Is CoreWeave Stock Expensive After A Whopping 4x Rise?

Forbes

6 hours ago

CANADA - 2025/05/23: In this photo illustration, the CoreWeave (Core Weave) logo is seen displayed ... More on a smartphone screen. (Photo Illustration by Thomas Fuller/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images)
You've likely seen some extreme fluctuations in the stock markets recently. However, few have been as striking as CoreWeave's (NASDAQ: CRWV) path since its IPO in late March. The cloud computing company's stock has dramatically surged, soaring from $40 to $147 – a remarkable 3.6x return in just a few months. So what's fueling this astronomical rise, and more importantly, is it sustainable? We'll explore these questions. But, if you're looking for potential profits with reduced volatility, the High Quality portfolio has significantly outperformed the S&P 500, yielding over 91% returns since its inception. Separately, check out – Will Adobe Stock See Higher Levels?
CoreWeave is not your average cloud provider. While Amazon Web Services and Microsoft Azure provide a broad range of computing services, CoreWeave concentrates specifically on high-performance GPU-accelerated infrastructure tailored for AI and machine learning workloads. Consider them as the equipment rental service in a scenario where everyone suddenly requires advanced, specialized machinery without wanting to purchase it outright.
Do they have clients? Microsoft, their largest customer, accounts for over 60% of their revenue. For organizations embarking on AI development, it makes complete sense to rent CoreWeave's computing capabilities instead of committing tremendous capital expenditures for their own GPU farms or opting for a hybrid approach between purchasing and leasing. Why purchase when renting is an option, especially as technology evolves so quickly?
However, it's the numbers that make things intriguing—and somewhat concerning. CoreWeave operates 250,000 NVIDIA GPUs across 32 data centers. That sounds impressive until you find out that Microsoft allegedly owns 485,000 GPUs, and Meta is projected to have a staggering 1.3 million by year-end. CoreWeave is competing at high levels, but they're still a relatively small player. The demand is so overwhelming that CoreWeave is aggressively expanding, resulting in significant debt levels. But here's a crucial point: NVIDIA owns 7% of CoreWeave and maintains a solid partnership with them.
The growth metrics are nearly unbelievable. CoreWeave's revenue soared by 12,000% – increasing from just $16 million in 2022 to $1.9 billion in 2024. The forecasts are astounding: $5 billion anticipated in 2025, with $12 billion predicted for the following year.
This kind of expansion accounts for why investors are ready to pay 25 times the trailing twelve-month revenue for the stock. Yet interestingly, the average analyst price target is about half of the current market price, indicating that even the experts believe things might be getting somewhat overheated.
Having Microsoft constitute 60% of your revenue is both a boon and a prospective drawback. If Microsoft chose to decrease its dependence on CoreWeave tomorrow, it could pose a serious issue. However, here's the critical question – in today's AI-driven market, would CoreWeave genuinely struggle to attract other clients?
The demand for AI infrastructure is skyrocketing across sectors. From startups crafting the next ChatGPT competitor to established enterprises incorporating AI into their operations, everyone requires computing power. The more significant question may be whether CoreWeave can scale quickly enough to satisfy demand, rather than if demand exists in the short term.
Indeed, aggressive growth comes with sacrifices. CoreWeave is depleting cash with a net income margin of -39%. They're prioritizing expansion over profits, wagering that gaining market share today will lead to profits tomorrow. It's a high-stakes endeavor that demands solid determination and substantial financial resources. The elevated debt required for acquiring more GPUs adds another layer of complexity. Yet if the revenue forecasts are accurate, this debt should become more manageable over time.
In summary, CoreWeave is an intriguing example of timing and specialization. They've positioned themselves impeccably for the AI surge, but they're also wagering heavily that this boom will persist. The stock's sharp ascent mirrors both the potential and the risks embedded in this strategy.
For investors, the concern isn't whether AI infrastructure is critical – it undoubtedly is. The concern is whether CoreWeave can preserve its growth trajectory while navigating its risks, especially regarding client concentration and debt levels. And perhaps most crucially, whether the current valuation provides any margin for the inevitable bumps along the road.
One thing's for certain: CoreWeave's narrative is far from concluded, and it's set to be an intriguing journey for anyone daring enough to strap in at the present lofty valuations. Now, taming valuation contextually is just one of the many methods we utilize while constructing the Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio which, with a collection of 30 stocks, has a proven track record of comfortably outperforming the S&P 500 over the last 4-year period. Why is that? As a group, HQ Portfolio stocks delivered superior returns with less risk compared to the benchmark index; less of a roller-coaster experience, as evident in HQ Portfolio performance metrics.