physical durability, particularly in a best-of-five setting.
Some would argue it's still Novak Djokovic, and they may have a point. Despite slipping to No. 7 in the world, one spot behind Shelton, he's made the semifinals in all three Slams this year and he's still Novak freaking Djokovic. But at a physically diminished 38 and barely playing a real schedule anymore (he's skipping both big North American hard court tournaments leading into the U.S. Open), it would take everything breaking his way to win his 25th Grand Slam.
At the moment, nobody else is really a factor.
So here's the overall takeaway: Yes, Sinner and Alcaraz are going to win most of the big titles over the next few years as long as they stay healthy, much like Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal in the mid-2000s. But they're not going to meet in every Slam final. Injuries happen, bad days happen. Especially at the U.S. Open, we often see players who have had long, grueling years struggle to find the energy it takes to deal with the heat and all the other unique elements of playing in New York.
And when it's inevitably someone besides Alcaraz or Sinner hoisting a big trophy at some point, who's most likely to pick up the pieces?
It's Shelton – and on a hard court, it's not particularly close.
Though Canada was just his third title, and by far his biggest since turning pro three years ago, we are seeing some signs now that he's headed for a potentially special career.
This win wasn't a fluke. Rather, it was the culmination of a summer in which Shelton's game is breaking through in ways we haven't really seen before.
He's always had the elements to be a top player: Huge lefty serve, dynamic athleticism, weaponry with the forehand and better-than-average net skills. He's also shown a flair for stepping up at the Grand Slams with two semifinals and two quarterfinals in just 12 appearances. By any measure, a 30-12 record at the Slams is exceptional for a young player.
But Shelton's father and coach, Bryan Shelton, has stressed repeatedly that Ben isn't a finished product. And their approach to addressing his weaknesses has been targeted and methodical.
The eye test, particularly since Shelton made his run to the Wimbledon quarterfinals (where Sinner stopped him in three close sets), says that it's starting to pay off in areas like decision-making, consistency from the baseline and deployment of his backhand slice to change the rhythm of points.
Even on return, where the advanced stats show that Shelton is one of the three worst players in the top-50, there were some interesting numbers in Toronto. Across his five matches, Shelton won 36.2% of return points. While that's basically average for a top-50 player, it's significantly better than the 32% he's posted this year. It's also worth noting that he broke Fritz and Brandon Nakashima – two of the seven hardest guys on tour to break – three times each.
It was much the same story the week before in Washington. Despite throwing in a semifinal stinker against Alejandro Davidovich Fokina, Shelton won 38.3 percent of return points across four matches.
If that's real improvement and not just statistical noise, Shelton is a threat to win the U.S. Open this year. And if he can merely become an above-average returner on a regular basis, a Grand Slam title is probably going to happen at some point.
Shelton's first Masters title was a major breakthrough in his career, and at 22 made him the youngest American to do so since Roddick at the very same tournament in 2003.
Guess what happened next? A few weeks later, he lit up New York and became a U.S. Open champion.
The way Shelton played this week, don't be surprised if he follows the same path to a Grand Slam title.