Why India Should Be Wary As China Tries To 'Realign' Pak And Taliban
The Taliban-led Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan (IEA) is now edging towards completing its fourth year in power. In the past four years, India's outreach to the regime has progressed incrementally, transitioning to a more overt but cautiously pragmatic engagement. The latest phone call between India's External Affairs Minister, Dr S. Jaishankar, and the interim Foreign Minister of the IEA, Amir Khan Muttaqi, marked an important milestone in this engagement.
The Meeting With Muttaqi
The External Affairs Minister (EAM) expressed gratitude towards Muttaqi for condemning the terror attack in Pahalgam and appreciated that they did not buy into attempts to sow distrust between the two countries, an indirect reference to misleading claims made by Pakistan. Over the years, New Delhi's strategy has evolved, making sure that the Taliban are cognisant of their security considerations while slowly committing to increasing its humanitarian and development cooperation with the country.
In January this year, Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri had met Muttaqi in Dubai, the most high-level engagement between the two sides. This also came in the aftermath of the deterioration of ties between Pakistan and Afghanistan as the two engaged in strikes and counter-strikes in December 2024. For India, a reduction in Pakistan's influence in Kabul gives it more space to increase its engagement and better secure its strategic and security interests in the region. The importance of Chabahar port for trade, delivery of humanitarian assistance to Afghanistan and distancing Kabul from its over-dependence on Islamabad is also seen as an avenue for cooperation.
All Are Warming Up To Taliban
However, while New Delhi has increased the tempo of its outreach, other countries in the region have been more forthcoming in their engagement. Russia recently removed the Taliban from its list of terror organisations, albeit temporarily. Iran and Central Asian Republics, such as Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan and even Tajikistan, have also increased their engagement with the group. The Taliban also leverages these developments, reiterating their neutral foreign policy based on mutual interests and a quid pro quo approach.
When the latest conflict between India and Pakistan was still going on, the Taliban highlighted their relationship with both countries and urged them to show restraint and resolve the issues through dialogue. While India has increased its outreach to the group in the last few weeks, with the call and the April 27 meeting with an Indian delegation led by the Joint Secretary from the MEA, Muttaqi has also been engaging with his counterparts from Pakistan and China.
China Plays 'Broker'
Following up on the meeting of the Special Representatives of Pakistan and China in Kabul on May 10 in which they met Muttaqi, the Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister of Pakistan, Mohammad Ishaq Dar, and Muttaqi convened in China for a trilateral consultation with China's Foreign Affairs Minister, Wang Yi, on May 20-21. The three sides reaffirmed their commitment to develop their relations based on mutual interests and good neighbourliness. They also committed to increasing cooperation in the economic and connectivity front and agreed to expand the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) to Afghanistan.
At the same time, the statement from the emirate did not mention any security cooperation; the Pakistani and Chinese statements referred to their opposition to all forms of terrorism and their commitment to counter it through increased security and law enforcement cooperation. Muttaqi also committed not to let Afghan territory be used against any of its neighbouring countries in his bilateral meeting with Wang Yi.
China's Foreign Affairs Ministry also released an outcome statement on the meeting, highlighting Beijing's resolve to assist in increasing the diplomatic engagement between Afghanistan and Pakistan. In the statement, Yi mentioned that both Kabul and Islamabad have agreed to exchange ambassadors 'in principle' and that Beijing will provide all assistance to improve their ties.
Not All Is Well In Afghanistan
The economic commitments made in the statements still have a long way to go, and no progress has been made on the CPEC, with none expected in the near future. But in the aftermath of the conflict between India and Pakistan, China's bid to realign Pakistan and Afghanistan under its sphere can be problematic for New Delhi. For the Taliban, while a good relationship with India allows it to assert its independence from Islamabad, it is for New Delhi to see if its ties with the Taliban can reap the benefits it wishes to get. Even as the relationship between Afghanistan and Pakistan has deteriorated significantly in the past three-and-a-half years, the two sides have been trying to address their issues and re-engage.
In the aftermath of India's military strikes on terrorist infrastructure in Pakistan, certain terror groups in Afghanistan, particularly the Al Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS), released a statement calling the strikes an 'act of aggression' and resolved to unleash a 'jihad' against the country.
As India advances its relationship with the regime, it should also be mindful of the threat posed by the presence of these groups in the country. While the Taliban deny it and deem all international reports as being politically motivated, there are still several terrorist outfits functioning in Afghanistan. The Taliban's ability and willingness to counter them and other groups are still circumspect. While the current regional status quo does give New Delhi more space and incentive to work with the regime in Kabul, the Emirate's ties with China and Pakistan, and the latter's growing coordination on Afghanistan, do pose a huge risk to New Delhi's outreach.
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